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Last Week's Expert College Football Picks From Our Handicappers.
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Doc's Sports
passRobert Ferringo
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS2-Unit Play. Take #325 Liberty (-6.5) over Jacksonville State (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 6)
Jacksonville State was a game underdog in its opener against Central Florida last week. That game featured a weather delay and sloppy conditions, though, and UCF just wasn’t very sharp. This Jacksonville State team lost as much production as any team in the country and I still think they are going to struggle this season. They allowed over 300 yards to a pedestrian UCF passing game. We know Liberty will run the ball but if they can move it easily in the air too then I just don’t know how Jax State is going to stop the Flames. Liberty will want revenge for a home loss to Rich Rod’s Jacksonville State team from last year and in 2023 Liberty had no problem going into this stadium and earning a 31-13 win.
2-Unit Play. Take #329 Iowa (+3.5) over Iowa State (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 6)
I really like this Iowa team and I am always down to back Kirk Ferentz as an underdog. These two teams have alternated wins each of the past four seasons and the underdog has won three of those four games. In fact, the dog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and this series is full of close, tight, low-scoring games. Only two of the last seven meetings has been decided by more than one score and both of those games were 10-point wins. Iowa is 6-0 SU in its last six road games in this rivalry series and I can’t see this game not being close in the fourth quarter.
1-Unit Play. Take #332 Syracuse (-6.5) over Connecticut (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 6)
I though Syracuse looked a little better than I expected last week against Tennessee. The Orange should get a boost from the home crowd here and they won’t be overlooking a Huskies team that they only beat 31-24 last season. The Huskies lost all four games they played against Power 4 opponents last year, including a loss to Wake Forest at home. Don’t be fooled by UConn’s nine wins last season; they came against schlubs. Connecticut has lost eight straight to teams from major conferences and if Syracuse can stop the run a little better they should get their first win.
1-Unit Play. Take #333 Baylor (+2.5) over SMU (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 6)
This feels like a make-or-break game for Dave Aranda. It’s been six years and this is one of his best, most experienced teams. The Bears couldn’t take out Auburn in their home opener. And now staring at the prospect of an 0-2 start you have to think they are going to be playing with some desperation. This team picked up road wins at Houston, West Virginia and Texas Tech last year so they are capable of winning on the road. I am also just not as high on SMU this season. They still have quarterback Kevin Jennings and some nice skill pieces. They aren’t as strong in the trenches, though, and they didn’t look overwhelming last week against TAMC. I’ll back the desperate team here.
2-Unit Play. Take #341 Mississippi (-9) over Kentucky (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
I was fine playing this number at -10. Obviously there is action on the home underdog but I’m not going to bite. I only trust Lane Kiffin so much but this is a major revenge spot for the Rebels, who lost 20-15 at home last year when they were in the Top 10 and 15-point favorites. This is not as strong of a Kentucky team and I think their quarterback, Zach Calzada, stinks. The Rebels have too much on both sides of the ball.
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #333 Baylor (+9.5) over SMU (Noon) AND Take #341 Mississippi (-2) over Kentucky (3:30 p.m.)
3-Unit Play. Take #343 Kansas (+6.5) over Missouri (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
I’m going to grab the points in another rivalry game. The thing that has jumped out to me about Kansas in their opening wins has been the defense, which has allowed just 14 points in two games. Missouri’s offense is in a state of flux, with a new quarterback and new skill players around him. If they can’t get things going or give Kansas extra possessions then I can definitely see the Jayhawks hunting for an upset. Kansas went on the road last year and lost to Illinois (by 6), West Virginia (by 4), Arizona State (by 4), Kansas State (by 2) and they beat No. 7 BYU. That’s four losses by an average of four points per game and I think that the Jayhawks are better this season. When Jalon Daniels is healthy and right he is as good as any quarterback in the country. I think the Jayhawks have a slight edge with more game action under their belts and I think they can get the outright win.
4-Unit Play. Take #346 Navy (-21) over UAB (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
Trent Dilfer is a joke. His UAB team is a joke. This will be his last year at this campus, so enjoy these last few opportunities to bet against him. Dilfer’s team is 8-17 in his three years at the helm and they are coming off a thoroughly uninspiring win over FCS foe Alabama State, a team that finished in fifth place in the SWAC last year. UAB was up 45-42 in that game before a touchdown with 1:19 left set the final score (52-42). They were losing that game at halftime and allowed Alabama State’s top two rushers 173 yards on 30 attempts. So if Alabama State can rush for six yards per carry against the Blazers, what is Navy going to do? The Middies ran up a 52-7 win in their opener and are now on a 5-1 ATS run dating back to last season, with the only loss coming against a very good Tulane team. This is Navy’s best team in several seasons and they should deliver a knockout early to this overmatched UAB team. The Blazers have lost to Army and Navy by 25, 23 and 34 points the last two seasons and I don’t think Dilfer has any idea how to defend the option. Take Navy to roll.
