NBA Home and Away Betting Trends
by Aaron Smith - 2/22/2010
In the National Basketball Association, teams that perform better on the road than at home are extremely difficult to find. The home court advantage is stronger than most people realize, but the oddsmakers also understand that; and sometimes, there are some teams that are very strong away from home against the spread. As an NBA handicapper, your goal should be to try and stay ahead of the curve and find home/away trends that can make you money. I want to take a look at some specific examples of trends that can help put you ahead of the game.
The first differential, which is by far the most common one, is an NBA team that is drastically better SU at home than they are away from home. Some of the differentials are quite staggering this season, but this is the norm year in and year out. Let’s take a look at this year’s best examples so far:
- The Denver Nuggets are 24-5 at home this season SU and just 13-14 on the road. This is definitely something they need to work on if they expect to win the Western Conference this year.
- The Sacramento Kings actually aren’t bad at home, going 13-13 SU, but on the road they are an absolutely abysmal 5-25.
- The Phoenix Suns are 20-7 SU at home, but they are just 14-16 on the road. They’ll need to improve this mark to ensure they do make the playoffs.
- The Toronto Raptors are 21-7 SU at home, but they are not good at all on the road, posting a mark of 10-17.
What about those teams that defy the norm and actually play just as well, or better, on the road than they do at home? They are few and far between in most years, but there are three very solid examples of this in the current season.
- Oklahoma City is 16-10 SU at home this year and they are 17-11 SU on the road.
- Philadelphia is 10-17 SU at home on the season and 11-17 on the road.
- Boston is a pedestrian 15-9 at home SU on the year and an impressive 20-10 on the road.
While SU trends can tell us quite a bit, it’s often more important to take a close look at ATS trends. The differentials obviously won’t be as wide here, since the oddsmakers do compensate well for the home court advantage that occurs in the NBA. The goal is to find some teams that are great to back either on the road or at home.
First, let’s take a look at teams that are much better to back on the road ATS than they are at home. There are several examples of this, so I’ve picked out the ones I feel fit the mold the best of all.
- The Dallas Mavericks are absolutely terrible ATS at home this year at just 6-20, but they are a solid ATS on the road at 17-13.
- The Portland Blazers are just 15-17 ATS at home, but they are 16-9 ATS on the road.
- The Miami Heat are just 12-13 ATS at home, but they are 18-13 on the road.
What about teams that are better at home ATS than they are on the road? Sometimes the same teams from the SU differentials at home show up, but at other times, the lines have been adjusted so much that even a team that is great SU at home doesn’t even cover half of the time. Here are a couple good examples from this year:
- The Minnesota Timberwolves are 17-12 ATS at home and just 12-16 on the road.
- The Raptors show up again, as they are 16-12 ATS at home and just 12-15 away from home.
It is important to remember that a team that is great ATS on the road isn’t necessarily great SU on the road, and a team that is great SU at home isn’t necessarily good ATS at home. If this were the case, betting on the NBA would be far too easy and the books would lose money hand over fist. As it is, we know that the oddsmakers are smart and adjust the lines according to the home court advantages that are evident. Finding home/away splits ATS that are good trends to ride isn’t easy, but it is possible, and it can make your account grow in a hurry!
Most Recent NBA Handicapping
- LA Lakers Could be in Real Trouble with LeBron and AD Injuries
- Free NBA Picks Wednesday 1/20/2021 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Friday 1/15/2021 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Wednesday 1/13/2021 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Friday 1/8/2021 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Wednesday 1/6/2021 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Friday 1/1/2021 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Wednesday 12/30/2020 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Friday 12/25/2020 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Wednesday 12/23/2020 and Opening Line Report