Free NCAA Football Mid-Major Week 13 Pick from Expert Handicapper
I have had some pretty good success betting the Mid-American Conference this season as part of my free Mid-Major picks for Doc's Sports. Heading into the final weekend of games in the college football regular season, I am going back to the MAC for my final play of the year.
All year long I have been touting the fact that the best value betting college football can often be found in matchups in the five conferences that are known as the Mid Majors in Division IA (FBS). The Buffalo Bulls are the top team in the MAC's East Division, and I think they have one more big win in them ahead of next Saturday's conference championship.
NCAAF Week 13 Mid-Major Top 25 Betting Overview
The biggest story in the Mid Majors this season has been the AAC's Central Florida Knights' ongoing straight-up winning streak. After going a perfect 13-0 in 2017, including a bowl win against Auburn, the Knights' impressive 38-13 victory against then-No. 24 Cincinnati raised this year's SU record to 10-0.
UCF is 7-3 against the spread heading into Friday's matchup against South Florida as a 14-point road favorite. For their efforts, the Knights have final cracked the top 10 of the College Football Playoff rankings at No. 9
The Mountain West is also well represented in the CFP rankings with the 10-1 Utah State Aggies set at No. 21 followed by the 9-2 Boise State Broncos at No. 23. These two MWC powers will battle it out on Saturday night for the Mountain Division title. Boise State is set as a 2.5-point home favorite , with the total set at 54 points.
NCAAF Mid-Major Free Pick of the Week
Buffalo will wrap up its season on Friday afternoon as a 14.5-point road favorite against the Bowling Green Falcons. Game time on ESPNU is set for 12 p.m., and the betting line for the total is 60.5 points.
The Bulls have gone 6-1 in conference play as part of a SU record of 9-2. However, their only loss in the MAC was a bad one with last Saturday's 52-17 beatdown at the hands of Ohio as slight 2.5-point road underdogs. I am confident that this loss will serve as a wake-up call for a team that has serious aspirations of winning the MAC this season. This was the first time that Buffalo failed to cover in its last six games as part of an overall record of 7-3 ATS.
Last week's collapse aside, the Bulls have gotten a strong effort from Tyree Jackson throwing the ball and from Jaret Patterson running it. Buffalo has established some excellent balance between the two with an average of 225.6 passing yards a game complementing the 188.4 yards a game it is averaging on the ground. This has added up to a scoring average of 34.5 points per game.
Bowling Green has just two SU wins in conference play as part of an overall record of 3-8. The Falcons have been able to cover in their last two games with SU victories against Central Michigan and Akron as road underdogs, but they have also lost their last three home games as part of 1-4 record at home this season both SU and ATS.
One of the issues for Bowling Green in Friday's matchup will be keeping pace on the scoreboard. The Falcons have failed to score more than 24 points, win or lose, in five of their last eight contests with a scoring average of 25.3 points on the year. The bigger issue against the Bulls lies on the other side of the ball with a defense that is giving up 39.6 PPG.
I an counting on Buffalo taking out its frustrations from last Saturday's no-show with a victory on Friday night that easily covers the 14.5-point spread.
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