2022 World Cup Group D Betting Odds and Expert Predictions
Group D odds to win group:
The World Cup is just days away, and the group stage betting lines are now open. There are numerous ways to attack the markets, and plenty of money can be made during the group stage. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the competitors.
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Australia has qualified for their 5th straight World Cup and are hoping they can advance past the group stage for the first time since 2006. In the last 2 World Cups, Australia has failed to win any group stage games and have had no favors done for them in Group D. There are some familiar names on the Aussie squad, with Matt Ryan between the sticks and Aaron Mooy commanding the midfield. While the strength of the Australian squad is low, they have proven they can beat the lower tier teams in the past. Considering they qualified through the AFC path, they have experience playing weaker squads. In a group with Tunisia, a win against the African minnow is a must to maintain any hopes of advancing. If they can steal a point against Denmark or France, stranger things have happened than Australia moving on.
Denmark is heading to their 6th World Cup appearance and will be looking to best its Round of 16 knockout in 2018. At Euro 2020, Denmark made waves by reaching the semifinals before bowing out. This squad has proven they can compete with the best teams in the world, and their ‘team first’ mentality has been effective in big tournaments. The defensive talent in the Danish squad is undeniable, but the goal threat going forwards remains a real concern. Yussuf Poulsen and Martin Braithwaite will be tasked with leading the line, with midfield support coming from Christian Eriksen and Pierre-Emile Hojberg. Everyone knows the phrase ‘offense wins games, defense wins championships’, and it couldn’t apply more for the Danish squad. They may struggle to find wins in the group stage, but I expect their defensive record to remain intact regularly.
The defending World Cup Champions were gifted a dream World Cup group. Minnows Australia and Tunisia should allow France to break the infamous World Cup curse. The last 3 defending World Cup champions have all bowed out in the group stage, and France look poised to buck that trend. Heading to Qatar is a very deep French squad that should be full of confidence that they have what it takes to become the first repeat champions since 1962. In attack, Kylian Mbappe will be leading the line, with Ballon D'or winner Karim Benzema alongside him. The defense for France remains strong, but the midfield has taken some serious injury hits heading into the tournament. Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante will both miss the entire tournament, leaving the French midfield in shambles. Real Madrid youngsters Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni will be thrust into the spotlight and will attempt to perform in a team full of World Cup winners. The competition may not be the best, but France will still want to get off on the right foot heading into the knockout rounds.
Tunisia will be participating at their 6th World Cup and will be hoping to build on their group stage departure in 2018. Their win against Panama in 2018 was their first victory since 1978, and the Tunisian squad will attempt to build on that momentum in Qatar. The experience within the squad could give them a chance to qualify. The squad is short on household names but has proven they can compete at the highest level. There was intense criticism of the new CAF qualifying path, but Tunisia made the most of their opportunities and will be heading to Qatar with optimism. Their second group stage game against Australia will be critical if they are to have a chance to qualify.
Betting on Group D will be a tricky task. France has established themselves as the frontrunner, and Denmark is comfortably the second-best team. This leaves Australia and Tunisia fighting for a meaningless third place. At the top of the group, France comes in as -250 to win the group, and Denmark is +275. The value on Denmark is undeniable. And while I don’t believe in the ‘World Cup Curse’, I do feel France has a very small margin for error. If Denmark can hold France off the scoresheet, they could be looking at a first-place finish.
For the second bet, I’m doubling down on Denmark and betting them to qualify at -300. I expect Denmark to keep a clean sheet against Australia and Tunisia, allowing them to comfortably qualify. While -300 is a heavily juiced price, I feel it represents a great parlay piece with another group prop.
Finally, at the bottom of the table I expect Australia to prevail and send Tunisia home as the bottom team at -120 odds. Australia has proven they can consistently beat inferior teams, and I think they have a slight edge over Tunisia.
Group D Prediction:
Denmark 7 Points, and 0 Goals Against
France 7 Points
Australia 3 Points
Tunisia 0 Points
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