2023 Preakness Stakes Jockeys: Handicapping and Expert Analysis

by Joey House - 5/19/2023

Analyzing jockey performance is another key facet to handicapping horse races effectively. The style of the rider is almost as important as the running style of the horse. While the Preakness is a slightly shorter race than the Derby, it still provides unique situations to test a jockey's mettle. The selection of pace is one of the strategic decisions that a jockey and trainer face. All statistics for earnings, winning percentage, and ITM% are only from the 2023 racing season.

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PP 1- National Treasure (4-1): John Velazquez

John Velazquez looks to complete his own, personal Triple Crown with a win Saturday. A three-time Kentucky Derby and two-time Belmont winner, Velazquez has failed to visit the winners' circle for the Preakness. He's won 18% of the 182 races he's ridden and is hitting for a 45% clip ITM. I'm not sure he can win, but I believe he'll have National Treasure factoring in the exotic payouts.

PP 2- Chase the Chaos (50-1): Sheldon Russell

Born in Louisiana but raised in England, Sheldon Russell has been a stalwart on the Maryland circuit for the last 16 campaigns. This will be his third Preakness in his career, with his best finish coming in 2020 in 6th place. Chase the Chaos struggles in the dirt, so it doesn't appear that Sheldon will be improving on his best finish this year.

PP 3- Mage (8-5): Javier Castellano

All eyes will be on Mage and Javier Castellano as they try to pick up the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Preakness history says that Mage is in good hands, with Castellano winning with two of the nine mounts he's had in the Preakness. He's currently in 5th place in earnings with $6.2 million and has won 15% of his 380 races but finished ITM 44% of the time. Mage's running style isn't the best for this short distance. However, if anybody can handle the change, it's Castellano.

PP 4- Coffeewithchris (20-1): Jamie Rodriguez

Another one of the local jockeys on the Maryland circuit, Rodriquez makes his Preakness debut this year on Coffeewithchris. He's ranked 26th in earnings this year with $2.7 million, is winning 26% of his races, and ITM in an impressive 63%. He recently tied a Laurel Park record by winning seven races on one card. This could be one of those Cinderella stories, with the first-time jockey winning on a big longshot, but I doubt it.

PP 5- Red Route One (10-1): Joel Rosario

Just like John Velazquez, Joel Rosario just needs a Preakness victory to complete his personal Triple Crown. He's been the bridesmaid on four different occasions at the Preakness, most recently last year on Epicenter. He's having a good year so far in earnings with a little over $6 million, but not spectacular with the other metrics winning at a 12% rate and ITM at 39%. Red Route One will be running in his 10th race on Saturday and has won twice. I don't think Rosario will be completing his quest this year.

PP 6- Perform (15-1): Feargal Lynch

A journeyman jockey in the truest sense, Feargal Lynch started racing in his Northern Ireland homeland and became a champion apprentice rider in England. He made the permanent move to the United States after a few visits. He's been successful in the Maryland circuit and is also the winning jockey in a few prestigious graded stakes races such as the Woodbine Mile (G1) and the Ruffian Stakes (G2). He'll be making his Preakness debut after Perform gave an outstanding effort in his upset victory at the Federico Tesio Stakes. One of the three horses sired by Good Magic to run Saturday.

PP 7- Blazing Sevens (6-1): Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Simply put, Irad Ortiz, Jr is the best jockey in America, statistically speaking. He's earned over $13.3 million, winning a striking 26% of the 636 races he's entered, and is ITM for 59% as well. With all of these accolades, he still has yet to taste victory in either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness (he has won the Belmont twice). He'll be mounted on Blazing Sevens, who was eligible to run in the Derby but was held back by trainer Chad Brown to focus on the Preakness. I think Ortiz, Jr. has an outstanding chance of breaking through the Preakness barrier.

PP 8- First Mission (5-2): Luis Saez

If Ortiz, Jr. is the best jockey, then Luis is a solid choice for the second. He's second in wins (115) and 2023 earnings ($9,569,625). He's ridden in three Preakness races before, riding Bravazo to a second-place finish in 2018. First Mission is an intriguing "new shooter," which is a horse that didn't run in the Derby. He won his last time out in the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3). If he runs a good race, he could give Saez the best 31st birthday gift he could ask for, his first Preakness win.

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Pick:	DRAW (+230)
Start:	May 3, 2025 @ 12:30 AM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Comp Soccer pick from Doc’s Sports for Saturday: Spanish LaLiga Take Las Palmas/Valencia DRAW (+230) (12:30 p.m. EST, Saturday May 3) Valencia are the stronger side but they haven’t had the winning touch lately. They are coming off consecutive draws, and we think this one has a great chance to end up at a stalemate, and this is a great price for the draw. As of this writing, the under on total goals is juiced at -130 at 2.5, so a low scoring match is expected and we agree. So we have a couple chances at 0-0 or 1-1 for the under if it is indeed a low scoring match. Las Palmas has a single goal in their last two matches, and Valencia have scored one goal in three straight matches. We also like to target the draw in a likely low scoring match when the stronger team is the road side, and that is the case here on Saturday. Valencia have the second highest draw rate in LaLiga, as more than a third of their matches have ended tied. Again, nice value here and we think this one has a great chance to cash at a hefty price. Read More Read Less

2023 Preakness Stakes Jockeys: Handicapping and Expert Analysis

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