NCAA Hoops Betting: Under the Radar
by Christopher G. Shepard  - 2/18/2010


There is nothing better in college hoops than investing in  an under-the-radar team that you have been locked onto when that team upsets a  national power; this week Mizzou beat No. 12 Texas, 82-77, and Rutgers upset  No. 8 Georgetown, 71-68. First you have to find theses teams that are flying  under the radar. This week here are three teams that I think will bring  positive income for NCAA hoops bettors. 
  
    UNLV (19-6 SU, 15-8 ATS, +620) The Runnin’ Rebels have been a tale of two  seasons. They had a fabulous December when they went 6-2 and a stellar January  when the Rebels went 5-2. However, a woeful February campaign so far where they  have notched a 2-3 ATS and SU record has stalled their NCAA Tournament hopes.  All the hard work from earlier this season could come undone if they don’t  finish February strong. 
  
  Thanks to three straight conference losses Coach Lon Kruger’s team has fallen to 7-5 and fourth place in the  Mountain West behind New Mexico, BYU and San Diego State. The good news for  UNLV is that they have a chance to run the table and go 4-0 in their final four  games. Three of their last four games will be at Thomas & Mack Center while  their lone road contest will be at Air Force. The Falcons are 1-10 in  conference play and should help the Running Rebels rise in the conference  standings. 
  
  The problem with the Rebels current losing streak is that is has taken them  from punching their tickets to the Big Dance in March to putting them squarely  on the bubble. This is exactly why I like backing UNLV for the rest of the  season. Three straight ATS and SU losses should produce a good number for  Saturday’s home game as well as their remaining three games. If the Rebels run  the table (not a huge IF) and go deep into the MWC tournament they can still  make the NCAA’s. I think that will be enough motivation for UNLV to win and  cover their remaining games.   
  
  College of Charleston  (17-9 SU, 13-7-1 ATS, +530) The Cougars are the Southern Conference’s South  Division leader but they are another team I have picked this week that is mired  in a three-game ATS losing streak. If you backed the Cougars in their last  three games you’d be disappointed, but if you are looking to hop on the Cougars  now might be a good time. The last game the Cougars covered was at home on Feb.  6 against Samford as 8.5-point favorites. The Cougars close out their season  with three straight road games in seven days against George Mason, Wofford and  Furman.  While they beat both Wofford and  Furman at home earlier this year, this is the only game against George Mason. 
  
  In their last two games Bobby Cremins’ team play could be characterized as  sloppy. The Cougars were off a devastating home loss to cross-town rival  Citadel 65-72 as seven-point ‘Chalk.’ This marked the first home loss of the  year; the Cougars were 10-0 until that game. So it was sort of expected that  the Cougars would make Southern whipping boy Elon pay for the loss. The Cougars  won, 80-77, and Donavan Moore dropped 29 points on Elon, but the three-point  margin of victory was not enough to cover the 11.5 points. Simply put, the  Cougars need to sharpen up their play if they want to contend come conference  tournament time. Last night the Cougars beat Appalachian State by a point,  73-72, but again failed to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. 
  
  The problem with CoC is -- and you want to keep an eye on this -- that the  Cougars live and die on their three-point shooting. This week the big game for  CoC is not George Mason but Wofford. The Cougars need to beat Wofford to win  the South Division. Something tells me the Cougars will rise to the occasion in  their next three games.    
  
    Princeton (15-6 SU, 11-4 ATS, +660) With the Tigers’ most recent win at  Pennsylvania Coach Sydney Johnson has Princeton on a roll. The Tigers have  covered the spread in nine of their last 10 listed games. Furthermore,  trend-followers should not ignore the fact that the ‘under’ has cashed in  Princeton’s last seven games with a listed total. This has catapulted Princeton  up to second place in the Ivy League standings at 6-1. The Tigers are one game  in the win column behind Ivy League super-power Cornell. Princeton will try to  avenge last week’s loss to Cornell on Feb. 26 at Ithaca, but before that  Princeton will host Yale and Brown this weekend.
  
  The big difference in Princeton this year over the sub-par performances of  recent years is that the Tigers finally found a player who has some offensive  flash. Sophomore guard Douglas Davis had a break-out performance last week  against Cornell. Davis scored 18 of Princeton’s final 22 points and finished  the game with 20 points. Through 21 games Davis is now averaging 13.9 points  per game and when the Tigers started going to him Cornell didn’t have an answer  for him. This weekend Yale (also +530 on the season) looks like they are going  to give the Tigers all they can handle. Yale boasts one of the best guards in  the country in Alex Zampier. The Tigers beat Yale earlier this year so Yale  will look for revenge.  I expect the  Tigers to go at the very least 1-1 SU and ATS this weekend, but circle that  Cornell game next weekend.
  
  Last Week
Last week I looked at Drake, Valparaiso, and South Florida  as my under-the-radar teams of the week. South Florida has earned +820 units on  the season, which is good enough for the No.3 ATS in the nation. The Bulls  split their two contests last week, going 1-1 SU and ATS. South Florida lost at  Marquette, 63-52, missing covering as nine-point road dogs. The Bulls rebounded  at home beating Cincinnati 65-57; covering the three-point line and bringing  their season total to +620. The Crusaders won and covered their lone meeting at  Youngstown State, 77-75. Meanwhile, my game of the year crashed and burned as  Drake got down early and never made up the deficit at Indiana State and pushed  their losing streak to four games until the Bulldogs beat Southern Illinois at  home, 72-79, as a ‘pick‘em’. This kept the Crusaders in positive territory at  +520 on the season.
  
  
  
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