NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 5: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 10/7/2026

NFL survivor pool picks Week 5 Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals

There is no better feeling in sports than surviving all 18 weeks of an NFL season. It takes an in-depth knowledge of the sport, the ability to accurately evaluate teams not just in the present, but the future, and a little bit of luck along the way. All year long, Doc’s Sports will be providing free survivor pool picks ranked from most to least confident, while providing expert strategy as to how to best take advantage. Last week, we took the Minnesota Vikings over the Miami Dolphins. And even though Minnesota didn’t find the end zone, they picked up the win. There were four teams favored by at least six points last week, with the Bills being the only upset when they lost to New England. We correctly stayed away in what was a relatively uneventful week for survivor pools. Week 5 marks the first week of byes while the teams we have used may start to become a factor. This is where it gets interesting, so let’s dive right into the Week 5 survivor pool picks ranked from most to least confident.

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Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) Over Miami Dolphins

Fading the Miami Dolphins has proven to be an excellent strategy so far this season, and we are not bucking away from that trend in Week 5. Miami has more than half of their cap space tied up in dead money, they just lost De’Von Achane to a season-ending injury, they are 0-4 and struggling on both sides of the ball, and there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Bengals are looking to get back on track after losing to Jacksonville, and I have no doubt Joe Burrow and company will run up the score. Cincinnati only has one real layup left on their schedule when the Titans come to town in a few weeks, but there are other solid options when that time comes. They will be our official survivor pool selection of the week as the Dolphins stay winless.

Houston Texans (-7.5) Over Tennessee Titans

The Houston Texans are winless this year, so while it may feel daunting to put your survivor pool life in their hands, this is a safe spot to do so. The Texans have found themselves in close games where small mistakes have cost them a victory, while the Titans have been getting steamrolled on a weekly basis. This Texans defense will keep the Titans in single digits, and even a lackluster showing from CJ Stroud will get them over the line. This is basically a must-win game for the Texans if they want to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, and is a solid pick that will fly under the radar.

Detroit Lions (-5.5) Over Arizona Cardinals

The Detroit Lions are a shorter favorite than some of the others at the top of this list, but they are still among the most confident selections for a reason. The Arizona defense looked great to start the season but has started to slow down lately. They take on a Detroit offense that is the epitome of consistency, as Jared Goff has thrown for nine touchdowns with zero interceptions so far this season. I have no doubt the Lions will score 30+ again this week, and can we really trust Jacoby Brissett and company to do the same? I don’t think so. While this is a top pick, the Lions have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, and I would look elsewhere this week with Houston and Cincinnati both more confident options.

Dallas Cowboys (-8.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Dallas Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night and are the biggest favorite of the week. Tampa Bay is still winless on the year and is without Baker Mayfield, but a generous Dallas defense could allow them to find their way offensively. However, that will not be enough as the Dallas offense is going full steam ahead and will rarely punt in this matchup. Dallas is still a worthy favorite, but they are just below the other favorites of more than a field goal as their defense is unproven and one turnover on offense could change the game.

New England Patriots (-3.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders

The New England Patriots lost to the Raiders in Week 1 last year before winning 18 of their next 19 games before losing in the Super Bowl. The story is very different this year, as the Raiders are 3-1 while New England is hovering at .500. Drake Maye snapped out of his slump in Week 4 with a huge win over the Bills, while this Raiders defense once again went belly-up. This will be a closer game than many may have expected, but I have no doubt the Patriots will find a way to win. They are a strong choice this week, but with two games still to go against both the Jets and Dolphins, there is no reason to get creative this week with New England.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) Over Baltimore Ravens

It is looking increasingly likely that Lamar Jackson will be unable to suit up for this one, which skyrockets the Falcons up this list. Baltimore’s offense is very one-dimensional, and without Jackson in the pocket, they will struggle to move the chains against a hungry Falcons defense. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons look like a new team with Michael Penix Jr. at the helm. They have put up 40 PPG since his return, albeit only a two game sample, as the offense is humming. Atlanta looks like they may be a very streaky team this year, so this is a great spot to use them up against a backup quarterback while they are hot.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) Over Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles look like a complete dumpster fire right now, and the vibes in the locker room must be even worse with Lane Johnson announcing his retirement midseason to get out of this mess. Their offense is even worse with Saquon Barkley injured, but something has me dropping this down the list. Just when the Eagles look out of it, they find a way to win, and just when the Jaguars look in control, they shoot themselves in the foot. With this one also being in London to add another dimension to the contest, it is hard to be very confident. Still higher than other coin flip games, but closer than this spread suggests.

Washington Commanders (-3.5) Over New York Giants

This is a massive game for the Commanders, and this could very well be one of the last times we can use them this season. Jayden Daniels is expected back in the lineup, but the injury prone quarterback may not make it all the way to Week 18. We need to plan ahead to survive a whole year, and taking Washington now might be our only chance to do so. New York’s offense is looking fragile, while Washington’s defense is surprisingly competent without their defensive line doing much. This is a must-win game for the Commanders, and we will take them as our official contrarian survivor pool pick of the week.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) Over Los Angeles Chargers
Will the Chargers ever win a game? The optimism was there for the Chargers heading into the season, but that has evaporated after an 0-4 start. Justin Herbert looks truly lost in the pocket, and a hungry Denver defense will be drooling over the chance to pile onto their misery. This spread is short with the game being at SoFi Stadium, but the Broncos still win a large majority of the time. However, the Broncos will have much easier matchups down the road, and it is probably better to look elsewhere.

Chicago Bears (-2.5) Over Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers got back on track with a win over Tampa Bay, but they are still thoroughly outclassed by the Bears. Chicago’s defense has proven time and time again that they can be trusted, while Jordan Love is playing some of the worst football of his career. It doesn’t really matter if it is Case Keenum, Tyson Bagent, Caleb Williams, or even Ben Johnson at quarterback, the Bears are too well-rounded to lose this matchup.

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) Over Pittsburgh Steelers

The only underdog I would seriously consider taking this week is the Indianapolis Colts. Pittsburgh’s defense is no longer strong enough to carry a lackluster offense, while the Colts have excelled by playing complementary football. This would be a gutsy play with little upside, but they are an average team this week in terms of confidence.

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) Over New Orleans Saints

Minnesota was a popular pick last week against Miami, and has some value here if you want to go against the grain. The Saints are on a short week after getting smacked by the Falcons on Monday, and didn’t look very good on either side of the ball. Minnesota is rocking the best defense in the league right now, and even on the road they could be worth a shot if you want to sit back and cheer for upsets further up the list.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) Over San Francisco 49ers

A battle for first place in the NFC West goes down this weekend, but it will have little impact on survivor pools. Seattle and San Francisco are both excellent teams, they are a combined 7-1 this year, and it would be foolish to take either side.

Los Angeles Rams (-3) Over Buffalo Bills

These are the two Super Bowl favorites facing off, and there is no reason to burn either of these excellent teams against one another.

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) Over New York Jets

The Browns are 3-1 against the 1-3 Jets, but they are on the road and in the underdog role. Cleveland is my lean since they appear to be better on both sides of the ball, and will find lots of success pass rushing Geno Smith. However, it is too early in the year to start playing games like this.

Official Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals Over Miami Dolphins

Contrarian Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Washington Commanders Over New York Giants

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Start:	October 7, 2026 @ 7:10 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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