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Last Week's Expert College Football Picks From Our Handicappers.
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Doc's Sports
8 Unit Play. Take #172 Southern Cal Trojans -2.5 over Michigan Wolverines (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 11 NBC) COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR An unranked team that is favored over a ranked team is always a strong indicator when handicapping. This is another litmus test for Lincoln Riley, as he has not shown he can win games against physical teams. If USC can stop the run in this game, I feel they can win this game by double digits. I am not sold on Sherrone Moore as a big-time coach and feel he embarrassed himself last week against Wisconsin late in that game. USC is having a good season thus far, but their schedule is starting to get much tougher starting this Saturday. USC has been able to rush the passer this year, and they get to face a young quarterback on the road. Michigan did not perform well against Oklahoma in this type of situation, and it all comes down to if they can run the football. USC is a much better team at home, and they will be the best passing attack Michigan has seen this season. Lay the points with the small home favorite on Saturday.2 Unit Play. Take #174 Arizona Wildcats +105 money line over BYU Cougars (8p.m., Saturday, October 11 ESPN2) BYU has not been tested and thus their 5-0 record does not mean much. Arizona is 4-1 on the year and has already beaten a similar team to BYU in Kansas State this season at Arizona Stadium. BYU has a strong defense, but West Virginia was able to put 24 points on them in their last game. The Wildcats are the better passing attack in this game and playing at home in the desert at night is always a big advantage. Arizona has revenge after losing to BYU last year by 22 points.
3 Unit Play. Take #194 Kansas State Wildcats +100 money line over TCU Horned Frogs (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 11 FOX) I am not as down on Kansas State as many of their fans and some member of the media are. They have been competitive in every game this season and have a dual threat quarterback. TCU had a miraculous cover last week against Colorado but they are not the same team on the road. Beating North Carolina to open the season is not the flex it appeared to be at the time. The Wildcats have won 5 of the last 6 games against the Frogs. TCU cannot run the football well and that will allow K-State to come out on top.
2 Unit Play. Take #212 Auburn Tigers +3.5 over Georgia Bulldogs (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 11 ABC) Georgia is not the same Georgia as in year’s past. The spread on this game is low and I feel this can be a big moment for the Hugh Freeze tenure. Georgia is 1-6 against teams coming off a bye. The Dawgs are also 1-5 when they are a road favorite of a touchdown or less. Tennessee had Georgia beat for most of that game and Auburn will follow a similar blueprint but be able to close the deal. Night game at Jordan-Hare will be the difference.
Robert Ferringo
FRIDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTION1-Unit Play. Take #115 South Florida (+1) over North Texas (7:30 p.m., Friday, Oct. 10)
These two teams have gotten off to great starts. But you can’t really compare their schedules. South Florida has taken on real teams like Boise State, Florida and Miami. North Texas has played…Washington State. North Texas hasn’t been great in the role of home favorite and I need to see them win big games like this before I expect them to. I think this USF team is legit and I think they have the goods to grind out a win in what I expect to be a close game.
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #124 Temple (+9.5) over Navy (4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
This is a letdown spot for what I think is an overrated Navy team. Navy is 5-0 and they are coming off a rivalry win over Air Force last weekend. They have actually won eight straight dating back to last year and I don’t think they are taking this Temple team seriously at all. Temple is 5-1 ATS in its last six games and new head coach K.C. Keeler has his guys buying into his system. Especially after a nice upset win over UT-San Antonio last week. The only two teams Temple has lost to this season are Oklahoma and Georgia Tech – two playoff hopefuls. I think the upstart Owls will be game here.
1-Unit Play. Take #133 Old Dominion (-14.5) over Marshall (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
1-Unit Play. Take #148 Michigan State (-8.5) over UCLA (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 11)
I’m playing the letdown here. UCLA had a monster upset last week, taking out Penn State at home. They had to max out in that game and now the 1-4 Bruins have to hit the road to completely unfamiliar territory. The Bruins have lost to teams like UNLV, New Mexico and Northwestern so they are more than capable of falling here. Michigan State is coming off back-to-back respectable road losses at Nebraska and USC. I think some home cooking against a team primed for a letdown is what they need.
1-Unit Play. Take #161 Alabama (-3) over Missouri (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 11)
If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. I had Alabama last week and benefitted from that lucky late score for the front-door cover. That is now four straight ATS wins, though, and there is no doubt that they have gotten past that Week 1 loss to Florida State. Alabama has already taken on FSU, Wisconsin, Georgia and Vanderbilt. Missouri’s best win came against either Kansas or South Carolina. Bottom line: if Alabama can win at Georgia and snap UGA’s 33-game home winning streak then the Crimson Tide are capable of taking out Missouri and their 15-game home winning streak. Alabama is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in this series with the average win by 28.6 points per game. Solid value here.