2-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #343 Kansas (+13.5) over Missouri (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #346 Navy (-14) over UAB (3:30 p.m.,
5-Unit Play. Take #356 Cincinnati (-21.5) over Bowling Green (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
Do we have any idea if Eddie George can actually coach? He was only 24-22 in four years at Tennessee State and had a winning conference record exactly once. Last week Bowling Green won George’s opener 26-7 but it was hardly an inspiring performance. They ran back the opening kickoff and then did jack against a Lafayette Leopards team that was one of the worst in the Patriot League last season. They only managed 265 yards of total offense and didn’t score an offensive touchdown. Now the Falcons are stepping way, way up in class against a Cincinnati team that I think has a chance to be very good this year. I was on the Bearcats last week against Nebraska and they had a great shot at winning that game. Scott Satterfield knows what he’s doing and I don’t think he is going to take it easy on a Bowling Green team that recruits similar areas. The Bearcats have curb stomped bad opponents in recent years, scoring five nonconference wins by 35 or more points and two by 50+. I don’t see this game being competitive in any way.
2-Unit Play. Take #367 South Florida (+18) over Florida (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
I’m going back to the well with South Florida. We hit a 5-Unit winner with them over Boise State and there was absolutely nothing fluky about that game, with the Bulls winning 34-7. This is Alex Golesh’s best team and the Bulls have been feisty against power teams over the last several years. Last season they hung around with both Alabama (lead 14-13 going into the fourth quarter) and Miami (down 22-15 midway through the third quarter) before losing two ‘blowouts’ with misleading finals. In 2023 they only lost 17-3 to Alabama and in 2022 the hung around in a 31-28 loss to the Gators. Florida dominated in their opener. But how much do we really trust Billy Napier, a guy that was set to be fired before a late-season turnaround last year? The Gators have LSU, Miami and Texas on deck so we have to wonder how seriously they are taking this in-state little brother. Florida was only favored in three games last year and seven the past two seasons. They are 5-9 ATS when laying points under Napier, with four outright losses. Don’t be surprised if the Bulls hang around.
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #367 South Florida (+25) over Florida (4 p.m.) AND Take #398 Mississippi State (+13.5) over Arizona State (7:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #372 Hawaii (-6.5) over Sam Houston State (11:50 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
1-Unit Play. Take #370 Arkansas (-23.5) over Arkansas State (5 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
Butch Jones is a solid coach and doing decent work here with Arkansas State. If he was going to move back up to a bigger job he should’ve done it after last year’s surprise eight-win season, though. The Red Wolves won a ton of close games and they aren’t nearly as talented or experienced this time around. ASU has also gotten slaughtered under Jones when they step up to face top competition, taking losses by scores of 52-3, 45-12, 73-0, 37-3 and 52-7. Sam Pittman hasn’t been great in the role of big favorite in his career at Arkansas. I think he has one of his better teams, though, and should have his guys ready to go for this neutral site affair.
1-Unit Play. Take #373 Missouri State (+10) over Marshall (6 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
Missouri State’s opener went about as well as one could expect, with the Bears losing 73-13 to a not-screwing-around USC squad. These guys are still just happy to be in D-I and I think they will bounce back pretty quick. I also don’t think that Marshall should be laying points to anyone. They got bullied by Georgia 45-7 and I think that this Herd team is just flat-out bad.
7-Unit Play. Take #378 Kansas State (-17) over Army (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
That is now two straight uninspiring efforts from Kansas State. I have too much respect for Chris Klieman to think that his teams will continue to disappoint. What do you think those practices were like for the Wildcats this week? I bet Klieman gives his horses the whip this week. I am selling the Black Knights. They had a dream season in 2024 and lost two special players in Bryson Daly (who was awesome) and Kayne Udoh. Army threw up on itself while blowing a 24-10 lead in an OT loss to Tarleton State last week. That is the type of loss that can absolutely crush a team and linger for weeks. The one ‘real’ team that Army played in the regular season last year was Notre Dame, and that game was 39-14. In 2023 Army lost 62-0 at LSU and 29-16 against a bad Syracuse team. They also lost 45-10 at Wake Forest in 2022, so stepping up in class hasn’t been a strong spot for Army. Kansas State could use a blowout to take out some frustration after losing to Iowa State and nearly losing to North Dakota. The Wildcats are always a handful in Manhattan and they aren’t going to be taking a team that won 12 games last year lightly.
1-Unit Play. 7-POINT TEASER: Take #356 Cincinnati (-14.5) over Bowling Green (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #378 Kansas State (-10) over Army (7 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. Take #380 Georgia State (+13.5) over Memphis (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
There is a heavy reverse line movement in this game. Over 90% of the action in this game is coming down on Memphis, and with good reason. They are a name brand mid-major team and one of the favorites to claim the Group of Five’s playoff spot. However, the line is going completely the other way, dropping from an open of 14.0. Ryan Silverfield’s teams have always been a little shaky on the road. The Tigers lost six times away from home last season and are just 4-8 SU in their last 12 road games. Georgia State is not a good team and they are coming off a 63-7 maiming at the hands of Ole Miss. This team was real competitive last year, though, and sprung outright upsets over Vanderbilt and Texas State (as a 21-point underdog). Six of their nine losses were by 17 points or fewer, putting us right around this number, and another was a 22-point loss to Georgia Tech. Something tells me that the Tigers will have a hard time shaking the Panthers in Atlanta Saturday night.
