2025 New York Mets Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/5/2025

The New York Mets earned their wild card spot on the final day of the regular season and then went on to extend their season all the way to the NLCS. They beat the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild-Card Series and then dominated the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS, beating their division rivals 3-1, with a +11-run differential. However, their magic ended there as they were knocked out by the eventual World Series Champions Los Angeles Dodgers. The Mets finished with an 89-73 record in the regular season, which put them six games behind the Phillies in the division standings.

Francisco Lindor had an incredible season for the Mets, as he led the team with a 7.0 WAR, which also ranked inside the Top 10 in the MLB. He finished with 33 homeruns, while leading the team with 91 RBIs and 29 stolen bases. Pete Alonso led the club with 34 homeruns while tallying 88 RBIs, as Alonso was the lone Mets player to appear in all 162 games last season. Brandon Nimmo had 23 homeruns and 90 RBIs, while Mark Vientos quietly dominated at the plate with 27 homeruns, 71 RBIs, and was second on the Mets with a 3.2 WAR. Jose Iglesias was another unsung hero for the Mets, as he finished third on the team with a 3.1 WAR while hitting .337 and recording an OPS of .830 in 85 games. Overall, the Mets lineup finished seventh in the league in runs, sixth in homeruns, ninth in OPS, and 10th in hits.

Their pitching staff was average last season and held back by injuries once again. As a team, they finished 15th in ERA and 19th in WHIP. Luis Severino and Sean Manaea were inning eaters last season, as both starters recorded more than 180 innings pitched. Manaea led the way with a 3.0 WAR while posting a 3.47 ERA across 181.2 innings while Severino posted a 3.91 ERA and a 1.6 WAR across 182 innings. David Peterson led the starting rotation with a 2.90 ERA, and he finished second on the team with a 2.8 WAR. Jose Quintana was a reliable arm as well, pitching 170.1 innings while finishing with a 3.75 ERA and he was third on the team with a 2.5 WAR.

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New York Mets Key Additions/Losses

The Mets lost a lot from last year’s roster once their season came to an end. They saw pitchers Adam Ottavino, Quintana, Brooks Raley, and Luis Severino, as well as position players Harrison Bader, Jose Iglesias, and J.D. Martinez, hit the free agent market. The team also declined the option on reliever Phil Maton, and they non-tendered reliever Alex Young.

Their losses were nothing compared to what they have brought in. They managed to bring back Manaea, Alonso, Ryne Stanek, and Jesse Winker while boosting their outfield by acquiring Jose Siri from the Tampa Bay Rays and signing Juan Soto to a long-term contract. New York also signed pitchers Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, Griffin Canning, and A.J. Minter to their roster while taking fliers on Jose Urena, Adbert Alzolay, Anthony Gose, and Genesis Cabrera. They also added some depth by signing infielder Nick Madrigal and outfielder Joey Meneses.

New York Mets Prospect Outlook

The Mets are in a win now position and do not need to wait for any up-and-coming prospects. However, they are stacked in the minor leagues as well, with Luisangel Acuna expected to make an impact on the big-league club, and the Mets have three other prospects in the MLB Top 100 Prospects rankings. Right-handed pitcher Brandon Sproat is the Mets highest rated prospect and is the 46th ranked prospect in the MLB. Behind Sproat is utility man Jett Williams, who is the 57th ranked prospect, and outfielder Carson Benge, who rounds out the list as the 100th ranked prospect in baseball.

New York Mets X-Factors

Pitcher Health- The rotation is going to start the season missing Manaea and Montas. Aside from those two, you have Kodai Senga, who missed an extended period of time last season on the injured list, and the remaining rotation is highly questionable. Holmes comes in as a converted reliever hoping to be a mainstay in the rotation, while David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn, and Canning are nothing to be excited about. The Mets have a strong lineup that should produce night in and night out. However, if Manaea, Montas, and Senga have lingering health issues, the Mets could be limited on just how far they can go this season.

Back half of the Lineup- The Mets have a strong top five in their lineup. Lindor, Soto, and Alonso at the top of the order is a nightmare for opposing pitchers, while Nimmo and Vientos are more than capable of cleaning things up after the top three. After them, the lineup becomes just as questionable as they lack depth in their rotation. Adding Siri gives the Mets a speed/power bat to rotate with Starling Marte and Tyrone Taylor in center field, but that’s still weak compared to some deep lineups like the Atlanta Braves or Los Angeles Dodgers have. Winker and Jeff McNeil are past their prime, while Francisco Alvarez is a wild card at the plate. The potential is there, but the Mets will be heavily reliant on the top of their order.

New York Mets Expectations

The Mets should be right there with the Phillies and Braves at the top of the NL East standings. Last season, they made it to the NLCS, and they managed to improve their roster heading into this campaign. Internally, the Mets are expecting themselves to compete for a World Series, while externally, it is not hard to see them back in the NLCS. They have a lot of star power to be excited about heading into the season. However, similarly to the Braves, their lingering injuries may keep them from having a hot start right out of the gates, which could allow the Phillies to build a strong division lead from the get-go. Nonetheless, these Mets are going to be one of the best teams in baseball.

New York Mets Notable Odds:

Win Total: 92.5

World Series Champions- +1100

Pennant Winners- +650

Division Winners- +195

NL MVP- Juan Soto +500

NL MVP- Francisco Lindor +2200

NL MVP- Pete Alonso +5000

NL Cy Young- Kodai Senga +5000

NL Cy Young- Sean Manaea +7000

NL Rookie of the Year- Luisangel Acuna +3500

2025 New York Mets Predictions

To start, this team has the potential to win 100 games. However, their rotation is going to keep them from that feat. In fact, I like the under on the project win total set at 92.5. Their rotation is going to be less than 100% to start the season, and they have a rotation built on some injury prone arms. They may improve slightly on their 89 wins from last season, but the division is going to be highly competitive, and the Mets have some depth issues. However, the regular season record doesn’t matter, as we witnessed the 89-win Mets reach the NLCS. And at full strength, this roster could beat anyone in a series format. At +1100, they provide solid value as a dark horse world series contender, and you would get a nice return taking them to win the National League (+650), which could happen, especially if their division rivals Braves or Phillies overtake the Dodgers. I still expect the Phillies to win the division, but these Mets can win it all if they are healthy come October.

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Start:	May 21, 2025 @ 10:10 PM
Expert:	August Young
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2025 New York Mets Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

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