2021 Super Bowl Teaser Bets: Picks and Predictions
We are less than one week away from Super Bowl LV, and I'm sure by now you've heard about the matchup. Representing the AFC are the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, who will be making their second Super Bowl appearance in as many years. Their opponent will be the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are back in the Super Bowl for the first time since 2002. It should also be noted that the Bucs are the first team in NFL history to play in a Super Bowl on their home turf as the game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida.
There are plenty of storylines to cover heading into this matchup, but the one I am going to touch on is the best teaser option for the game itself. Before I get there, I must stress one thing, and that's money management.
The Super Bowl is just one game of football over the course of the season, and it should be treated and handicapped as just another game on the board. If you have an angle about a certain player prop you like and are convinced it's a great spot to bet on, then lay down the wager. If you believe one team is more likely to cover the spread than the other, get your action in. If you like a play on the total, be my guest and play it. However, if you think heads is going to win the toss and are willing to lay -120 on a 50/50 proposition, please reconsider. There are so many betting options and angles to consider when betting on the Super Bowl, but the one I tend to gravitate towards with the utmost confidence is the teaser.
For those of you who are new to this website, we at Doc's only recommend playing a teaser when the numbers make sense. The only teaser we recommend playing is a six-point teaser where you are pushing the spread through the key numbers of three and seven. For example, you would use a six-point teaser on a -7.5 to -8.5 favorite and bring them down to a -2.5 or -1.5 favorite, thus now laying less than a field goal. The flip side of the coin is taking a +1.5 to +2.5 underdog and teasing them up to +7.5 or +8.5 passing through the key number of seven. Here are full details on how to play them.
As of writing this, the Kansas City Chiefs are three-point favorites with the total set at 56.5. There are four teaser options you can make with any game. However, based on the line, we only recommend two of them.
Doc's Six-Point Teaser Recommendation Number 1
Tampa Bay +9 and "over" 50.5
Based on where the point spread currently sits, this is the ideal teaser that we recommend because you are teasing the point spread through the key number of seven and are getting one of the best teams in the league as more than a touchdown underdog. The Bucs have been firing on all cylinders over the last two months of the season. Their offense is clicking as they average nearly 30 points per game, and their defense is coming off two excellent performances where they bogged down Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. If you believe the Bucs can win this game but don't want to take them on the ML as a +140 underdog, you can grab as many points as possible and enjoy a comfortable wager. As for the "over" in this teaser, you have to believe Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to score some points. Therefore, with both teams averaging 28+ points per game, this game should fly over the total.
Doc's Six-Point Teaser Recommendation Number 2
Tampa Bay +9 and "under" 62.5
As per the first part of this teaser, Tampa Bay +9.5, the same concept applies to the above option. Grabbing the Bucs as more than a touchdown favorite not only covers you if the Bucs win the game outright, but it covers you if the game comes down to the last possession or possibly overtime. The "under" portion is going to rely on both defenses stepping up and playing above their head to slow down the opposition. The Bucs have the No. 1 rushing defense and ninth-best defense in total yards allowed. As I mentioned, they just bogged down two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Therefore, if you believe the Bucs will stop the run as efficiently as they’ve been doing, they may be able to drop into coverage and limit Mahomes effectiveness through the air.
Alternative Teaser Options:
Kansas City +3 and "over" 50.5
One of the first rules of teaser betting is never teasing a team through zero. Never make a favorite an underdog unless you are absolutely certain that they will win the game outright. This is the best example of that. Teasing the Chiefs through zero is a terrible idea given the fact that this game can't end in a tie, thus zero is not a viable option. This means that you'd be paying for six points but only receiving five. Bad bankroll management. However, if you insist on playing this version of the teaser, you are hoping that both offenses show up and give the world what they want to see -- a Mahomes vs Brady shootout. We know how efficient and explosive both offenses can be at any given time. Therefore, if you’re banking on fireworks, this may be the best teaser for you given the fact that the Chiefs are never out of any game with their quick score offense, and 50.5 would be relatively low for two teams averaging more than 30 points per game.
Kansas City +3 and "under" 62.5
If you think the Chiefs are going to win the game or the game is going to be as close as the point spread indicates, this version of the teaser relies on the defenses stepping up in a big way and slowing down the opponent. The Bucs defense is the better of the two defensive units, but the Chiefs defense has talent and turnover abilities at every position. Brady has been known to cave a bit under pressure. Therefore, if the Chiefs can get to Brady, it could make for a very long night for the 43-year-old. Sixty-three points is a ton of points, especially in a Super Bowl where every play matters and teams sell out defensively.
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