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NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 17: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 12/23/2025

NFL survivor pool picks Week 17 Bo Nix Denver Broncos

You are almost there. If you are alive in any capacity at this stage of the season, you have already done something 99% of other entrants were unable to do. Even though I was eliminated in Week 14, I would be truthfully happy with a single loss over the 18-week season. In Week 16, we took the Texans over the Raiders for the official selection, and the Saints over the Jets for the contrarian pick. Both plays cashed, but it wasn’t a straightforward week for the favorites, who went 9-7 straight up. The Detroit Lions (-6.5) were the biggest upset of the week, as they fell to the Steelers in a game filled with controversy. 

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Since Week 18 will be meaningless for some contenders, there is no point in saving any franchise if they are a confident pick this week. It’s time to go all-in in an attempt to make it to the final week of the year. Here are your Week 17 NFL survivor pool picks ranked from most to least confident. 

Denver Broncos (-12.5) Over Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos are the most confident pick of the week, as they will steamroll the helpless Kansas City Chiefs. It is hard to feel too bad for the Chiefs, but this has been a nightmare season for Kansas City. They are down to third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun, and now take on a Broncos side jostling for seeding at the top of the AFC. It really has been a changing of the guard in the AFC West, and there is no reason to look elsewhere if you still have Denver available. 

New England Patriots (-12.5) Over New York Jets

The other double-digit favorite this week is the New England Patriots, who are just behind the Broncos in the #2 seed. It is unlikely anyone has New England left after their easy schedule this year, but if you do, use them now, as their Week 18 tilt may be a meaningless game. The Patriots just took down the mighty Ravens, while the Jets somehow made the New Orleans Saints look like a Super Bowl contender in their blowout loss last week. That pretty much sums up these two teams this year, making the Patriots an incredibly confident selection this week. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) Over Indianapolis Colts

For the official contrarian selection of the week, we will take the Jacksonville Jaguars. The large spread might make them ineligible, but with five teams favored by 7+ points, they still may sneak under the radar. Jacksonville just took down the Broncos last week, and if they can piece up that defense, the Colts will not slow them down. Indianapolis is on a short week, they have seen their promising season evaporate in the last month, and will struggle to get going in this one. Jacksonville still has a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC, making them an easy team to put our life on the line with in Week 17. 

Los Angeles Rams (-8.5) Over Atlanta Falcons

The Rams' passing attack will be tested against a solid Falcons aerial defense, but they are still one of the best picks of the week. Matthew Stafford and company don’t want to be in a Wild Card spot at the end of the season, and beating the Falcons is the only way to keep their NFC West hopes alive. Kirk Cousins has shown signs of life since his benching, but a motivated Rams defense will rise to the occasion after blowing the lead against Seattle last week. Los Angeles is the Super Bowl favorite for a reason, and they will flex their muscles on Monday night. 

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) Over Arizona Cardinals

The Cincinnati Bengals will be our official selection this week. We have used all the other favorites of five plus points, so even though this isn’t the most confident pick of the week, desperate times call for desperate measures. Joe Burrow is still balling for the Bengals, and the Cincinnati front office will be desperate to win and show Burrow that they have a promising future. A sudden uptick in trade rumors will light a fire under the Bengals, and a win over the free-falling Cardinals isn’t too much to ask. If you have been following this column this year and have the same teams as me, the Bengals are the way to go in Week 17. 

Dallas Cowboys (-7) Over Washington Commanders

It is hard to trust Dallas on the road in a divisional matchup, but against Washington’s abysmal quarterback room, they are still a safe pick. The Cowboys offense was halted by the Chargers defense last week, but that is unlikely to continue against Washington’s 31st-ranked defense. Can we trust Josh Johnson, Jeff Driskel, or whoever else the Commanders throw in at quarterback to match Dak Prescott’s consistent form? I highly doubt it. The Commanders will have their moments, but they will be few and far between compared to the Cowboys' offensive explosion. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) Over Miami Dolphins 

The Buccaneers' season is on the line. Their offense is getting healthy, and even though Baker Mayfield isn’t in the MVP conversation, he can still outduel Quinn Ewers. Ewers looked alright against a dreadful Bengals defense last week, but he will get a real welcome to the league against the physicality Tampa Bay will bring into this matchup. The Buccaneers haven’t been the most inspiring team as of late, but they will get back on track in Miami at the expense of the Dolphins. 

Detroit Lions (-5.5) Over Minnesota Vikings

The Lions will be eliminated with a loss against Minnesota, but that won’t happen in Week 17. Detroit was unlucky to lose last week against Pittsburgh, and will not make the same mistakes here. Minnesota is overvalued after some close wins against bad teams, as they don’t have the firepower to keep up with Detroit. Anything can happen in divisional rivalries, but I am confident enough in the Lions to recommend them this week. 

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) Over Philadelphia Eagles

This short spread is confusing, as it would be shocking to see Philadelphia pull off this upset. The Bills are battling for the AFC East title and have taken down top teams in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the Eagles have gotten back on track with a few wins, but they haven’t faced a top team in over a month. Buffalo will roll in this one, and is a great pick if you want to mix things up at this stage of the year. 

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) Over Carolina Panthers

The Seahawks are a trap pick this week. Carolina’s strong run game will keep this one close, making them my least confident pick of the heavy favorites in Week 17. The Seahawks' extra rest, combined with an explosive offense, means if they get an early lead, this one will be over. However, if the Panthers hang around early, anything can happen with a confident Carolina defense. Seattle is still a better pick than the short favorites listed below, but if you have a more confident team left, I would look in that direction. 

Houston Texans (+1.5) Over Los Angeles Chargers

The Texans should be favored in this one, and are a solid pick if you haven’t used them already. Houston’s dominant defensive line will run through the Chargers, and Justin Herbert will be on the ground early and often. There are better picks to make, but if you want to really get crazy in an alternate survivor pool format, the Texans are a solid contrarian pick. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) Over Cleveland Browns

This is a game the Steelers should win to book their spot in the playoffs, but will they? The AFC North is an intense battleground, and this one will not come easy with Myles Garrett one sack away from the record. Now that DK Metcalf is suspended for the rest of the regular season, this game becomes that much closer to a toss-up in Week 17. 

New Orleans Saints (-3) Over Tennessee Titans

The edge goes to New Orleans after improved play in the last few weeks, but not by much. The Titans got their first home win of the season last week, and developing Cam Ward is still their primary target. The Saints also have less to lose in terms of draft positioning for next year, so they aren’t a terrible pick if you are really in a jam. 

San Francisco 49ers (-3) Over Chicago Bears

The Bears have pulled off upsets all year long. The edge still goes to the 49ers at home, but with Chicago having a rest advantage, the smarter play is to just stay away. 

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) Over Baltimore Ravens

These are two teams with injured quarterbacks coming off devastating losses last week. It is hard to trust either backup or banged-up defense, making this an easy one to avoid. Besides, if you saved the Packers and Ravens this long, you might as well use them in Week 18 instead of this collision course between two Super Bowl threats. 

New York Giants (+1.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders

I’m pretty sure both of these teams want to lose, as they currently sit #1 and #2 in the NFL 2026 draft standings. You probably have both of these teams left, but that doesn’t mean Week 17 is the time to start getting crazy. Just save yourself a headache and stay away. 

Official Pick of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals Over Arizona Cardinals

Contrarian Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Jacksonville Jaguars Over Indianapolis Colts

Teams Used: Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans

Status: Dead (Week 14)

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