2-Unit Play. Take #382 South Alabama (+10) over Tulane (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
Everyone and their sister were selling Tulane last week, as their line against Northwestern steamed down from an open of -10 to a close of -4.5. The Green Wave responded with a 23-3 win that was completely misleading, as Tulane benefitted from five Northwestern turnovers. The Green Wave have been a serious moneymaker over the last several seasons but I think that the sportsbooks are catching up to them a bit. South Alabama isn’t a pushover. They have gone to three straight bowl games under Major Applewhite and this team can put pressure on opponents with their offense.
3-Unit Play. Take #392 Michigan State (-4.5) over Boston College (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
I missed last week with Michigan State as they couldn’t put away Western Michigan in a game the Spartans led 21-0 at halftime. Gross. I’m going right back to them here, though, as I stick to my belief that this is going to be a much-improved team in year two under Jon Smith. Boston College went pass-happy last week against overmatched Fordham. They only managed 97 rushing yards in 39 attempts, though, and that’s a bit of a red flag. Michigan State is tough at home and I think clearly the better side.
1-Unit Play. Take #396 Nebraska (-34) over Akron (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
It’s a night game in Lincoln against an overmatched opponent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Matt Rhule bury the needle here. They only have Holy Cross next week so the Huskers aren’t looking ahead to anything.
4-Unit Play. Take #398 Mississippi State (+6.5) over Arizona State (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
These two teams met last year in Temple with Arizona State as a 6.5-point favorite in that game as well. The Sun Devils jumped out to a 27-3 halftime lead and were able to hold on for the win and cover. I think it is going to be a little different story in Starkville this year. The Bulldogs looked pretty solid last week in a true road win at Southern Miss. They piled up nearly 500 yards of offense and were physically dominating. They are now playing with revenge and with the cowbells and home faithful behind them. Arizona State was outstanding last year. They weren’t exactly dominant, though, with six of their 10 regular season wins coming by a TD or less and losses to middling Texas Tech and Cincinnati squads. Those close wins include a three-point win at Texas State and just a four-point win over Central Florida. Jeff Lebby’s team looks improved and with a veteran quarterback and plenty of points I think all the value is on the home team.
4-Unit Play. Take #400 Oklahoma (-4.5) over Michigan (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
There is no way around it: this is a statement game for Brent Venables and the Sooners. This game is everything for Oklahoma and I think they are going to rise to the occasion. Michigan’s freshman quarterback, Bryce Underwood, is the real deal. He is still a freshman, though, and he’s never started or played in a game like this. I was not very impressed with how Michigan looked last week against a pathetic New Mexico team. That game was just 27-17 heading into the fourth quarter (and Michigan benefited from three INTs) so it was not a blowout by any means. The Wolverines have lost a ton of talent and experience the last two offseasons and we still don’t really know what Sharone Moore is as a head coach. This team wasn’t good on the road last year and I think the home team wants this one more than the Wolverines.
2-Unit Play. Take #411 San Diego State (+1.5) over Washington State (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
Washington State is another one of these teams like Jacksonville State and Marshall and several others that were just gutted by the transfer portal. They lost everyone, including in the coaching staff. This team is not good at all and I don’t know that they should be laying points to anyone in the Mountain West. I’m not high on SDSU at all either. But they didn’t barely beat Idaho last week, like the Cougars did. This line is sinking like a stone and with good reason.
Craig Trapp
4-Unit Play. Take #335 Illinois (-3) Over Duke (12 p.m., Saturday, September 6)This Duke team was one of my favorite teams to win with last year but against very good and physical Illinois team its too much in week 2. Coach Beilima has one of the more balanced units and with tons of experience, no problem winning and covering on road on Saturday. Take Illinois to win and cover the spread.
3-Unit Play. Take #377 Ole Miss (-8.5) Over Kentucky (3:30 p.m., Saturday, September 6)
This Ole Miss team was held out of the playoffs in large part to the ugly loss at home vs this Kentucky team, that revenge in mind will be huge motivation this week. Wildcats didn’t look good against Toledo and just can’t keep up against very good Ole Miss team. Take Ole Miss Rebels to win and cover the spread.
2-Unit Play. Take #377 Army (+17) Over K State (7 p.m., Saturday, September 6)
Playing Army with no bye week is always tough but make it even tougher you have Army coming off ugly loss to Tarelton State. Army does enough on offense to keep this within the number against a K State team that has not looked good in either game. Take Army to cover the spread in week 2.
6-Unit Play. Take #405 Over (55.5) UCLA vs UNLV (8 p.m., Saturday, September 6)
Early in the week we were going to play UNLV on the spread, which still think Rebels will win here, but the system spit out even bigger play on the over play in this game. Think UNLV gets us 30 plus and UCLA will do their part to get over 30 too. Take the Over in UNLV vs UCLA game on Saturday night.
