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2025 Iowa State Cyclones Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/2/2025

Iowa State Cyclones basketball predictions Milan Momcilovic

Iowa State quickly emerged as one of the best teams in college basketball last season. They did lose to #4 Auburn by just two points, but they opened the season winning 15 of their first 16 games. Though they lost to the Tigers, they picked up big wins against #5 Marquette, #25 Baylor, and #9 Kansas. After battling through the conference schedule, the Cyclones finished the regular season with a 23-8 record while posting a 13-7 record in Big 12 play. Overall, they went 4-5 against ranked opponent’s last season. The Cyclones secured a favorable starting position in the conference tournament, and they dominated their opening game as they knocked out Cincinnati by 20 points. Unfortunately, thanks to a streaking BYU team, they were eliminated in the quarterfinals by the Cougars. Despite their early exit in the Big 12 tournament, the Cyclones had done enough to claim a 3-Seed in March Madness. They completely destroyed their first-round opponent, 14-Seed Lipscomb, beating them by 27 points. Unfortunately, their season would end earlier than expected as they were upset by 6-Seed Ole Miss, who beat the Cyclones by 13 points in the Round of 32.

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The Cyclones were one of the top scoring teams in the country. They averaged 80.3 PPG, and they were incredibly efficient in doing so as they shot 48.3% as a team. Iowa State was also lethal from beyond the arc as they shot nearly 36% from deep. They ranked fourth in the conference in defense as they limited opponents to just 68.3 PPG while holding them to a lowly 42% FG%. The Cyclones finished third in the conference with a +12 PPG differential, third with a +6.2% FG%, and third with a +1.8 SPG mark. Iowa State finished the season with five different players averaging double digit PPG. Curtis Jones led his squad with 17.4 PPG while also shooting 37.4% from three while averaging 4.2 RPG. He was followed by Keshon Gilbert, who averaged 13.4 PPG and a team best 4.1 APG. Joshua Jefferson averaged 13 PPG while recording a team best 7.4 RPG. Milan Momcilovic averaged 11.5 PPG, and he joined Jones as the best two Cyclones from the charity stripe. Tamin Lipsey was the fifth Cyclones player to average double digits as he finished the season with 10.6 PPG while finishing second on the team with 2.0 SPG.

Key Additions/Losses

Iowa State was the deepest team in the country last season and are perhaps the only team that is built to lose their top two scorers and still be considered one of the best in the country. Jones has gone to the NBA and joined the Denver Nuggets roster, and Gilbert has also gone to the professional ranks. Dishon Jackson, who averaged 8.5 PPG and 5.1 RPG for the Cyclones last season, has transferred to Pittsburgh to join the Panthers squad. The Cyclones also lost some depth pieces in Nojus Indrusaitis who transferred to Pittsburgh, Demarion Watson who transferred to North Texas, and JT Rock who transferred to New Mexico.

Despite the lengthy list of subtractions, Iowa State has a core of returning production who will be joined by four freshmen joining the college ranks and some transfer players. The freshmen recruiting class is headlined by Jamarion Batemon who is a Top 50 prospect in the class. He is joined by shooting guard Killyan Toure, small forward Xzavion Mitchell, and power forward Dominykas Pleta. As for the transfers, Dominick Nelson is the biggest name to remember as he averaged 14.4 PPG at Utah Valley. Mason Williams is heading to Ames after averaging 13.9 PPG with Eastern Washington last season. The class of incomers is rounded out by Blake Buchanan who is coming over from Virginia, and Eric Mulder who is coming over from Purdue Fort Wayne.

X-Factors

The Big Games- Iowa State struggled in their nine games against AP Top 25 teams, posting a 4-5 record. They will once again start the season with nine ranked opponents including early season matchups against two ranked Big East teams in St. Johns and Creighton and a road trip to take on the number one team in the country in Purdue. Winning one of those can go a long way in boosting a resume that is surely to be beat-up by the Big 12 conference schedule. Only three of their nine games against ranked opponents are at home, so the Cyclones will need to find a way to win on the road if they want to end up in March Madness again this season.

Notable Games

Home - #19 Kansas, #2 Houston, #10 Texas Tech

Away/Neutral - #5 St. John’s, #23 Creighton, @ #1 Purdue, @ #19 Kansas, @ #8 BYU, @ #13 Arizona

Key Odds/Rankings:

NCAA Champion: +3500

Conference Winner: +750

AP Top 25- 16th

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 18th

2025 Iowa State Cyclones Predictions

There is a lot of experience on this roster. The incoming class as a whole may not be enough to totally fill the shoes of Gilbert and Jones, but there is still enough production in place to keep the Cyclones relevant. They have depth which can be important later on in the season. Iowa State doesn’t have the roster in place to compete with BYU, Arizona, or Houston in the Big 12 over the length of the season, but they can be a formidable opponent when it comes to the tournaments thanks to the depth and big game experience. Don’t sleep on them come tournament time but expect this season to look a little different for Iowa State.

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