3-Unit Play. Take #168 Utah (-5.5) over Arizona State (10 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
This is a really good, experienced Arizona State team. I think they are in some trouble here, though. I think that Utah is right there with Texas Tech as the best teams in the Big 12. Utah is one of the toughest places in the country for visitors to play and I do not see the Utes dropping back-to-back home games. Utah has had two weeks to prepare for this game. And if you kick out the last half of that bizarre fourth quarter against the Red Raiders then the Utah defense is allowing just 10.4 points per game. Arizona State beat a skeleton Utah team last October. In the four meetings prior to that (since 2019), Utah had beaten the Sun Devils by 52, 21, 14 and 18 points. I see another double-digit win here.
5-Unit Play. Take #172 USC (-2.5) over Michigan (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
This just feels like a make-or-break spot for Lincoln Riley and the Trojans. I think that they are going to be up to the task. It is a lot to ask for Big Ten teams to go rolling out to the Rose Bowl or to the West Coast in general and to play their best games. USC is 13-7 ATS as a home favorite and if they are going to play one of their best games of the season it will be in front of their home faithful. The Trojans have had two weeks to stew about that last-second loss at Illinois. That was a tough situational spot for them (playing in Champagne at 9 a.m. PST) and they should’ve won that game. If USC was 5-0 then this line would be closer to 6.5. This Trojans front seven is vastly improved, currently No. 30 in the country against the run. They should be better in that area this year after allowing 290 yards on the ground in a last-second loss in Ann Arbor last year. USC allowed the game-winning touchdown with 37 second left last year and I think that they are going to want revenge. This USC team has had a bunch of hard-luck losses the last two seasons and are better than their record over that span. I think they get the breaks their way this time and get a marquee win for Riley over Top 20 opposition.
2-Unit Play. Take #174 Arizona (+1.5) over BYU (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
This number is begging the public to take BYU. And they are obliging. The Cougars are No. 18 in the country and are undefeated. They have been a wagon against overmatched competition over the last two years. The Cougars are taking a freshman quarterback on the road, though, against a feisty Arizona defense. BYU’s best win at this point came at mediocre Colorado in a game they were down 14-0. Arizona will be revenge-minded after a 22-point blowout loss on the road last year in a game where they were only outgained by nine years. I think BYU takes its first loss here.
3-Unit Play. Take #177 Arkansas (+12.5) over Tennessee (4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
I love Bobby Petrino in this role. He was a solid underdog wager in his last stint with the Razorbacks and I think he is going to have his guys ready to play. Arkansas is not a bad team by any stretch. They should’ve won at Memphis and nearly pulled an upset at Ole Miss. If they can hang around with the Rebels on the road (lost by 6) then I think they can throw a scare into a Tennessee team that has been shaky. The Vols are very good. But they are slightly overvalued. They should’ve lost to Mississippi State and only beat a bad Syracuse team by 19. They gave up 44 points to Georgia and 34 to Miss State and this Vols defense has some issues. I think that Arkansas is going to get a little short-term bump from the coaching change. Petrino is a guy that’s had success in the past and will have his team ready to fight. Tennessee will win this game but this is a big backdoor for the Razorbacks to sneak through. I can see 38-30 for the home team.
1-Unit Play. Take #180 Texas A&M (-7.5) over Florida (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
There is a reason that Billy Napier’s job was on the line last week against Texas: he’s not a very good coach! Everyone is quick to forgive Florida after their upset against overrated Texas last week. Now the Gators are in a letdown spot, though, and they have not been good on the road (4-15 SU). This A&M team has been taking people apart and I think that they are going to be amped up in College Station.
1-Unit Play. Take #185 Stanford (+19) over SMU (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 11)
I think that Frank Reich is an excellent football coach. The cupboard is pretty bare, talent-wise, at Stanford. But Reich is getting the most out of it. The Cardinal is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games but they have won two of three games overall, beating San Jose State and Boston College. Losses to Virginia and BYU – two Top 20 teams – don’t look too badly either. SMU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games 2-8 ATS in their last 10. They only beat Missouri State by 18 points and Syracuse by 13. The Mustangs also have a rematch of the ACC championship game the following week at Clemson. So how focused are they going to be here against an opponent they beat 40-10 last year? SMU should win easily but I don’t know that they are going to turn this one into a blowout.
1-Unit Play. Take #201 Oklahoma (+1) over Texas (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
If John Mateer does play, this line is going to spike OU’s way, so we are getting nice value here on the underdog price. I think that at full strength the Sooners are clearly better than this Texas team. They will want revenge for getting blown out last year – kicked when they were down with massive offensive line and receiver injuries – and the Sooners are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in this series. OU has already beaten better teams than Texas (Auburn, Michigan) and faced better quarterbacks. This one will be a grinder but I like the Sooners to escape with a win.