Craig
Scott Rickenbach
3-Unit Play. Take #315 Northern Illinois (+16.5) at Maryland (7:30 p.m., Friday, Sept. 5)Classic case of early season over-reaction. Maryland rolled 39-7 over Florida Atlantic last week but the yardage was about equal in that game but the Terrapins benefited from 6 Owls turnovers! I know that Northern Illinois should have blasted Holy Cross and did not last week but that is what is adding to the value here. Terps yardage was about equal with FAU yet they won by 32 and the Huskies yardage edge was only 70 yards over HC and the big story was they won the game by just 2 points. I feel that sets this one up for strong line value on a big dog. The Huskies will play slow and emphasize their ground game and try to shorten the game in this fashion and keep the Maryland offense off the field. The Huskies can keep this interesting because Maryland could come in overconfident off last week's big margin win that, again, was not commensurate with the box score. When you have an undervalued road dog that is getting big points and can run the ball well on offense, it is worth a 2nd look and in this case, this one checks all the boxes to be worthy of a play. Too many points here. Grab the big dog. 3* NORTHERN ILLINOIS +16.5
3-Unit Play. Take #335 Illinois (-3) at Duke (12:00 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
We get line value here because Illinois is on the road. The Illini are the much more experienced team and also looked much stronger in week one than the Blue Devils. Yes, Duke won big too but it was a 7 point game with Elon at one point in the 4th quarter. As for Illinois, they obliterated Western Illinois last week and they have been strong on the road under coach Bielema. They have covered 75% of their last 20 road games. The Illini returned their entire offensive line from last season and the majority of their top defensive players on the other side of the ball. The Blue Devils did not fare so well against stronger teams last season despite their improved overall record. Keep in mind here they are facing one of those higher-tiered teams and the fact is that Illinois is very deserving of their #11 ranking. Lay the small number here and look for a road rout! 3* ILLINOIS -3
4-Unit Play. Take #341 Ole Miss (-8.5) at Kentucky (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
100% revenge can be overplayed. It is never automatic but special cases of revenge bring special value and that is the key here. Ole Miss losing to Kentucky last season could be blamed for keeping the Rebels out of the playoffs. They most certainly have not forgotten the defeat and this is their chance at payback! The Rebels are the much stronger team heading into this season and got a nice tuneup for this game last week by blasting Georgia Southern 63 to 7. That game gave Ole Miss a chance to get things clicking on both sides of the ball and they did just that! As for Kentucky, they did face a tougher team than the Rebels did last week but still it was a MAC team and the Wildcats did not impress as they were outgained in the eventual 7 point win. Look for the Rebels to bully the Cats in the trenches on both sides of the ball and the motivation and desire and talent edges are there to turn this into a road rout as they pull away for the revenge-minded double digit win! 4* Ole Miss -8.5
7-Unit Play. Take #411 San Diego State (+1.5) at Washington State (10:15 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
This is a very high-value spot. San Diego State almost beat the Cougars last season but allowed 15 points unanswered to John Mateer and company in the 3-point loss. Of course Mateer is no longer here and truly this Cougars team is a shell of its former self. It is an all new offense and new staff overall at Washington State. They barely beat Idaho last week and did not look good at all in doing it. Conversely, here you are looking at a much improved San Diego State side that is in its 2nd year under head coach Lewis. I really like their offensive style and plus this is a defense that returned almost all their starters. This is a classic case of two teams in vastly different situations. As a result you have a road team likely to roll here yet priced as a small dog. Yes, the Aztecs faced an outclassed foe last week but so too did the Cougars. The difference Is that SD State rolled by a 42-0 count and the boxscore matched the total domination in the final scoreline too. The point of all this is that we have an early season situation were a favorite still has some line shading due to last season's results. Remember Washington State finished on a losing streak but started last season 8-1 while San Diego State went just 3-9 last season. That means this line might seem like a bargain to take the Cougars (based on LY) but in reality the situation this season is much more different for both teams and this is a chance to capitalize before the markets fully catch up. 7* SAN DIEGO STATE +1.5
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
4-Unit Play. Take Florida -17.5 over South Florida (Saturday @ 4:15pm est)South Flordia had a great game against Boise State and I think they have a massive let down against Florida. Florida is the real deal, they will not let some upstart team with a new coach in Golesh who has not faced them come in and rock them like they destroyed Boise State. This is a deer on a mantle that this Florida team wants and with Florida beating the likes of LSU, Ole Miss to close out the year, Florida is deep, hungry and this is a fantastic public fade here. Florida has 14 starters back, including 4 offensive lineman and I think USF's uptempo offense could stall a bit here which can lead to Florida strangling them and posting a hgue win.
