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2022 New York Mets Predictions and Odds to Win the World Series

by Devon Rymarchuk - 4/6/2022

New York Mets predictions and odds to win World Series Brandon Nimmo

World Series Odds: +1500

NL East Division Odds: +135

Over/Under Win Total: 90.5

The New York Mets will begin their season coming off a stretch of free agent signings that even Met fans have a hard time believing. They’ve added pitching depth through the likes of Dodgers ace Max Scherzer, Oakland A’s stalwart Chris Bassitt, and a reliable bullpen arm in Adam Ottavino. Not only did the Mets front office address some much-needed pitching depth, but they were able to deepen their bench with proven utility man Eduardo Escobar and fortify their outfield by signing a true CF in Starling Marte and plugging the hole left by the departure of Michael Conforto with the gritty play of former Oakland Athletic Mark Canha. In summary, the New York Mets aren’t planning to compete this year. They’re planning to win.

If it wasn’t clear to baseball fans then, when Steve Cohen finalized a deal to purchase the New York Mets in September of 2020, it should be clear as day now, the Mets are in win now mode. It also appears that no matter what obstacle’s thrown in their direction, Cohen is determined to overcome it.

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The real question will be if the Mets can stay healthy all season and live up to the hype. That remains to be seen. The Mets have failed to make the playoffs in five consecutive seasons, but it hasn’t been for a lack of talent. The Mets have had a barrage of injuries year in and year out and have yet to discover a solution that keeps their guys healthy and on the diamond for a full season.  When healthy, the Mets have without a doubt the best rotation in the NL East heading into the season with the addition of the Scherzer and Bassitt. Marte will also be a huge addition to a lineup where he could bat anywhere up and down the order. Francisco Lindor is coming into the second year of his max deal with a big chip on his shoulder and is determined to prove he was worth every penny.

Brandon Nimmo is coming off a career year at the plate. And with 2022 being the final year of his contract, he’ll be looking to continue that success so he can earn himself a big extension at the end of the year. The heart and soul of this team, Pete Alonso, led the Mets in every major hitting category last year and looks primed to lead the Mets once again while all signs of his running mate Jeff McNeil point to him returning to his scrappy, whatever-it-takes-to-get-on-base approach at the plate that saw him slash a robust .319 BA over his first 3 seasons in the league. The starting lineup looks as followed:

Projected lineup

1. RF Brandon Nimmo

2. CF Starling Marte

3. SS Francisco Lindor

4. 1B Pete Alonso

5. DH Robinson Canó

6. LF Mark Canha

7. 3B Eduardo Escobar

8. 2B Jeff McNeil

9. C James McCann

The big question for the Mets is whether the offense, which ranked 27th in runs scored last season, can live up to expectations. Bounce-back years from Francisco Lindor, James McCann and Jeff McNeil would go a long way. Lindor probably had his worst career as a professional baseball player last season. Whether it was because of the new scenery or him just struggling against different pitching in the NL East, he certainly didn’t have the year that he was hoping for. Lindor finished hitting .230 with only 20 home runs, and that batting average is the worst of his whole career.

Fangraphs projects the Mets to score 4.66 runs/game, which would rank seventh in the National League. That seems like a fair projection, because, despite their reinforcements, unless Pete Alonso has another 50-home run season in him, the Mets’ hitters can’t quite match the power of some of the top hitting teams in the NL. Where the Mets can make up ground on some of the top teams in the NL is their deep pitching rotation and above-average defense.

Projected rotation

1. RHP Jacob deGrom

2. RHP Max Scherzer

3. RHP Chris Bassitt

4. RHP Taijuan Walker

5. RHP Carlos Carrasco

The Mets have historically lived and died by their pitching, and that is the case for 2022. The Mets have their best roster in years, with a loaded rotation that features two of the most dominant pitchers of this generation in deGrom and Scherzer. For years, Washington Nationals ace Max Scherzer was deGrom’s chief rival for the honor of being the best pitcher in the majors. Health concerns do loom over deGrom heading into 2022, which fans and bettors will be playing close attention to -- as deGrom goes the Mets will go.

Taijuan Walker had a hot and cold 2021 season with the Mets. He pitched so well in the first half of the season that he was named to the National League All-Star team. Then reality hit. Walker had missed most of the 2020 season, and fatigue set in right after the All-Star Game. His failures were magnified because the Mets did not have deGrom to bail them out when things started to go south. Walker needs to show more durability in the second half and not worry if he doesn’t recreate the magic of last year’s first half.

Bullpen

Closer: RHP Edwin Díaz

Setup: RHP Trevor May, RHP Adam Ottavino

Middle: RHP Miguel Castro, RHP Seth Lugo, LHP Chasen Shreve, RHP Drew Smith

Long: RHP Trevor Williams

The Mets bullpen appears to be average. Edwin Diaz has been the closer for years now, and he’s generally steady, although he is prone to a meltdown here and there. The Mets’ biggest problem is the lack of a shutdown left-handed setup man. The biggest addition is veteran Adam Ottavino, a former Rockie, Yankee, and Red Sox. He is coming off an up-and-down year in Boston. There’s no denying Ottavino’s raw ability; he consistently posts top-quartile spin rates and spin efficiency numbers on his fastball and slider. Inconsistency over his career has led Ottavino to more of a set-up man than a closer.

The Mets are full of talent, as much as the Amazin’ Avenue have seen in years. In typical Mets fashion, it is not normal for them to live up to the names on the roster. I believe the Mets will be a playoff team and battle it out until the final week for the division pennant. Look for the Mets to get just Under 90 wins and make the playoffs in a loaded NL East.

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