1-Unit Play. Take #205 Utah State (-1.5) over Hawaii (11:59 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
The Aggies are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games. They have already faced excellent offenses in Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, so nothing that Hawaii throws at them will rattle the Aggies. Hawaii already has four wins. They are just two off from their goal of getting back to a bowl game. This team has beaten some real weak sisters, though, and have to prove that they can step up and beat one of the better teams in the Mountain West. Utah State hasn’t lost to Hawaii since 2010 and arguably a weaker Aggies team won this matchup 55-10 last year. USU is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to The Islands. This will be a fight. But a fight I like Utah State to win.
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #133 Old Dominion (-7.5) over Marshall (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #138 Penn State (-15) over Northwestern (3:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #139 Clemson (-7) over Boston College (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #142 Florida State (-3) over Pittsburgh (Noon)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #148 Michigan State (-1.5) over UCLA (Noon) AND Take #177 Arkansas (+19.5) over Tennessee (4 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #180 Texas A&M (-0.5) over Florida (7 p.m.) AND Take #201 Oklahoma (+8) over Texas (3:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #194 Kansas State (+8.5) over TCU (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #189 Houston (-7.5) over Oklahoma State (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 11)
Craig Trapp
ADDED PICK for WEDNESDAY 10/15 will be graded on 10/9 football releases:3-Unit Play. Take #307 Delaware (-3) Over Jacksonville State (7 p.m., Wednesday, October 15)
Missed FG at buzzer cost Delaware chance at win last game but that loss made this line lower by 1/2 to full point. Off the key number of 3 we really think Delaware gets it done tonight. JSU has been better than we anticipated but still have depth issues and can't keep up with much better DEL. Take Delaware to win and cover the spread.
Craig
4-Unit Play. Take #204 UNLV (-6.5) Over Air Force (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 11)
This Air Force defense is one of the worst in NCAAF and is facing a UNLV offense that is one of the best. Just can’t see Air Force finding a way to slow down UNLV. Add in it’s a big hangover sport for AF after losing to rival Navy last week. Take UNLV to win and cover the spread this week.
3-Unit Play. Take #165 Iowa State (-2.5) Over Colorado (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 11)
The Cyclones come off quality loss at very good Cincinnati team, now Iowa State gets much easier team facing banged up Colorado team. Colorado two wins are to Delaware and Wyoming, enough said. Cyclones Becht at QB has big edge over Colorado and think that is key in nice road win. Take Iowa State to win and over this spread.
2-Unit Play. Take #204 Michigan (+2.5) Over USC (7:30 p.m., Saturday, October 11)
The physical style of Michigan is big problem for USC. Trojans haven’t performed well against the physical teams in Big Ten. Wolverines Freshman QB Underwood will have big game and get us the win. Take Michigan plus the points to cover the spread.
7-Unit Play. Take #207 San Jose State (-2) Over Wyoming (7 p.m., Saturday, October 11)
This San Jose State unit is much better than record suggests and think they show it this week on the road. Wyoming has nice defense but the offense is limited and that costs them again this week. Take SJSU to win and cover the spread on the road.
Craig
Scott Rickenbach
3-Unit Play. Take #120 Washington (-10.5) vs Rutgers (9:00 p.m., Friday, Oct. 10)Rutgers has the benefit of a bye week and they can be a scrappy dog for sure. However, the Huskies are the stronger overall team and they have revenge from losing at Rutgers last season. Also, Washington will build momentum off last week's come from behind win at Maryland. Now they want to make up for their most recent home game as that was a loss to Ohio State. The Huskies have had some big games on offense already this season and I just don't see Rutgers as being able to keep up. The Huskies get their revenge. 3* WASHINGTON -10.5
3-Unit Play. Take #201 Oklahoma (+1.5) vs Texas (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
Revenge from last year's 34-3 thrashing. This is a huge rivalry of course and the Sooners have not forgotten last season. Oklahoma was really banged up for that game and missing a ton of players. We get a value line here likely because Mateer is questionable for the Sooners. If he can't go Hawkins will get the start and he does have more experience now plus he did start against Texas last season. Longhorns off the grueling loss to a tough Gators team at Florida last week. Conversely, the Sooners are off an easy win last week over Kent State so they were able to rest up for this game. The injury situation for Mateer makes it a little tougher yet I like the Sooners here even if he does not go. Texas QB Manning has really struggled against quality teams this season and the OU defense has been playing very well this season. The Horns defense was thrashed by the Gators last week. All in all, great spot for the Sooners to get revenge here and the Longhorns disappointing campaign continues with loss #3 already on the season! 3* OKLAHOMA +1.5
4-Unit Play. Take #165 Iowa State (-2.5) @ Colorado (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
