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2025 Tennessee Volunteers Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/2/2025

Tennessee Volunteers basketball predictions Felix Okpara

The Tennessee Volunteers had an elite start to the season in 2024 as they won their first 14 contests, including wins over #13 Baylor, #23 Arkansas, Virginia, and a true road game against Illinois. Their momentum and win streak came to a screeching halt when they were upended by #8 Florida, as the Gators won by 30 points, holding the Volunteers to just 43 points. They picked up some key conference wins and fought their way through the gauntlet SEC schedule. Tennessee would finish the regular season with a 25-6 record while going 12-6 in what was the toughest conference in the country last season. They won the first two games of the conference tournament, as they dominated Texas before sneaking past Auburn with a five-point victory setting up a rematch with Florida in the conference championship game. Florida would win the rubber match in the season series against Tennessee, as the Volunteers fell 86-77. After falling just short in the SEC Championship Game, they secured a 2-Seed in the Big Dance. They dominated their way to an Elite Eight appearance, taking down 15-Seed Wofford, 7-Seed UCLA, and 3-Seed Kentucky. Unfortunately, their offense had no answers for the 1-Seed Houston Cougars, and Tennessee’s season would end with a 19-point defeat in the Elite Eight.

Tennessee was all about defense last season. They had some offensive weapons, but they managed just 74 PPG, which ranked 14th in the SEC. They shot 45.2% as a team while shooting 33.8% from beyond the arc. They led the conference in defense, as they held opponents to just 63.1 PPG while their suffocating perimeter defense limited the opposition to average a low 28.7% from three. Despite their below average scoring, they finished third in the SEC with a +10.9 PPG differential, second with a +6.6% FG% differential, second with a +5.1 APG differential, and fourth with a +4.7 RPG differential. Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler were the two biggest scoring threats for Tennessee. Lanier led the team with 18 PPG while shooting just below 40% from beyond the arc. Zeigler led the team with 7.4 APG and with an 81.4% FT%. Jordan Gainey also averaged double digits as he recorded 11.6 PPG while also shooting over 81% from the charity stripe.

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Key Additions/Losses

There is a lot missing this year for Tennessee after the losses during the offseason. Lanier has moved on to the NBA and has been suiting up for the Detroit Pistons. Zeigler, Gainey, and Igor Milicic Jr. all ran out of eligibility. To make matters worse, Darlinstone Dubar has entered the transfer portal and is not returning to the Volunteers.

As for the additions, Tennessee is bringing in a deep class of recruits. They signed Nate Ament, who is a five-star power forward out of Virginia and is ranked as the fourth best prospect in the class. In addition to Ament, the Volunteers signed four-stars Amari Evans, DeWayne Brown II, and Clarence Massamba, as well as three-star guard Troy Henderson. They also brought in three transfers, the most notable being Ja’Kobi Gillespie who is coming in from Maryland. Gillespie averaged 14.7 PPG, 4.8 APG, and shot over 40% from deep for the Terps. Amaree Abram is returning to the SEC as the former Ole Miss Rebel is now joining his fourth team in as many years after averaging 12.3 PPG for Louisiana Tech last season. Rounding out the incoming class is Jaylen Carey who averaged 8.0 PPG for Vanderbilt last season.

X-Factors

The Cupcakes- The nonconference schedule is not easy for Tennessee as they are set to take on Houston, Illinois, and Louisville who are all Top 25 teams to start the year. After the nonconference schedule ends, the SEC gauntlet begins. The cupcakes are going to be vitally important for this team to find their identity. Tennessee is arguably missing four of its best five players from a year ago and it is inevitable that this new squad has some road bumps as they try and gel in gameplay. They need not overlook these games and find the pace and style that works for them. If the choppiness doesn’t work itself out during these early season cupcakes, it may be a long season ahead for the Volunteers.

Notable Games

Home - #11 Louisville, #9 Kentucky, #20 Auburn, #15 Alabama

Away/Neutral - #2 Houston, #17 Illinois, @ #14 Arkansas, @  #3 Florida, @ #15 Alabama, @ #9 Kentucky

Key Odds/Rankings:

NCAA Champion: +3000

Conference Winner: +900

AP Top 25- 18th

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 12th

2025 Tennessee Volunteers Predictions

When a team loses as much as the Volunteers did, it is hard to make a prediction with any confidence. Adding Ament and Gillespie can be the dynamic duo that fills the shoes of Lanier and Zeigler. However, Ament is yet to play a second of college basketball which makes it hard to say he can lead Tennessee in the ways that Lanier or Zeigler did. Gillespie and Abram are top level scorers, but whether or not their production translates to the SEC is a huge factor. Tennessee will be battled tested early, which could pay some dividends later on, but will they be able to do enough in nonconference play? They are not in the best tier of SEC teams this season and will have their fair share of losses. I do not think Tennessee has what it takes to be a top team in the nation and think they may be a bubble team come March Madness.

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