MLB Predictions: Phillies vs. Padres Betting Odds and Picks
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 8/27/2010
A change of scenery could not come at a better time for Philadelphia or at a better place. The playoff hopeful Phillies just endured a stunning four-game sweep at home at the hands of the lowly Astros but now they head to San Diego where the matchup is a favorable one.
The Phillies remain only a half-game back of the Giants for the NL Wild Card and three games back of Atlanta in the NL East, but the recent sweep will not sit well with this ball club on the long cross country trip to San Diego to start a three-game series tonight at 10:05 p.m. ET in PETCO Park.
Against Houston, Philadelphia was favored in all four games including lines of –270 and –340. The Phillies offense was only able to muster seven runs in 43 innings of baseball that included a 16-inning loss on Tuesday.
On paper this looks like bad getting worse for the Phillies as they travel to the West Coast to play the National League’s best team after struggling against one of the league’s worst. San Diego is 19 games better than Houston, yet this matchup is more favorable to the Phillies who all of a sudden have a sense of urgency as the season winds down.
MLB Predictions: Pitching Matchup
Roy Oswalt (RHP, 9-13, 3.22 ERA) vs. Mat Latos (RHP, 13-5, 2.33 ERA)
The Phillies acquisition of Oswalt did not garner much attention, but so far he has made the biggest difference of all the trade deadline acquisitions. He is 3-1 since arriving in Philadelphia and he has a 1.65 ERA in his last four starts that included seven scoreless innings in his last game, a win over the Nationals.
On the heels of a four-game losing streak, Philadelphia is more than happy to send the 38-year old veteran to the mound. Oswalt is 10-2 with a 2.56 ERA in his career vs. San Diego including a 3-1 record and 2.06 ERA in PETCO Park.
Latos has been San Diego’s ace this season without a doubt. You have to go all the way back to June 4 to find the last time Latos gave up more than two earned runs (that was against the Phillies). You have to go all the way back to April 26 to find the last time Latos gave up more than three earned runs. The run of consistency and effectiveness has been remarkable.
His only start against the Phillies this season was his second worst outing. In one of his shortest starts of the season, Latos allowed four hits, four walks and three runs in five innings. His 0-1 record and 5.40 ERA against Philadelphia is not the only thing that should concern San Diego backers right now.
The 22-year old has been pushed back two days in this start as management worries of his workload. The goal was to keep his innings between 150 and 180 this season. Latos enters this season with 142 2/3 innings under his belt. It seems only a matter of time until the innings catch up to the youngster and Bud Black will be quick with the hook if he sees any trouble.
Phillies vs. Padres Betting Odds
San Diego is listed at -132 and the underdog Phillies are +122. The total is one of the lowest of the season for any game, it is set at 6 with odds are courtesy of Sportsbook.com.
Phillies vs. Padres Betting Trends
Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven road games
Phillies are 11-2 in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record
Padres are 13-3 in their last 16 games overall (14-3 at home)
Phillies are 7-2 in the last nine meetings with San Diego
Phillies are 21-8 in their last 29 games in San Diego
Phillies vs. Padres Betting Picks and Predictions
Betting against Latos, or the Padres for that matter, has been no way to build a bankroll this season, but this is a chance to catch a hungry Phillies team as an underdog. The low price on Philadelphia against the ace Latos is an indication that the oddsmakers are not about to write off the Phillies even after the four-game sweep. The play here is Philadelphia on the road.
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