Iowa State has been great when off a loss under coach Matt Campbell. Their perfect start to the season ended with a defeat last week and now the Cyclones (67% ATS L45 times off a loss) will respond here. Colorado has been a little better in recent games but this Buffaloes team is still a mess as the Deion Sanders experiment continues to look like it will play out as a head coaching flop. Campbell, on the other hand, has been at Iowa State for almost a decade now and this program continues to show improvement. Iowa State is now 16-4 the last 2 seasons overall and also is on a fantastic 15-6 run in Conference games the last 3 seasons. Colorado might hang around in this one for awhile but the Cyclones pull away in the 2nd half and should have no trouble covering this short number. Statistically Iowa State is the much better team in this match-up and I love having good teams off a loss. 4* Iowa State -2.5
7-Unit Play. Take #168 Utah (-5.5) vs Arizona State (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
Another revenge game here as the Utes lost at ASU last season. For Utah this is not only a revenge game but they are continuing their revenge season. Last year was so disappointing that it played a key factor in coach Whittingham coming back as he did not want to go out like that! So he has been on a mission to get the Utes back to the level they used to be after last year's disappointing result. That said, with just one exception (vs Texas Tech) his mission has been successful so far. The Utes did respond off the bad loss to the Red Raiders and this team continues to be strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Arizona State is a solid 4-1 this season but their last two wins have been very tight. Their luck runs out here as they are on the road and playing right into the teeth of revenge here. The Utes make up for the loss at Arizona State last season by continuing their "revenge tour" campaign this season with another win here. The Sun Devils are 2-0 in conference while the Utes are 1-1. This game is of extra importance to Utah as a result. The Utes have been great on defense as they are holding foes over 100 yards below their season average. They do it again here and the Sun Devils won't be able to score enough on the road to be able to keep up. Utah's offense has been solid with Dampier at QB and more of the same here. Keep in mind Utes' most recent home game was that embarrassing loss to Texas Tech. They will be ready to make up for that here. The Sun Devils could easily be 0-2 on the road this season. They already lost at Mississippi State and then barely got by Baylor on the road. The home team in a great situational spot gets the job done here and the Utes 4 wins all by 25 or more this season and they should win this by double digits the way I see this one playing out. 7* Utah -5.5
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
7-Unit Play. #148. Take Michigan State -7.5 over UCLA (Saturday @ 12pm est)Happy for UCLA on their big win but Michigan State is going to be ticked off coming in. Remember, you get Michigan State here coming off back to back losses to good teams in Nebraska and USC and Nebraska needed a 17-6 fourth quarter to win their game. We like Michigan State here on a big bounce-back and to avoid losing 3 straight and UCLA comes into this game on a massive high but they face a very strong defensive team and there is no way they overlook them here.
4-Unit Play. #144. Take Georgia Tech -14.5 over Virginia Tech (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)
Georgia Tech played like absolute dog poop last week against Wake Forest and they know it. This was a contest where they did not come focused and they paid nearly a heavy price as they were down 3-17 and had to come all the way back and win in OT. They have failed to cover back to back weeks now. Va Tech is off a loss to Wake and they could be focused coming in, but I got to tell you, I can't imagine Ga Tech overlooking this game as they lost to this team 6-21 last year and they should be well focused.
4-Unit Play. #203. Take Over 64 Air Force vs. UNLV (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)
We think Air Force will be a fantastic underdog and push the tempo here as this team put up 30+ on Navy and can score with ease, they just can't play defense and with UNLV being undefeated, 5-0 and needing to put up points to show the college football committee they deserve to be ranked and the fact their defense could be sleeping at the wheel with Boise State on deck, we like the Over here.
4-Unit Play. #203. Take Arkansas +12.5 over Tennessee (Saturday @ 4:15pm est)
Big coaching changes here for Arkansas, they went absolutely whole sale and we love Arkansas here with Petrino who is a fantastic offensvive minded coach and we think he does a great job of coaching them up here and there is a legit chance that he coaches these guys up to give Tennessee all they can handle. Tennesse gave up 40+ to Georgia and Petrino is an unbelievable offensive minded coach and he's had time to prepare with an extra week, we like Arkansas to hang tough here.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK #73 Unit Play. Take #175 Troy +9 over Texas St (8:00p.m., Saturday October 11 ESPN+)
The Troy Trojans come into this road game against Texas St winning back-to-back games. I know Texas St is perfect at home, but their last home game was against Nicholls St and the Trojans are not even close to the Colonels. If the Bobcats defense can slow down the Trojans QB Tucker Kilcrease it wouldn’t shock me to see this game go down to the wire.Troy is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games and the Trojans are 20-7 ATS in Conference play.