4-Unit Play. #373. Take Over 55.5 Missouri State vs. Marshall (Saturday @ 6:05pm est)
I know it looks a little scary to take this line but we like the Over here. Look, Missouri State had to face USC the first game and they got clobbered 13-73, their offense is much better than that and Marshall had to face mighty Georgia and put up 7 points. Both these first year coaches have some talent and will do better than their first game as the defenses they will be playing are significantly weaker and they need to show their fanbase they can score. Look for a high scoring affair here as we think Missouri state is an active dog too and we love this game to go over.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK #23 Unit Play. Take #392 Michigan St -4.5 over Boston College (7:30p.m., Saturday September 6 NBC)
A nice ACC vs. Big Ten matchup Saturday night at Spartan Stadium and I like the home team. Boston College beat Fordham last week 66-10 but the Rams are not even close to Michigan St. I know the Spartans offense struggled in the second half last week but the Spartans defense will give us the big win. The Michigan St Spartans have won each if its last 9 September games as a favorite.
5 Unit Play. Take #402 Over 60.5 Georgia Southern at USC (7:30p.m., Saturday September 6 FS1)
Saturday night at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum we should see the scoreboard operator working overtime. Last weekend the USC Trojans welcomed the Missouri St Bears and the Trojans won 73-13 and that total was only 59.5. At halftime in that game the total almost went ‘Over’ as 52 points were scored at half. Georgia Southern lost to Fresno St 42-14 and if the Bulldogs scored 40 plus last weekend what will the Trojans score at home. Georgia Southern last 5 road games 4 of them have gone ‘Over’ the total. USC last 5 home games all 5 of them have gone ‘Over’ the total. Let’s also throw in that USC is 11-2 O/U after allowing less than 100 yards of rushing in their last game.
Tony George
College FootballSaturday 9/6/25
4 Units
#381 Tulane (-10.5) over South Alabama *7 EST
Tulane just railed Northwestern from the Big 10 last week at home by 20 points as a -4.5 favorite. They racked up an impressive 269 yards rushing in that game and countered with 150 yards passing. The Green Wave held NW to 76 rushing. South Alabama played Morgan St and gave up 181 yards rushing in that game even though they won by 17. Tulane beating up a Big 10 school, despite NW not being a top tier team in the Big 10, is still impressive. My algorithm has this one of the highest rated plays of the weekend. Huge step up in class for So. Bama, I like Tulane by 2 TD’s here, even on the road. The should control the line of scrimmage.
2 Units
#344 Missouri (-6.5) over Kansas *3:30 EST
Border war and it has been a while. I cannot stress enough how better than average Mizzou has been. Over the past 2 years they are 3rd in SEC in W-L. Only behind Bama and Georgia. They are well coached and have a huge defensive edge in this one, and they got Trotter from WV on defense in the portal. KU will have big issues moving the ball. QN Daniels is 3 games below .500 as a starter for KU and was once hypoed as NFL material. He has been a bust for the most part.
Mizzou has not hosted this game since 2006 and trust me when I tell you, this will be a sellout and a wild crowd. Home field worth a full 3 points here. Mizzou did lose their kicker last week for the season but have a solid backup I have been told. Kansas beating up Fresno St and Wagner is not impressive. This is where the Jayhawks get exposed in my mind, and Mizzou may be one of the more underrated teams in the country and potentially a 1 or 2 loss team with their schedule. 19-9 ATS their last 28 games dating back as well.
3 Units
#341 Ol Miss FIRST HALF(-6.5) over Kentucky *3:30 EST
I watched Kentucky struggle big time against Toledo last week. Ol Miss dispatched Georgia St with ease 63-7 and QB Austin Simmons threw for 340+ yards and they ran it for 295 yards as well. Simmons needs to clean up the interceptions as he had 2 of them, but another Lane Kiffin big armed gunslinger is in house and a deep RB unit as well. The key here is Kentucky went into Ol Miss last year as a 15 point dog and put up a 20-17 win on the Rebels and this is payback and a game that has been circled. I expect Ol Miss to come out of the gate hot and have at least a TD lead at halftime. Toledo threw for 270 against Kentucky last week and held the Wildcats to 85 yards passing. If Ol Miss can stuff the run here, they can win this by 10+, but I do not lay that on the road. Play the first half line.
3 Units
#345 / #346 Navy / UAB (OVER 58.5) 3:30 EST
How bad is UAB? Well they gave up 42 points to Alabama State, were tied in first downs with them, and were down at home at halftime. More shocking despite a win, they gave up 202 yards rushing and 515 yards of offense. Navy is a veteran team with a triple option attack that will slice and dice all game long, and QB Horvath for Navy is a very good QB for the triple option. UAB did put up 52 points last week and had 590 yards offense. They have offense and no defense. I see plenty of opportunity for Navy to rack up points and UAB is capable in some small measure of putting up 20+ as well. Navy favored 21 here. The Midshipmen should be in the 40’s if they keep the hammer down. Play this Over.
