2021 Super Bowl Betting Tips and Advice
In a year where some expected the NFL to be cancelled and postponed, we have two teams playing for the Super Bowl. The Kansas City Chiefs will look to repeat from Super Bowl 54, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to prove that any team can buy a championship with the addition of Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Leonard Fournette, along with many other additions.
Most outlets will tell you that you can never bet against Tom Brady, and that’s kind of true. The man has made it to the Super Bowl now 10 of his 21 seasons. He’s played in nearly half of the Super Bowl’s in the last 20 years and has won six of nine so far.
On the other hand, how can you bet against the team that already won it last year?
People rarely worry about prop bets until the postseason. When the playoffs hit, bettors want to root for more than just a team winning or a total going over or under.
Super Bowl Prop Bets
Final Play of the Game to be a Quarterback Kneel: Yes -200
You know what they say. Defense wins championships. If that’s the case, even in a tight game, it’ll be the defense getting the final stop against an offense to then give the quarterback a chance to kneel for a victory.
I really like the chances of this game finishing with a kneel and think even at -200, there’s value on this.
Total players with a pass attempt in game: Over 2.5 +140
Last year this was set at +115. The reality is, we just saw Mahomes get concussed and taken out of a playoff game already this season. On top of that, the Chiefs will pull some trickery with end arounds and other interesting formations and schemes. There's a serious chance that another Chiefs player throws a ball in this game whether it be backup quarterback Chad Henne or a wide receiver/running back on a little trick play. The Chiefs have so much speed and have some many different ways that they can use those receivers.
Seeing the price at these odds compared to last year really makes me want to jump on it. I’m not rooting for a Mahomes injury. I’m rooting for a trick play. But Mahomes is not 100 percent healthy with a bad toe and other potential problems.
Chiefs Favorable Trends
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
Chiefs are 11-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games following a straight up win.
Buccaneers Favorable Trends
Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
You’re going to see a lot of Super Bowl betting trends with people looking to help you win bets. There are many trends that you shouldn’t bother looking at that have no impact on the actual bets.
Trends like the AFC being 12-6 straight up in the Super Bowl or how NFC teams dominate, specifically in Tampa, covering the last three games that have been played in Tampa.
Those types of trends are fun, but we’re talking about two completely different teams. One team winning a game one year doesn’t mean another team is going to win it the next year because they’re in the same conference or division. Do not use those trends to help you decide on the winner.
Of course, you might still win your wager off these trends, but there’s no concrete evidence that a team will win based off of those trends.
Trends on how many points have been scored in the Super Bowl or the spread in other super bowls also don’t matter. Some of those games included higher powered offenses, while some had dominant defenses.
Look at the game itself and play out scenarios on what will happen in this very game. Don’t look at other games between other teams in other seasons.
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