5 Unit Play. Take #211 Georgia -3.5 over Auburn (7:30p.m., Saturday October 11 ABC)
The Georgia Bulldogs had no issue forgetting about the tough Alabama home loss last week as they took care of Kentucky at home winning 35-14. I know the Bulldogs have had trouble covering games this year but I see them dominating this game from start to finish. Auburn is 2-0 at home this year but those wins were against South Alabama and Ball St. Last two games the Auburn Tigers had trouble scoring only scoring 27 points and if they had trouble scoring against Texas A&M what do you think the Bulldogs defense is going to do. I know Auburn is coming off a bye week but don’t forget Hugh Freeze is in the hot seat and the seat will only get hotter after Georgia wins this game by a touchdown. Georgia is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings against Auburn
Tony George
College FootballFriday 10/10/25
3 Units
#115 / #116 South Florida / North Texas (UNDER 66.5) *7:30 EST
The Bulls of South Florida are no joke and this is a huge game for the AAC with many teams still unbeaten including North Texas. The deal is South Florida has wins over Florida and Boise State, and are battle tested. Their only loss is to Miami, and I consider Miami the best team in CFB so far. The Bulls held Boise St to 7 points and Florida to 16 points, something Texas could not do last week! North Texas has played no one of any merit to date but still have been impressive. That being said the North Texas defense is no joke and I think it will limit So. Florida on offense. This has long lasting conference title implications and I think both teams can get in the mid to high 20’s here but it will be a cat and mouse game and South Florida can be very inconsistent on offense. Play the Under, everyone will be thinking Over here.
Saturday 10/11/25
2 Units
#183 / #184 Ohio State / Illinois (UNDER 49.5) *12 Noon EST
Ohio States defense is no joke and no team has scored double digits on them. They average 5 ppg allowed. Illinois will struggle to move the ball and bear in mind Illinois managed just 10 on the road at Indiana. Ohio St will run the ball here with success and I think Illinois will play some decent defense at home in a big game. Just some simple math here.
3 Units
#188 Maryland (+6.5) over Nebraska *3:30 EST
Nebraska as a road fav 4-19 ATS. Maryland had Washington, a very good team, on the ropes and blew a 20-3 lead and allowed 3 TD’s in the fourth quarter to lose. They have had a bye week to think about it. I do not trust Nebraska laying over 3 points on the road in any conference game. They had a close non cover against Michigan State last week in Lincoln, but Maryland has played a surprisingly good brand of football this year and pose some issues for Nebraska. The only good team Nebraska played was Michigan at home and lost. I can see a Husker win in a tight one, but not a cover and Nebraska seems to always falter late in games even under Ruhle as coach.
3 Units
#165 Iowa State (-2.5) over Colorado *3:30 EST
Colorado is not a good team. Iowa State is a good team, despite some injuries. ISU has 2 cornerbacks out but I am not sure the Buffs can exploit it. Deon Sanders had surgery on his blood clots this week and is expected to coach the game. A mild distraction, but on paper I have ISU -6.5. I know the game is in Boulder here but a 2-win Colorado team whose wins were against Delaware and Wyoming is hardly a buy sign on a home dog, especially with a bad defense. ISU has a great QB, better coach as well. Off a tough loss to Cincy last week, I like ISU in rebound mode on a short number, as I release it under the key number of 3 as of Thursday.
7 Units
#189 Houston (-14.5) over Oklahoma State *12 Noon EST
In my opinion Okie State is one of the worst teams in the Power 4 conferences. They have fired an OSU legend in Mike Gundy, they have had players bolt for the transfer portal, especially on defense. Many other coaches are out. They cannot stop grandma pushing a shopping cart on defense. Houston off a loss to Texas Tech, but bear in mind I have Texas Tech #3 in the country on power ratings. Houston is a solid team. Houston’s defense will smother OSU in this game in Stillwater. Home field here carries no value. The Cowboys managed 7 first downs and 158 yards against Arizona last week in a blowout loss and the Cougar defense is better. I honestly think Houston can name the score and off a loss they just might do so. The Houston QB is out of concussion protocol and will play. Okie State is on a 2-12 ATS run and I do not see them all of a sudden making a stand here against a ticked off team whose coach is also great after a loss both SU and ATS. Lay it.
