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Hot and Cold College Basketball Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 12/31/2025

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/31/2025

College basketball hot and cold ats and over under Bennett Stirtz Iowa Hawkeyes

With the New Year upon us, and conference play set to start soon, now is a good time to check out the trends around the nation. While a ton of teams are dominating ATS or heavily frequent the north or south side of the game total, let’s identify one mid-major team and one power conference squad and how well (or not) they have been performing relative to filling our pockets.

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Hot

ATS

Hofstra Pride 11-1

The Hofstra Pride leads all college basketball in covers. They have covered 11 of their 12 recognized contests and have found themselves riding a five-game winning streak and at a 10-4 record. While their schedule is significantly easier than most, the Pride did take down Pittsburgh and Syracuse on the road while coming up just short on the road against Iona, UCF, and Temple. Cruz Davis is their top scoring threat, as he is averaging 21.3 PPG and is shooting 43.8% from beyond the arc. Hofstra has a deep roster with eight players averaging double-digit MPG with eight players also averaging at least 5.1 PPG. They play great defense, limiting opponents to just 66.6 PPG, and their biggest covering weapon is how they play around the perimeter. They are shooting 37.2% from beyond the arc as a team and are limiting their opponents to just 31.4%. Expect Hofstra to be a real threat to win the CAA and continue to be an automatic cover machine.

Iowa Hawkeyes 10-3

Now for our power conference representative, the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes lead all power conferences in covers, covering 10 of their 13 games. Iowa has lost their only two games against ranked opponents, but they have an average margin of victory of 27.1 points against everyone else. The new look Hawkeyes are second in the Big 10 in PPG differential, +21.1, behind only Michigan. They are allowing just 60.1 PPG and limiting opponents to a mere 30.8% from beyond the arc. This is an incredibly deep roster that uses nearly everyone, every game. They have 10 players averaging more than 10 MPG, nine players averaging 5.0 PPG or more, and eight players averaging more than two RPG. They have a solid three-point trio in Bennett Stirtz, Tavion Banks, and Alvaro Folgueiras, who are all averaging over 41% from deep. Iowa is a defense first squad that is efficient on the offensive side of the floor and can be lethal from deep. Watch out for this team in March.

Cold

Texas Southern Tigers 1-8

The Texas Southern Tigers have been the worst covers team in the nation. They have covered just one of their nine recognized games, a three-point overtime loss to Samford. The Tigers lost their first five games to start the season before beating the College of Biblical Studies and then went on to lose their next four before beating Huston-Tillotson. They play some of the worst defense in basketball, allowing 85 PPG. They shoot just 28.6% from beyond the arc, and they are shooting just 68.3% from the charity stripe. This is not a competitive team, be sure to fade them, even in conference play.

Marquette Golden Eagles 3-11

The power conference representative, for teams to fade, are the Marquette Golden Eagles. They have covered just three of their 14 games, while they are just 5-9 overall. The team’s best win was a 14-point victory over Central Michigan. This Golden Eagles team needed overtime to beat Valpraiso, and they are currently on a five-game losing streak. Not only have they lost their last five, but they have also dropped their first three games in conference play. The Golden Eagles are missing their normal offensive weapons. Marquette is shooting just 40.8% from the floor and 30.4% from deep. They are the only team in Big East to have a negative point differential. Their next four games on the schedule are going to be tough, continue to fade this squad.

Total

Over

Denver Pioneers 12-0

The Pioneers are the only team in the nation to hit the over in every single game. They are averaging 84.1 PPG, shooting 49.1% from the floor, and 38.6% from deep. Not only are they dominating on the offensive side of the floor, but they are also playing awful defense. Their 85.3 PPG allowed is the worst in the Summit League. The Pioneers’ opponents are shooting over 50% from the floor, and over 40% from deep. With four other conference opponents averaging over 77 PPG on offense, and another four allowing over 77 PPG on defense, expect a lot of overs for Denver throughout the remainder of the season.

Texas A&M Aggies 10-3

The Aggies have the most overs of power conference teams this season with 10. They have scored more than 100 points in five games this season, including their last three contests. They have five players averaging more than 10 PPG, and their 96.2 PPG are second in the conference and fourth in the nation. The Aggies are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the conference, averaging over 39.7%, though this number may decline when conference play gets underway. Another factor for high-scoring games is their lackluster defense. They are allowing 77.2 PPG on defense despite having a very easy nonconference schedule. Continue to back Aggie overs, even with the tougher schedule on deck.

Under

UT Arlington Mavericks 1-10

The Mavericks have the most under performances in college basketball with 10 of their 11 recognized games falling on the south side of the game total. The Mavericks are averaging just 71.9 PPG, with little existence beyond the arc. Their defense is one of the most dominant units in the nation. They have allowed more than 70 points in just four of their games this season and are allowing an average of 64.6 PPG. The most impressive number for the Mavericks is the fact that they are allowing just 24.5% shooting from three, which is tied for the best mark in all of college basketball. A mediocre offense with no three-point capabilities, paired with a suffocating defense that limits opponents’ impact from beyond the arc is a great recipe for low-scoring games.

Minnesota Golden Gophers 3-10

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have also experienced their fair share of low-scoring games. Cade Tyson is an offensive superstar, averaging 21.9 PPG, while shooting 40.6% from deep, but he is about the extent of the Golden Gophers offense. As a team, they are averaging just 72.7 PPG, which is the second lowest total in the Big 10. On top of their low-scoring offense, they rank second in the conference in points allowed (64.8 PPG). This is another great option to back if you like low-scoring games.

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