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2021 New York Mets Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series

by Chris Vasile - 2/25/2021

Jacob deGrom New York Mets

It has only been five seasons since the New York Mets last appeared in the World Series, but don’t tell their fan base that. It feels like forever ago. However, the Mets may be onto something this year, which has me thinking the end of the world is near.

In last year’s shortened season, the Mets finished with a record of 26-34, which was good enough to finish fourth in the NL East. Heck, the Marlins even finished with a better record than they did. If you look back to their last couple of full seasons, they’ve finished below .500 in two of the last three seasons and haven’t even sniffed the playoffs. So, what makes this year so different? Well, I like their batting order, and the pitching rotation looks excellent on paper. If only it can meet and surpass expectations.

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The New York Mets kick off their 2021 campaign on April 1 with a six-game road trip that will see them visit Nationals Park for three games with the Nats and then head to Citizens Bank Park for three with the Phillies. From there, the Mets return home for three against the Marlins and four against the Phillies. Coming into this season, the Mets sit at +900 to win the World Series (fifth favorite), +550 to win the NL Pennant (fourth favorite) and +140 to win the NL East (second favorite). Their season win total sits at 90.5.

Mets 2021 Projected Lineup

The Met’s made somewhat of a splash this offseason as they were able to acquire Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Indians in a blockbuster trade. Lindor will be a big addition to the Mets’ lineup, while Carrasco will need to regain some form if he’s to help the Mets’ cause.

  1. Brandon Nimmo
  2. Jeff McNeil
  3. Francisco Lindor
  4. Michael Conforto
  5. Pete Alonso
  6. Dominic Smith
  7. J.D. Davis
  8. James McCann
  9. Pitchers Spot

As you can see, this Mets’ lineup features a lot of power but also a lot of swing and misses. Projections on this lineup have three guys, Lindor, Conforto, Alonso, all hitting over 30 home runs this year, which means the Mets could put up a ton of runs. At the top of the order, Nimmo is a solid leadoff man who has a bit of pop in his bat and has the best OBP of the bunch. His job will be to set the lineup up for success by getting on base and letting hitters two through five do the bulk of the damage.

If we dive deeper into that quarter of players and go back to the last full season (2019), you’ll notice the abundance of power they possess. In 2019, those four players combined for 141 home runs, with Alonso leading the way with a whopping 53 of them. Lindor has both pop in the bat and speed once on base to wreak havoc for opposing pitchers. Once he’s on base, you know that Conforto and Alonso will get pitches to hit.

That’s where the bottom of the lineup comes into play. Smith, Davis and McCann will need to pitch in offensively to keep pitchers honest. In 2019, the three combined for 51 home runs, and none of them had an average worse than .273. I’m telling you now; there’s a lot to like with this Mets roster.

Mets 2021 Projected Rotation & Closer

On paper, the New York Mets should have one of the best rotations in the Majors. Unfortunately, the game isn’t played on paper, thus leaving the Mets with their fingers crossed that their starting rotation will hold up over the course of 162 games. There is no mistaking who the “ace” of the staff is. Jacob DeGrom has won two of the last three NL Cy Young awards and has been called the best pitcher in the game by far more than just people who vote on these awards. DeGrom is coming off a season in which he started 12 games and posted a 4-2 record with an ERA of just 2.38. DeGrom has had a sub 2.45 ERA in each of the last three seasons and it would be foolish to think he can’t do it again.

Behind DeGrom, the Mets will rely on a quartet of pitchers that includes Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Taijuan Walker and David Peterson. Having watched Stroman pitch firsthand for my hometown Jays, he’s by far the most talented out of that quarter and should be eager to bounce back after missing all of last season to injury. Perhaps the key piece to the rotation will be the aforementioned Carrasco, who was also acquired in the Lindor trade. Carrasco started 12 games last season but pitched to a 3-4 win/loss record. However, he did have a 2.91 ERA, which is his best era since 2014. If he can regain some of his form from his time in Cleveland, he can be a dominant pitcher in the majors once again. 

In terms of the bullpen, the Mets will rely on Edwin Diaz to close out games. Diaz is a walking gas can, although he managed to save six games last season for the team and 26 the year before that. There’s nothing to like about this bullpen, so the starters better go deep into the majority of the games if the Mets want to contend for real.

Mets 2021 Predictions

FanGraphs projects the Mets to finish the year with a 91-71 record, which would be the fourth-best record in the Majors. It’s hard to imagine a team making that kind of jump after finishing below .500 in three of the last four seasons, but as I mentioned above, I really like what the Mets have done this offseason and I think the offense and DeGrom can carry them far this year. If I had to take their win total, I’d go “over” the total only because the rest of the division figures to be on a downward trend.

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