Vernon Croy
NO CFB PLAYS THIS WEEKScott Spreitzer
3-Unit Play: Take 116 Under 66.5 South Florida-North Texas (7:30 p.m., Friday, October 10)I’m playing the Under in this one. The total was set rather high and while it has come down a little bit it hasn’t reached a point where we’re passing. While both have high scoring offenses it should be noted the best pass defense in the conference belongs to North Texas, holding opponents under 150 passing yards per game and South Florida is strong against the run. In fact, the Bulls held Florida & Boise State to a combined 23 points. UNT had last week off to prepare and I do believe they’ll slow the USF offense which can get a little sluggish at times. I’m playing the Under on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: Take 148 Michigan St. -7.5 over UCLA (12 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
Obviously UCLA benefited from the coaching change – after all, they went from having a HC who couldn’t even speak at a Big-10 press conference (not kidding) to coaches with a clue and a plan. Having said that, Penn State was as unprepared and as flat as it gets when they arrived in Pasadena and that’s on James Franklin and his staff. They woke up (sort of) at the half and out-scored UCLA 30-15 in the second half but it was too late. UCLA partied like they just won a Rose Bowl. But MSU scored a big hire when they lured Jonathan Smith away from Oregon State. His teams are always well prepared and ready to go. The Spartans lost last week in Lincoln but completely shut down a very good Nebraska passing game. If not for a blocked punt for a TD, MSU might have won that game. Before facing a great Husker pass defense, Sparty QB Aidan Chiles had 9 TD passes and just 1 pick. I’m betting he takes care of business in this one. I’m laying the points with Michigan State. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
6-Unit Play: Take 172 USC -2.5 over Michigan (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)
Michigan freshman QB Bryce Underwood struggled when the Wolverines ventured out on the road. Underwood was a complete mess at Oklahoma, although he can be forgiven because it was his first road start and was up against defensive guru Brent Venables. U-M won in Lincoln by running the football against a bad run defense but Underwood did not find much success through the air. The young QB completed 21 of 46, 46% of his passes for 247 yards on 5.4 yards per pass in two road tests. They’ve been too one-dimensional in step-up games and USC has the players on defense to keep track of Underwood when he uses his feet. USC’s offensive line is the best U-M will have faced to date. The Wolverines have a pass rush that got to Dominic Raiola seven times but still allowed 300 yards passing and a 73% completion rate. The Trojans have allowed just four sacks on the season and average 28 passes (and more dropbacks) per game. QB Jayden Maiava has completed 70% of his passes with 11 TD and 1 INT and RB Waymond Jordan has rushed for 537 yards on 7 yards per carry. The Trojans’ offense can run, pass, and protect the QB. USC is on an 11-2 SU / 10-3 ATS run at home against Big-10 opponents. I’m backing USC. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
3-Unit Play - (109) Southern Miss -155 (ML) over Georgia Southern (10/9 | 8:00PM EST) The market is all over Southern Miss here and we are in full agreement. They have covered in three of their last four and should have more than enough in the tank to take care of business vs. Georgia Southern who have an awful -1.6 ypp margin on the season. We should also note that Georgia Southern have played awful football for the most part in these 'competitive' games and the strength of schedule angle is getting too much credit as usual. Teams don't usually steam from underdog thru the key number of 3 for no good reason. There is still some value on the spread, but we prefer the ML in this spot.4-Unit Play - (116) North Texas PK -110 over South Florida (10/10 | 7:30PM EST) Undefeated home teams after game five of the season are covering at a 54% clip on the blind which gives them a natural edge off the bat. This improves to 57% when we have higher totals above 60. The market often over-adjusts to expected regressions and they usually come far later than expected. NT have the better statistics when it comes to ypp margin, and although USF have played the tougher strength of schedule; that can often wear on teams. Value on the Mean Green who continue to impress.
4-Unit Play - (117) Fresno State -6 -110 over Colorado State (10/10 | 9:00PM EST) Fresno State have now won five straight since their opening game. Their strength of schedule leaves a lot to be desired, but the metrics have been solid. The Rams are 1-4 and have had some very questionable performances. There are rumours surrounding the coaching staff facing a possible relocation. Hmm. Value on the Bulldogs at anything below a touchdown here.
4-Unit Play - (185) Stanford +18.5 -110 over SMU (10/11 | 12:00PM EST) SMU are 0-5 ATS and need to cover this one by three touchdowns? Don't get us wrong; Stanford suck but they have won two of their last three and are getting a generous number based on their awful road performances thus far. There isn't much else to add. We're buying the number.
3-Unit Play - (122) Kent State -135 (ML) over Massachusetts (10/11 | 2:30PM EST) Two awful teams. However, UMass are a complete train wreck with one of the worst offensive schemes we've seen in some time. This is a game Kent State should win as it's a huge step down in competition to what they have played in recent weeks.