Vernon Croy
NO CFB PLAYS THIS WEEKScott Spreitzer
2-Unit Play: Take 328 Pittsburgh -22.5 over C. Michigan (12 p.m., Sat., Sept. 6)Central Michigan is in a tough spot. They upset San Jose State as a double digit road underdog last week and now face an improved Pittsburgh team with a strong offensive line and skill position players that can light up the scoreboard. CMU’s win had more to do with SJSU mistakes than anything else. The Chips scored 13 of its 16 points off of three Spartan turnovers. Look for Pitt QB Eli Holstein to light-up the Chips’ secondary. I’m laying the points with the Pitt Panthers. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
1-Unit Play: Take 336 Duke +3 over Illinois (12 p.m., Saturday, September 6)
Illinois won five games by one score last season and all five could have gone either way, including OT wins over Nebraska & Purdue. And because they won those 50-50 games they’ve been hyped to the hilt this summer. They beat up a bad Western Illinois program in week-one and this week will be a tough test in Durham. The fact Duke started so slowly against Elon gives us some value. Duke, a 36.5-point favorite, was tied at 10 at the half last week. But former Tulane QB Darian Mensah got his feet wet then got it together in the second half. Duke gained 548 yards on 9.3 yards per play. They held Elon to 275 yards on 4.4 per play. Earlier this week, I saw one book that had about 80% of its handle on Illinois – but I’m on Duke plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
7-Unit Play: Take 356 Cincinnati -21.5 over Bowling Green (3:30 p.m., Sat., Sept. 6)
Cincinnati gave Nebraska all it could handle but couldn’t solve Nebraska’s pass defense which is much improved. QB Brendan Sorsby’s passing stats weren’t pretty but he and RB Tawee Walker ran the ball well. The offensive line moved Nebraska off the line of scrimmage time-and-time again. Bowling Green is obviously a big step down in level of competition. They were sluggish on offense against an out-manned Lafayette squad. The Falcons finished with just 17 first downs and 265 yards on 4.3 yards per play. The ground game was rather anemic, gaining just 3.5 yards per carry. Sorsby should do what he wants this week against the Falcons and Cincy WR Cyrus Allen, the one wideout who kept Nebraska busy, goes unmatched. Add a little extra time to prepare and I’m laying the points with Cincinnati. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
2-Unit Play: Take 399 Michigan +5.5 over Oklahoma (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
I’m taking the points with Michigan. This number opened as low as OU minus-3 in a couple of books and while that was a bad number for those behind the counter, it was closer to power rating numbers than the current line. I believe OU is overrated and mentioned it before the season began. They finished on a 3-6 slide last season and while the defense was solid, the offense was not. While I realize OU hid a few things from Michigan in last week’s 35-3 win over Illinois State, the bottom line is that they didn’t run the ball well, averaging just 3.21 yards per carry and led by just 21-3 through three quarters. The Sooners will get a couple of offensive linemen back this week but I don’t believe they’ll win the battles up front with Michigan. The Wolverines held UNM to 3.51 yards per play last week while gaining 452 yards on 7.17 per play. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood looked seasoned, and stayed away from big mistakes. I believe this battle will be won in the trenches and Michigan is better in the trenches. I’m taking the points with Michigan. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
1-Unit Play: Take 398 Mississippi St. +6.5 over Arizona St. (7:30 p.m., Sat., Sept 6)
I’m taking the points with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State HC Jeff Lebby made outstanding roster additions to this team as he heads into his second season. MSU is much better up front on both sides of the line of scrimmage than they were a season ago. They have 16 returning starters and more size and athleticism in the trenches. While it took a half last week for the new parts to come together they did dominate at Southern Miss over the final two quarters, outgaining the Eagles by 164 yards, (6 yards per play). Most importantly, QB Blake Shapen is healthy after a season-ending injury in game-four last season. ASU is solid but I’m betting the number is too big. I’m taking the points with Mississippi State. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
August Young
4-Unit Play - [314] Louisville -14 -110 over James Madison (9/5 | 7:00PM EST) James Madison pounded Weber State on the ground last week, but that kind of dominance won’t translate against ACC size and speed. Quarterback Alonzo Barnett III is still working back from his ACL injury, and asking him to stay efficient against Louisville’s pressure is a tall order. Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals have explosive playmakers everywhere, led by Isaac Brown, who ripped off two long touchdown runs in the opener. Clean up the penalties and turnovers, and this offense has the firepower to stretch a margin quickly. With Louisville’s depth and athletic edge across the board, laying -14 is the right side.4-Unit Play - [329] Iowa +3.5 (-110) over Iowa State (9/6 | 12:00PM EST) The Cy-Hawk Trophy sits in Ames after last year's matchup, but history has been all Iowa in this building with six straight wins on the road. Iowa State's hot start can't be ignored after knocking off Kansas State and hammering South Dakota, while Iowa's 34-7 win over Albany looked flat compared to the number. Still, catching +3.5 now that the line has ticked through the key number puts the value squarely on the Hawkeyes, who have consistently handled this trip regardless of form.
