NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Utah State Aggies Week 8
Week 8 of the mid-major betting report is ready to go. Utah State continues to take care of business. The Aggies aren't quite in the Top 25 yet, but they continue to receive quite a few votes. Let's see if they can get over the top and get a mid-major team into the Top 25.
I chose to follow the Utah State football program this year. The Aggies haven't had a winning season since 2014. They were 6-7 a year ago and lost a bowl game to New Mexico State. Utah State had lost their last eight games decided by a touchdown or less coming into the season. They were on the cusp of breaking out last year but couldn't get over the hump. I'll be following Utah State beat writers, following players and coaches on Twitter, and reading the press conference transcripts to find information on the Aggies. I'll be looking to make myself an expert on this Utah State football team.
How have the selections on the mid-major betting report done overall? The overall record is 48 wins and 33 losses with a gain of $2,020. Last year, I followed the Marshall Thundering Herd as they tried to recover from a bad season in 2016. Marshall did have a nice bounce-back season, and the selections last year went 8-5 and we finished up $520. It was nice to have another strong season.
There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick , which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
Utah State's offense rolled up 598 yards of offense in a 59-28 win over UNLV last weekend. The Aggies led 42-7 at halftime and coasted home the rest of the way. While their defensive numbers don't look great, UNLV put up almost all of their offensive production once the game was already decided. David Woodward continues to be a great leader for this defense, and he racked up 12 tackles last Saturday. Woodward had 3 sacks, and as a team Utah State piled up 7 sacks in this contest.
Utah State's offense was balanced once again as they have been all season. Jordan Love has been fantastic this year, and he was a star on Saturday. Love threw for a whopping 322 yards on only 23 passing attempts. That's some tremendous efficiency in the passing game. Jalen Greene had five receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown. Greene has been a big producer for Utah State since transferring in from USC as a graduate transfer.
The Utah State -26 selection from last week's article was a winner.
Notes of Interest
-Jason Turner, Utah State beat writer for the The Herald Journal, wrote about Utah State's ability to turn athletic football players into great linebackers. They have done that many times in recent years with guys like Nick Vigil and Tyler Fackrell. Turner pointed out that three of Utah State's top four linebackers didn't play at linebacker in high school. Woodward, who excelled in high school as a running back and defensive back, leads the Mountain West in tackles per game. Tipa Galeai is the best pass rusher in the Mountain West, and his athleticism has shown in many key moments this season. Utah State defensive coordinator Keith Patterson has made it clear that the team's athletic linebackers make it possible for them to continue to employ the game plan. Patterson said, "Every game plan is the same. We sound like a broken record, but it is all about stopping the run. If we can make people one-dimensional, we have enough coverage and pressure where we can make it very difficult on people."
-Love was named the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week this weekend for the third time already this season.
-Utah State will travel to Wyoming to take on the Cowboys in Laramie on Saturday afternoon. Wyoming has a great home-field advantage, but they have been disappointing this year. The Cowboys offense has been terrible. Wyoming is 124th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Cowboys are converting only 29 percent of their third-down conversion attempts.
-Utah State lost a heartbreaker to Wyoming at home last year. The Cowboys won that one 28-23. Utah State had five turnovers in that contest, while Wyoming had only one. That was the difference.
-Utah State is 6-0 against the spread in their last six games overall.
-The Aggies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record.
-Wyoming is 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games.
-The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.
-The 'under' is 16-5-1 in Wyoming's last 22 games overall.
Utah State at Wyoming College Football Odds
The lines are all over the place for this contest. It's rare to see as many different numbers on one game as there for this contest. Utah State opened as a 14.5-point favorite here. The most common number now Is Utah State -15 , but there are spots as low as Utah State -14 and others as high as Utah State -15.5. The posted total opened at 55 but has been quickly bet down across the board. The highest total available now is 52, but there are some books as low as 51.
Utah State at Wyoming College Football Picks
This is normally a very tricky game. Utah State is the much better team, but Craig Bohl and the Wyoming Cowboys have to be respected because of their strong defense. Wyoming ranks in the Top 40 in the country in run defense, and they are in the Top 50 in overall defense.
Utah State's defense is 11th in yards per play allowed. I don't see Wyoming doing much scoring at all in this one. Wyoming will look to try to slow the game down and run the ball a lot, but Utah State is very strong against the run.
I agree with the early week line move on the under here. I'll take the under for two units.
Pick #359 Utah State/Wyoming under 52 (2 units)
Season Results- 5 Wins 0 Losses (+$630)
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