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play. Take #158 Texas Tech (-14) over Kansas (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 11)Texas Tech has proven to be one of the best teams in the country as they just destroy the teams they play time in and time out. The Red Raiders have beaten every team they have played by at least 24 points. Yes, Kansas is a dangerous team due to their QB play and their offensive abilities, but they are nowhere near the level of this Red Raiders side. Kansas has failed to cover the line in seven of their last eight October road games when they are an underdog. Don’t sweat this one out due to the number, as Texas Tech is just that much better than the Jayhawks.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
CFB-Saturday October 11th 2025-
5 Unit Play Take #172 USC -2.5 over Michigan (7:30pm est):
This is an awesome situational spot for USC as they come into this game off of a loss and then had a bye last week so they've had two weeks to get healthy and prepare for this game. The Trojans were in a horrific spot before in last game as they not only had to deal with a very early start time, they also were going up against a veteran Illinois team that was totally embarrassed in their previous game. Now combine that with the fact USC also lost some key starters before that contest against Illinois to food poisoning including their best defensive player. With two weeks between games the Trojans should be getting a number of these key players back for this one. USC should also be extra motivated here not only because they lost last time out but also because they will be looking for revenge here against this Michigan team that they felt they should have beat last year.
Michigan is off a win last week versus Wisconsin but keep in mind they faced the Badgers 3rd string quarterback in that contest. The Wolverines will once again go with true freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood and though he's played better of late it's going to be extremely difficult for him to keep up with a very high powered USC offense in this one, an offense that might be the best in all of college football. The Big Ten added west coast teams to their league last year and since doing so teams that had to travel across two time zones (like Michigan here) have went just 12-21 against the spread overall.
Lay the points with USC in this game.
4 Unit Play Take #154 Bowling Green +11 over Toledo (12:00pm est):
Toledo has not been good in this spot going 4-9 against the spread the past four years as a conference road favorite and head coach Jason Candle is also just 10-17 versus the number when favored by double digits. The Rockets come in off their best performance of the season last time out winning 45-3 over Akron but keep in mind the Zips were without their starting quarterback Ben Finley in that one and there's a huge drop off between Finley and his backup.
I like to back 1st year head coaches in CFB off of a bye as I feel there's a lot of growth for a team and a coaching staff during that mid-season week off and Bowling Green will have that here in this one. The Falcons come in off a tough loss last game versus a solid Ohio team as BGSU blew numerous opportunities in that contest.
Take Bowling Green plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #200 Oregon State +3 over Wake Forest (3:30pm est):
You have to wonder just how focused Wake Forest will be for this one having to travel out west to play a winless non-conference opponent knowing that they will also be on their bye week after this game and returning to action going up against arguably their two toughest opponents this season in their next two games.
It's homecoming here for 0-6 Oregon State so they should be motivated for this contest. The Beavers had one of the most misleading final scores you will see all season last week in their 27-23 loss to Appalachian State. OSU gained more than 100+ yards on offense against APSU but were done in by a -3 in turnovers. Add that in with also missing a short field goal and having two drives stall out inside their opponents five yard line and you see can how the Beavers should have came out of that game a winner. This was the 3rd game this season that the Beavers very easily could have and probably should have won but instead were on the wrong side of some bad breaks. Keep in mind also the 0-6 record overall for OSU isn't as bad as it sounds when you take into account that they've played a schedule that's ranked 17th hardest in all of CFB this year.
Take Oregon State plus the points.
Griffin Murphy
7 Unit Play - Take #125 UCF (+11) Over Cincinnati (12:00p.m, Saturday, October 11th)So, Cincinnati is coming off a massive win over Iowa State last week in a 38-30 final. That was one of the most publicly speculated games on the board throughout all of college football last week. The speculation brings us tremendous value because if you watched that game, Cincinnati looked absolutely flawless across all cylinders. Now, UCF is coming into this game after an outright 27-20 home loss to Kansas. Kansas was laying 3.5 points and beat them by a touchdown. Kansas is way better than people think this year, and when we get to the end of the season, Kansas' name will be in discussion as having had a phenomenal season. I truly believe Kansas is a better team than Cincinnati, and we have some open variants here. First off, we are catching 11 points in this game, not 3.5. Next, Cincinnati has one weakness on the defensive side. That is in their secondary, which fails on the deep ball from time to time. UCF is going to be able to crack open a run game, as they are averaging 202 rushing yards per game. This is going to open the elusive pass game, and this is where we believe UCF sustains in this matchup. UCF has a very disciplined defense, and this team is very underrated this season. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is now under the radar with a 4-1 record and a massive publicly speculated victory over what once was a perfect 5-0 Iowa State team. The public is going to drill Cincinnati at home, and we are not buying it. Let's sell the hype and buy the fear with a 7-unit on UCF to get it done!
