College Basketball Betting Advice for Overrated and Underrated Teams 12/31/2025

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/31/2025

College basketball betting advice for overrated and underrated teams Yaxel Lendeborg Michigan Wolverines

With conference play near full swing and all eyes turned towards what could be in March, we need to eliminate some overrated squads from our minds and focus on teams that have a legitimate chance of making some noise as we get later in the season. Michigan, Arizona, Vanderbilt, and Nebraska have all been surprises this season, but there are also teams like Louisville, Iowa, Utah State, and Saint Louis who are playing at a high level, but are not getting the same media attention. With this article, I will shine the light on some teams who are worthy and steal the spotlight on some teams who are not so deserving.

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Pleasant Surprises

Michigan Wolverines 12-0

The Michigan Wolverines started the season as unranked team who was projected to fall somewhere in the top half of the Big 10 standings. They took those projections and stormed their way to becoming the top team in college basketball. Michigan has yet to lose a game this season and they have been dominating the opposition. They did struggle against Wake Forest and TCU to start the year, but since their November 14th game against the Horned Frogs they have won by an average of 35 points. That streak includes a 30-point win over #21 Auburn, a 40-point win over #12 Gonzaga, 41-point win to open up conference play against Rutgers, and an 18-point victory over Maryland on the road.

They are averaging 96.8 PPG, the third best mark in the country, while their defense is allowing less than 67 PPG. The Wolverines are the only team in college basketball with a +30-point differential this year, and they also lead the country with a +18.9% FG% differential. They have five players averaging more than 10 PPG, with Yaxel Lendeborg averaging a team best 15.7 PPG. The Big 10 is loaded with other surprise teams like Iowa, Nebraska, and USC joining the likes of Purdue, Michigan State, and UCLA, but the Wolverines should dominate this conference. They are legit.

Iowa Hawkeyes 10-2

Our second pleasant surprise this season also comes from the Big 10. Last season, and for a few seasons prior, the Iowa Hawkeyes were known for their quick tempo offense that usually ranked near the top of the country in scoring, and their goal was to outshoot their opponents. Now, under the new regime, they are a defense first squad that slows the game down and focuses on efficient offense. They have some resume building nonconference wins against Xavier, Ole Miss, and back-to-back blowouts of Western Michigan (40 points) and Bucknell (55 points). They have one of the best players in the country in Bennett Stirtz who is averaging 17.1 PPG, while shooting over 81% from the charity stripe, and 41.4% from deep. Stirtz has guys like Tavion Banks (9.5 PPG, 45.5% 3P%), Alvaro Folgueiras (9.5 PPG, 45.9% 3P%), and Cam Manyawu (8.8 PPG) to work with, allowing the Hawkeyes to spread out the floor and run their efficient offense.

They did lose to both of their ranked opponents in Iowa State and Michigan State, but those losses came by a combined 23 points and were both on the road. With a loaded conference, Iowa currently has seven more chances to pick up some big wins against ranked opponents, and it is favorable for the Hawkeyes that five of those games are at home. They may not look as dominating as other teams ranked in the AP Poll, but this is a team that is designed to make some noise when it matters later in the season.

Vanderbilt Commodores 12-0

The Vanderbilt Commodores have stormed out to a 12-0 start to their season, sweeping their nonconference schedule. They have eclipsed 100 points in four of their games this season, but their wins are not all that impressive. They have an overtime road win against Memphis, and a 25-point victory against Saint Mary’s which tops their resume, though Vanderbilt struggled against the likes of Central Arkansas and Western Kentucky. They do have a solid scoring duo in Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner who are averaging 17.1 and 16 PPG respectively, and if those numbers aren’t impressive enough, Tyler Nickel is also averaging 14.8 PPG and shooting nearly 50% from beyond the arc.

The Commodores rank second in the SEC with a +23.5 PPG-differential, while ranking fourth in PPG (94.2), third in FG% (51.2%), third in 3P% (37.6%), third in FT% (76.6%), and second in APG (19.9). On defense, they have been just as dominant, allowing just 70.7 PPG and keeping opponents to a lowly 28.2% 3P%. Vanderbilt is about to be tested in conference play, but their schedule is somewhat favorable when comparing the gauntlet of the SEC. Expect the Commodores to gain a solid seed in both the conference and national tournaments later this year.

Overrated Squads

St. Johns Red Storm 8-4

Unfortunately for the Red Storm, this season hasn’t started out like they would have hoped it would. They dropped a tough game against Alabama for their second game of the year, but they have also since lost to Iowa State, Auburn, and Kentucky. While those are solid losses, they have not picked up any impressive wins. Their lone Quad One win came against Baylor on a neutral site. However, to no fault of their own, the Big East is also considerably weaker this season which causes issues if St. John’s can’t find a way to win the big games. As of now, they have just two ranked matchups remaining on their schedule, a home and away, against #4 UConn. They are still a top team in the country, but they are not the dominating team we expected to make a deep run last year. Stay away until they can prove they can win the big game.

Saint Louis Billikens 12-1

Our final team on the overrated list are the Saint Louis Billikens. Their 12-1 record is deceiving. They have no Quad One wins, and have already picked up a Quad Two loss, one that could hold them back as the season unfolds. They have five players averaging double-digit points, and a squad average of 94.5 PPG. However, their best win was against Central Michigan, and they may not have a chance to win a better game. Obviously, if they win their conference tournament then they will have an automatic bid to the big dance, but this is certainly not a team that can put someone on upset alert as they will be untested all season. Do not be deceived by the favorable record.

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Start:	December 31, 2025 @ 11:59 PM
Expert:	Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
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College Basketball Betting Advice for Overrated and Underrated Teams 12/31/2025

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