NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Utah State Aggies Week 12
The mid-major report for Week 12 is ready to go. Utah State continues to sit at No. 14 in the Associated Press Top 25 Poll. This team continues to get more publicity by the week. It's great to have been able to follow them to this point, and I'm looking forward to seeing how they can finish off this magical season.
I chose to follow the Utah State football program this year because of their potential for a breakout season. The Aggies haven't had a winning season since 2014. They were 6-7 a year ago and lost a bowl game to New Mexico State. Utah State had lost their last eight games decided by a touchdown or less coming into the season. They were on the cusp of breaking out last year but couldn't get over the hump. I'll be following Utah State beat writers, following players and coaches on Twitter, and reading the press conference transcripts to find information on the Aggies. The goal is for me to become an expert on this Utah State Aggies team.
How have the selections on the mid-major betting report done overall? Coming into this season, the overall record is 48 wins and 33 losses with a gain of $2,020. Last year, I followed the Marshall Thundering Herd as they tried to recover from a bad season in 2016. Marshall did have a nice bounce-back season, and the selections last year went 8-5 and we finished up $520. It was nice to have another strong season.
There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick , which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
Utah State's offense rolled up a ridiculous 804 yards of offense last week in a blowout win over San Jose State. The Aggies threw for 510 yards, averaging 10.2 yards per pass attempt. Utah State also ran for 294 yards. They averaged 7.4 yards per carry. Eight different Utah State players had carries in this game.
Utah State's defense held San Jose State to 2.8 yards per carry. San Jose State did throw for 344 yards, but they picked up quite a few of those yards with the game already decided. The most impressive statistic from the defense was nine tackles for a loss. David Woodward continued to be a beast in the middle of this defense, and he had three tackles for a loss by himself.
The Aggies were up 59-17 at the end of the third quarter, and they coasted to a 62-24 win over San Jose State. San Jose State turned the ball over three times. Utah State didn't turn it over at all. This was a great performance on the road for the Aggies.
Notes of Interest
-Jason Turner, Utah State beat writer for the The Herald Journal, wrote about this Utah State team continuing its great run. Turner pointed out that Utah State was able to pull their starters in the middle of the third period and still gain 804 yards of total offense. That beat the school record they set recently in a win over New Mexico. Utah State had 704 yards of offense in that one. This offense is firing on all cylinders right now. Dax Raymond, tight end for Utah State, spoke about Jordan Love's demeanor and how much it helps the team. Raymond said, "The calmness you see when he's in the pocket, that's how he is 24/7." He also said Love is the first to rally the troops when they need a score, but he's never negative when something goes wrong. That kind of presence leading the team is a huge reason for Utah State's offensive success.
-Utah State broke a school record for most points scored in a season with their win over San Jose State. The Aggies have scored 513 points, which is 59 more than the 2012 team. They also matched a school record for most consecutive wins at nine. That record has stood since 1960, but this team will break it if they win at Colorado State this weekend.
-Utah State finally made their debut in the College Football Playoff Rankings at number 23 this week. I still think they are underrated in those rankings.
-Utah State is 10th in the nation in yards per play this year at 6.96. Their opponent for this weekend, Colorado State, ranks 124th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 7.00. Utah State is +17 in sack margin this year, while Colorado State is -10. Utah State has allowed only eight sacks all year, and the offensive line deserves a lot of credit.
-Utah State is 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games.
-Utah State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
-Colorado State is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
-The 'over' is 24-8 in Utah State's last 32 conference games.
Utah State at Colorado State College Football Odds
Utah State opened as a 26-point road favorite in this game. The line was quickly bet up. Utah State is now favored by 28 at most books , but there are still a couple books sitting at -27.5. The posted total opened at 66, but it has been bet up to 68 across the board.
Utah State at Colorado State College Football Picks
The Utah State Aggies have proven they are a tremendous team. Colorado State has been embarrassed multiple times this year, and that was against much worse teams than Utah State. The Aggies have won three of their last four games by at least 29 points. I expect another big win from them here. Colorado State has beaten Utah State each of the last two years. Utah State has plenty of motivation for this one. Expect another big number from the Aggies offense, and I'll take Utah State -27.5 for two units in this contest.
Pick #365- Utah State -27.5 (2 units)
Season Results- 8 Wins 0 Losses (+$1,130)
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