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #194 Kansas State (+1.5) Over TCU (3:30p.m, Saturday, October 11th)
Kansas State comes into this game with an ugly 2-4 record. We were on Kansas State + the points last week against Baylor on the road. Kansas State did lose that game outright, but they did in fact cover the spread. Kansas State is a very poised team when their offense is efficient with Avery Johnson leading the charge. We by no means look at Kansas State as a 2-4 team. This record could very well be 4-2 with a win over Iowa State in week one, which they choked in the second half, and last week's matchup was blown against a very potent Baylor team. TCU comes into this game 4-1, but they haven't played anybody we would consider dominant. TCU has dealt with North Carolina, which turned out to not be a big win; SMU, who is solid; and Colorado, who is now a legit 2-4 on the year. We once again believe the market has set a bad line in this game, and we are going to exploit it. TCU is way overspeculated due to their opening statement win on the season over Bill Belichick. Since then, they have been competitive, not dominant. Kansas State can definitely work this team on the pass game, and dual threat Avery Johnson should have a massive impact on the offensive side of the ball. Let’s take the +1.5 even though we believe Kansas State wins this game outright.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
6 Unit – Take #161 Alabama (-3) over Missouri (-110) (12:00p.m, Saturday, October 11th)Alabama heads to Missouri for an early SEC kickoff, and this is shaping up to be a statement game for the Crimson Tide. Alabama comes in ranked 8th with a 4-1 record, their only loss coming in the season opener to Florida State. Since then, they’ve completely turned things around, with Ty Simpson leading a sharp, efficient offense. Last week against Vanderbilt, Simpson went 23-of-31 for 340 yards and two touchdowns, showing poise and precision, with only one interception a mistake he’s likely to clean up against Missouri. Missouri is undefeated at 5-0 and ranked 14th, but outside of Kansas, they haven’t faced the level of competition Alabama brings. Their defense is strong, but Alabama’s offensive line and balanced attack will be the toughest challenge they’ve seen this season. On the other side of the ball, Alabama’s defense is top 20 nationally, allowing just 285 yards per game, and should be able to test Missouri’s offense like few teams have. All signs point to Alabama coming in ready to make a statement. I like the Tide to show why they’re one of the best in the country and handle the undefeated Tigers on the road.
Take #161 Alabama (-3) over Missouri (-110)
Nick Menken
3 Unit – Take #145 Iowa Hawkeyes (-3) over Wisconsin (-110) (7:00p.m, Saturday, October 11th)
Iowa comes into this game 3-2 on the season after a very tough home loss to Indiana last week, which resulted in a 20-15 final. Wisconsin is a solid football team, and we are not taking anything away from them. They are physical on the offensive side and can hold their own against whoever they do play. The problem we are finding with Wisconsin is they are blowing out bad teams and getting blown out by good teams. Wisconsin has dealt with Maryland and Michigan in back-to-back games, which is definitely no easy task. The problem with this is Wisconsin is not being competitive. This team has a very tough time closing games out, and this has been an ongoing issue for this team for several years. Iowa comes into this game 4th in the nation when it comes to rushing yards against. So as we mentioned, Wisconsin is physical against anybody; we just don't believe their physicality is going to be able to sustain an entire 4 quarters with this Iowa Hawkeyes team. The public is going to love the bait with Wisconsin at home catching +3 points. We find this as a market trap, and they are showing vulnerability here. Iowa is the better team across all cylinders, and their offense should expose this Wisconsin defense just like Maryland and Michigan did in their two most recent matchups. There is nothing to overlook here; we love Iowa and would not be surprised if by the end of the 4th quarter this game lands on a 2-possession game in Iowa’s favor.
Take #145 Iowa Hawkeyes (-3) over Wisconsin (-110)
Nick Menken
1 Unit – Take #202 Texas ML (-115) over Oklahoma (3:30p.m, Saturday, October 11th)
The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners head to Jerry’s World this weekend for one of college football’s biggest rivalries. Oklahoma has questions at quarterback, as John Meteer didn’t play last week in their 44-0 win over Kent State, and now he’ll have to face a Texas defense ready to pounce. The Longhorns are coming off a disappointing 29-21 loss to Florida and will be looking for a statement win to get their season back on track. With Oklahoma’s quarterback situation banged up, Texas has a real opportunity to take control on defense, bringing pressure and forcing Meteer into uncomfortable situations. On offense, Texas will need to protect the ball, but if they play disciplined and aggressive football, this is the perfect spot for them to make a statement. Oklahoma is a capable team, but the Longhorns’ motivation and defensive edge should give them the advantage. I like Texas to step up and take this one moneyline over Oklahoma.
Take #202 Texas ML (-115) over Oklahoma
Nick Menken
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