4-Unit Play - [334] SMU -2.5 (-110) over Baylor (9/6 | 12:00PM EST) Both teams enter needing a statement, but SMU looks better positioned to deliver. Baylor was completely outclassed at the line of scrimmage against Auburn, giving up over 300 rushing yards while producing next to nothing of their own. That kind of physical mismatch doesn’t correct itself in one week. SMU’s 42 points in their opener were boosted by two defensive scores, but the Mustangs still have the offensive balance and playmakers to control this matchup. With Dave Aranda’s team still searching for answers and SMU laying less than a field goal, the Mustangs -2.5 is the sharper side at the current market price.
4-Unit Play - [344] Missouri -6.5 (-110) over Kansas (9/6 | 3:30PM EST) The Border War is finally back after more than a decade away, with plenty of emotion on both sidelines. Kansas enters 2-0 with some early momentum, but this is a major step up in class compared to their first two opponents. Missouri, meanwhile, took care of business in their opener behind new QB Beau Pribula, who was efficient and accurate, completing 23 of 28 passes for 283 yards. With Eli Drinkwitz dialing up a balanced attack and a defense that's more battle-tested, laying less than a touchdown with Missouri feels like the right side.
4-Unit Play - [399] Michigan +5.5 -110 over Oklahoma (9/6 | 7:30PM EST) The ABC Saturday night spotlight brings two blue-blood programs together, and catching points with Michigan feels like the value. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood looked calm in his debut, throwing for 251 yards, and he’s supported by a run game led by Justice Haynes, who exploded for 159 yards and three touchdowns. Oklahoma’s John Mateer was sharp last week, but this will be his first true test against a defense with Big Ten size and speed. Even with Jaishawn Barham sitting the first half, Michigan has the balance and depth to keep this tight, making +5.5 worth grabbing.
Strike Point Sports
3-Unit Play. Take #329 Iowa (+3.5) over Iowa State (noon, Saturday, Sept. 6)Iowa State hasn't won back to back games against Iowa since the 2011-2012 season. I like Iowa this season and I think they are very underrated. Yes, they have another outstanding defense, but I believe in their offense more than I have the last few years. Iowa State has looked great but I like the Hawkeyes in the underdog role here. Iowa are the big brothers of this series and they have revenge on their minds. Give me the Hawkeyes.
3-Unit Play. Take #336 Duke (+3) over Illinois (noon, Saturday, Sept. 6)
A ton of money is coming in on Illinois and yet this line has held steady at three points. Duke is a dangerous team and they are going to put one over on Illinois in this one. I like the Blue Devils to win this game outright and get a huge home win. Illinois seems to have all the moxy as they are a ranked team playing against a non-ranked team that didn't look domiant against Elon, but the play is the Blue Devils. Duke has enough on both sides of the football to suprise everyone here. Give me the home dog.
3-Unit Play. Take #338 Indiana (-35.5) over Kennesaw State (noon, Saturday, Sept. 6)
Indiana didn't get the job done ATS in their first game, but that was because of a few miscues and not necessarily poor play. The Hoosiers are going to turn this game into a bloodbath quite early. Don't be surprised to see Indiana up four or five touchdowns in the first half of this one. This is the definition of a mismatch. Lay the monster number.
5-Unit Play. Take #341 Mississippi (-8.5) over Kentucky (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 6)
This is the absolute revenge game. Yes, Kentucky does get up for big games, but I don't like this Wildcat team. Kentucky was an easy fade for me in Week 1, and I'm going right back to fading them again. Ole Miss had a shot at the CFP last season, and then they lost at home to Kentucky and it ruined their season. Lane Kiffin's crew is going to try and destroy Kentucky this year, so if they have a chance to score late they are going to do just that. Laying nearly double-figures is something I am not going to hesitate to do. Kentucky is not going to be able to run the ball as efficiently in this game and their passing game leaves much to be desired. Lay the points here.
Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports
Jason Sharpe
Friday September 5th 2025-CFB-
3 Unit Play Take #315 Northern Illinois +16.5 over Maryland (7:30pm est):
Maryland's 39-7 victory last week over Florida Atlantic might have been the most misleading final score of the weekend in CFB action as the Terrapins got very lucky as FAU fumbled the ball away an unheard of 6 times in the contest. It's always a good idea to look to fade a CFB team off a game where they were +5 or more in turnovers IF they failed to score 44+ points in the game like Maryland did last week as doing so would have cashed a ticked 60% betting against them the following since 2012. Northern Illinois has been very good in this role of a road underdog under head coach Thomas Hammock having covered 17 of 22 times including last year's 16-14 huge upset win over Notre Dame as +28 point underdogs.
Take Northern Illinois plus the points.
Saturday September 6th 2025-
5 Unit Play Take #333 Baylor +2.5 over SMU (12:00pm est):
I think the wrong team is favored in this one. I think we see a desperate performance here from this Baylor squad who lost last week to Auburn but keep in mind that Auburn not only returned a kick return for a touchdown but also Baylor was stopped twice on downs inside the 10 yard line in that contest. I like to dig deeper when FBS teams play an FCS foe and try and find what I call faulty final scores and I think we have that here from SMU last week who at first glance look like they dominated East Texas A&M in a 45-13 win but keep in mind the Mustangs were not only -50 point favorites in that contest but they only had 49 more yards of offense and benefitted in a big way from two pick six touchdowns on defense.
