NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 3: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 9/23/2026

NFL survivor pool picks Week 3 Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

You have found the right place for all your survivor pool picks, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every week, all season long. It has been a cruel start to the season for survivor pool fanatics with more than half of entries having already been eliminated. We saw the Chargers get upset in Week 1 as the biggest favorite of the week, while the Buccaneers, Ravens, and Chargers again all got upset in Week 2 as touchdown favorites. The stakes have already been raised as we head into Week 3. Last week, we took the 49ers over the Dolphins as our safe pick, and the Seahawks over the Cardinals for our contrarian selection. Both won by multiple touchdowns, giving us a sweat-free pass to Week 3. We have no shortage of options to choose from, so let’s jump right into the Week 3 NFL survivor pool picks ranked from most to least confident.

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Kansas City Chiefs (-11) Over Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins will be at the top of the survivor pool lists most weeks this year, but not for the right reasons. With more than half of their cap space tied up in dead money, there is really no hope for the Dolphins to start looking competent. Their roster is incredibly shallow, they cashed in their best assets for draft capital this offseason, so what do they have to offer? They host the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3, and this is absolutely the safest pick of the week. The Chiefs have looked ruthless to start the season, and there aren’t too many other spots they will secure a sweat-free win. I don’t mind using up the Chiefs at this stage of the season given they are the only double digit favorite this week.

San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) Over Arizona Cardinals

The San Francisco 49ers have secured two straight blowouts to start the year, and they will almost certainly make it three straight when they host the Cardinals. Brock Purdy is already throwing his hat in the ring for the MVP award, and an unforgiving defense will give up very little on the other side of the ball. Arizona is expected to finish near the bottom of the standings, and a Week 1 upset will not erase that fact. If you didn’t take the 49ers last week against Miami, this will be one of the last times to use up nearly a free win.

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) Over Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels going down dented Washington’s season, but they were already going nowhere with no defensive support. This might be the worst defense in the league against the best defense, and with Sam Darnold potentially suiting up, things aren’t getting any easier for the Commanders. Seattle has a pretty tough schedule after winning the division last year, meaning they aren’t a bad team to pick this week. This is a matchup that will likely fly under the radar, so if you don’t want to take one of the top dogs, Seattle is a confident, yet slightly unique pick.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) Over Chicago Bears

Don’t let this short spread deter you, if Caleb Williams is unable to suit up, the Eagles will win this game. It is speculative to lock in Philadelphia now in case Williams recovers, but he isn’t practicing and the Bears are getting ready to play Week 3 without him. The Eagles are 2-0 to start the year, but they haven’t looked dominant. Their offense hasn’t been on the same page, while their defense has been forced to do the heavy lifting. The wheels could still fall off this team so they are a side I want to use early, and were nearly the official pick of the week. They are a bit too high to be the contrarian pick too, so we will confidently put them somewhere in the middle, but still ahead of some other larger spreads.

Buffalo Bills (-7.5) Over Los Angeles Chargers

The Buffalo Bills have looked great while the Chargers have looked terrible, and they will probably get things done at home. However, the Chargers are slightly undervalued after getting bad turnover luck to open up the year, and this game could be closer than the spread suggests. However, expecting an outright upset when Josh Allen is playing the way he is would be too much to ask. The Bills have an easy schedule and should probably be saved, but they are still top-five this week for a reason.

Detroit Lions (-6.5) Over New York Jets

The Detroit Lions could easily be 0-2 heading into this one, and haven’t exactly looked like a cohesive unit this year. On the bright side, a date with the Jets is a much easier test than their trip to Buffalo last week. The Lions offense is still an excellent unit, and Geno Smith is not the type of quarterback who will be able to exploit the Lions injuries in their secondary. The Lions are relatively high on this list, but I would look elsewhere for your Week 3 pick. Detroit has a very easy schedule this year, and I want to see them put a few more wins on the board before we trust them with our life in this pool.

New Orleans Saints (-3) Over Las Vegas Raiders

The Saints will be our official contrarian selection of the week. Las Vegas is getting Brock Bowers back from injury, but he won’t be playing on the defensive side of the ball. The Raiders defense has looked vulnerable this year, relying on turnovers to bail out poor play. Despite going 2-0 with a pair of double digit wins, the Raiders have only outgained their opponents by a combined 26 yards, and that is not a recipe for sustained success. New Orleans has looked unstoppable over the last game and a half, and I expect Tyler Shough and company to pick up a relatively straightforward win.

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) Over Denver Broncos

The Super Bowl favorites aren’t right at the top of the list thanks to a tough matchup, but they should still get it done against Denver. The Broncos offense still has a few kinks to work out, and a tough Rams defense will not make it easy. Injuries to their opponents in primetime took away from their dominant display, but there will be no excuses if they run through the Broncos in this one. Despite this being high up the list, the Rams will be favored nearly every game this season, and are a valuable team to stash with other viable options.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) Over Pittsburgh Steelers

Divisional matchups can cause funky results, but what have we seen from the Steelers this season? They scraped past a freefalling Falcons side before getting held out of the endzone by the Patriots. A combination of an elderly Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin no longer on the team has shifted the Steelers identity, and they are a safe team to fade.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) Over Atlanta Falcons

These two have looked awful so far, but something has to change on Thursday night. A quarterback upgrade for the Falcons could let them get back on track with a strong defense on the other side of the ball, making this one an uneasy pick despite the big spread. The Packers are still the more confident side compared to some coin flip games, but this is one where we should avoid it altogether and root for the upset.

New York Giants (-2.5) Over Tennessee Titans

A Jaxson Dart injury will dent this team’s aspirations, but they are still good enough to defend home field… I think? We haven’t seen very many signs of life from the Titans this year, and this could be the last time to use New York if Dart is indeed out. It’s probably best to stay away, but you can take the Giants if you’re feeling frisky.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) Over Dallas Cowboys

The field conditions in Brazil mean that anything could happen in this one, but the nod still goes to Baltimore. These two passing offenses will cancel each other out, and Derrick Henry on the ground will tilt the field. The Cowboys have yet to get the stops they need this year, while I still trust this Ravens defense a bit more. There are better options up the board, but a Ravens pick can be justified.

Houston Texans (-2.5) Over Indianapolis Colts

Divisional matchups are always hard to pinpoint, and the slight edge goes to Houston on the road. This offense has questions to ask, but the defense is truly one of the best units in the league. One aspect of dominance is all we need against the Colts, who are still looking to find their identity with Daniel Jones at quarterback.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) Over New England Patriots

It’s usually best to stay away from two teams expected to make deep playoff runs. The Jaguars and Patriots will both be looking to avoid a sub-.500 record, and there is little reason to mess around with this matchup. Anything could happen here, and these are two teams we want to save anyways. Enough said.

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) Over Carolina Panthers

The Browns defense is legit, they are at home, and are sticking with the better quarterback heading into Week 3. The Panthers will have lots of winnable games to come in a dreadful NFC South, and this one is better left alone.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) Over Minnesota Vikings

Just stay away. Both of these teams have major flaws on offense, and putting your life in their hands would be a big mistake. Lean goes to Tampa Bay at home, but there is absolutely no justification to get involved.

Official Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs Over Miami Dolphins

Contrarian Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: New Orleans Saints Over Las Vegas Raiders

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Start:	September 23, 2026 @ 10:05 PM
Expert:	Raphael Esparza (VSI)
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