NFL Survivor Pool Strategy, Advice and Tips for Week 10
by Trevor Whenham - 11/9/2011
If you are still alive in your NFL survivor pool then you are probably dreaming of the finish line. There aren’t many people left, you are obviously on a roll, and you are dreaming of spending all the money you are going to win.
With our survivor pools strategy advice and predictions this week we’ll hopefully help you get one step close to that goal. Let’s take a look:
The Heavy Favorites
It is a strange week for NFL action because there just aren’t a lot of heavy favorites. Only two teams are favored by a touchdown or more as I write this — the Chargers at home against Oakland on Thursday night, and the Packers hosting the Vikings on Monday night.
There is no line set yet for the Eagles hosting the Cardinals, but there is a good chance that that one will qualify as well, so I’ll put it in this group, too.
Of those three games one is a clear no-brainer. The Packers are going to beat the Vikings. Period. The problem, of course, is that it is highly unlikely that anyone has made it this far in a survivor pool without yet using Green Bay. If you have then congratulations, and this is probably the time to do so.
The Chargers are a tougher call. On paper they should be able to win handily. There are two reasons for concern, though. First, San Diego has been very flat all year, and they are hard to trust as a result. Second, Carson Palmer is going to improve. People have been disappointed in his play so far, but that’s ridiculous given the amount of rust he has to shake off. He has some decent tools around him and will win a few games down the stretch. I’d pass on this one — even though the Chargers are reasonably likely to get the job done.
The Eagles are also reasonably likely to beat the Cardinals. Though I don’t like the lack of consistency in the effort of Philadelphia, they are more than talented enough to win this one, and they have the advantage of knowing Kevin Kolb very well. A lot of people will pick Philadelphia here, and I couldn’t argue with that.
Other Games of Interest
Buffalo at Dallas
The Cowboys are favored by as many as six points, so they will draw some real support here. I don’t think they deserve it.
Their play has been horribly inconsistent, and they will be without Miles Austin in this one. They have some holes on defense — especially in the secondary — and Ryan Fitzpatrick is certainly capable of exploiting them. It is not at all hard to imagine Buffalo pulling off the upset, so I would resist the temptation to back America’s Team.
New Orleans at Atlanta
This is the tightest game on the board this week because either team could pull it off. I personally lean towards the home team here, but I can’t make a compelling enough argument to be confident. When a game is this tight there is no reason to even consider playing it.
Houston at Tampa Bay
If Houston was at home this would be a no-brainer. There is clearly something wrong with the Bucs right now — they have been very flat for a few weeks.
Houston is playing reasonably well, and is now clearly motivated by the fact that they have a division title in their grasp for the first time.
I would feel far better if Houston was a better road team, but I would take them if I needed to.
Tennessee at Carolina
I don’t remember seeing a 2-6 team that is more popular with bettors. That is in part because they like to cover spreads, and in part because Cam Newton is so electric.
Tennessee has faltered badly after a fast start and is in trouble. Carolina will be a popular pick among people looking to gamble a bit this week.
I don’t hate the pick, and I would be on the same side, but I would look elsewhere first — this team still has lost three quarters of the games they have played.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
A lot of people have probably done well in their survivor pools this year just by betting against the Colts. While that’s mostly a great idea, I certainly don’t like it here.
Jacksonville is better than Indy, but not by much. They have a very green QB situation, issues galore, and are on the road. This is the very definition of a game to pass on.
New York Giants at San Francisco
If you told me that you knew before the season started that this could be a potential showdown for home field advantage in the NFC then I’d know you are a pathological liar. That’s what it is, tough, and it should be great.
There is no reason at all to pick this one in a pool, but it should be great to watch.
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