Take Baylor plus the points.
3 Unit Play Take #407 Tulsa -4 over New Mexico State (9:00pm est):
(-4 is at SuperBook, Circa Sports and BetOnline)
I was actually impressed by Tulsa in their season opener as they looked the part winning easily 35-7 over Abilene Christian in a game they were only favored by -5.5 points. They look to be the much stronger of these two teams considering New Mexico State looked awful in their opening game win over a bad FCS foe in Bryant. The Aggies don't have much going for them especially on offense and I think they struggle in this contest.
Take Tulsa minus the points.
Griffin Murphy
7 Unit Play - Take #333 Baylor (+2.5) Over SMU (12:00p.m, Saturday, September 6th)Baylor opened up the season with a very tough matchup against Auburn, which resulted in a 38-24 loss. Baylor absolutely dominated the pass game against Auburn with 419 yards in the air. The issue for Baylor was their run game lacked significantly, with just 64 yards on the ground. Auburn is a top-tier defense with a very strong and veteran front 7. SMU is coming off an 11-3 season and is now fresh off a 42-13 win over a brutal East Texas A&M team. The public is going to be all over SMU here, as you can get them a little juiced on a straight moneyline play. This is where we immediately catch the trap. SMU has returned only 2 starters on the defensive side, both in the secondary. If East Texas A&M was able to acquire 107 yards on the ground, we have full faith that Baylor’s run game is going to be extremely effective here. Baylor has returned 7 starters on the offensive side of the ball, including their QB, RB, WRs, and a pair of offensive linemen. The 1st game jitters are over for Baylor, and we believe they will come in and pound the rock against SMU, which will eventually open the pass game for Sawyer Robertson, who went 27-48 against Auburn with 419 yards and 3 TDs. We love Baylor here and believe they are going to put SMU right back into their place.
Take #333 Baylor (+2.5) Over SMU
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #349 Fresno State (+3) Over Oregon State. (3:30p.m, Saturday, September 6th)
Fresno comes into this game 1-1 on the year after snagging a very strong win over Georgia Southern in their most recent matchup Saturday. Fresno is one of very few teams who are entering their 3rd game of the season. Fresno’s 1st game of the season was a complete embarrassment—a loss to Kansas, which resulted in a 31-7 defeat. The entire CFB following is now low on Fresno, as they were supposed to be much more competitive than shown. We find this as a positive, and this brings tremendous value and opportunity to launch a strong position. Fresno has only returned 2 starters from last season across both the offensive and defensive sides. This is now their 3rd matchup playing together, and we expect a massive boost here Saturday. Oregon State is a bit of a mess right now. They still have not defined their starters, as players are still working their way in and out of the field. Oregon State also had some massive struggles offensively against California, with QB Maalik Murphy going 21/33 with 0 TDs and 1 interception. We believe Fresno comes in and wins this game outright. We are going to take the points here to subside the field goal and avoid getting beat on a hook play.
Take #349 Fresno State (+3) Over Oregon State.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
5 Unit – Take #343 Kansas (+6.5) over Missouri (-110) (3:30p.m, Saturday, September 6th)Kansas looks like a solid bet to cover the +6.5 spread against Missouri this weekend. They’ve started the season strong, with Jalon Daniels back healthy and playing at a high level, and Alabama transfer Emmanuel Henderson Jr. quickly emerging as a go-to weapon in the passing game. The offense has shown real balance so far, which makes them hard to game-plan against. On the other hand, Missouri enters this game with some uncertainty, especially at quarterback due to an injury that has disrupted their rotation, and on special teams due to the loss of their starting kicker for the season. While Missouri has the edge in depth and home-field advantage, Kansas has quietly become one of the most reliable teams against the spread, covering in ten straight games, including six on the road. They can stay in this game, and if Missouri's offense or special teams falter, Kansas can win or keep it within a score.
Take #343 Kansas (+6.5) over Missouri (-110)
Nick Menken
2 Unit – Take #330 Iowa State (-3.5) over Iowa (-110) (12:00p.m, Saturday, September 6th)
Iowa State looks like a solid pick to cover at home against Iowa on Saturday. The Cyclones are off to a strong start with back-to-back wins, including a blowout over South Dakota and a tough, gritty win against Kansas State. Quarterback Rocco Becht has been efficient, throwing for over 450 yards and five touchdowns through two games, and the offense has shown good balance between the run and the pass. Iowa’s defense is always going to be competitive, but the offense still lacks consistency. They relied heavily on the run in their opener against Albany, with Xavier Williams rushing for over 300 yards, but the passing game hasn’t offered much. That one-dimensional approach could be exposed by an Iowa State defense that plays fast and physical. Playing in Ames gives the Cyclones an added edge, and their offensive momentum gives them more ways to control the game. Iowa State has the offensive edge, home-field boost, and early-season confidence to not only cover but potentially win by more than one possession.
Take #330 Iowa State (-3.5) over Iowa (-110)
Nick Menken
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