NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4: Advice and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 9/29/2026

NFL survivor pool picks Week 4 Kyler Murray Minnesota Vikings

All season long, Doc’s Sports will be providing free survivor pool picks ranked from most to least confident. Winning a survivor pool takes planning, an in-depth knowledge of the league, and a little bit of luck, but it can be one of the most rewarding feats in the world of sports betting. Last week, we saw several upsets with the Packers (-5.5), Seahawks (-8), and Eagles (-4.5) all losing outright, which were three of the seven teams favored by more than four points. For our official entry, we played it safe with the Kansas City Chiefs over the Miami Dolphins, which should have allowed you to live another day.

We still have a few more weeks before things really start to get interesting, but that doesn’t take away the importance of these early-season picks. Only four teams are favored by more than a field goal this week, which makes selecting which favorite to tail, and which to root for an upset, an incredibly impactful decision. Here are your Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks ranked from most to least confident.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Minnesota Vikings (-11.5) Over Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins haven’t led for a single minute this season, and things will not get any easier after losing Devon Achane for the season with a torn ACL. Achane was one of the few bright spots for Miami, and his absence makes it incredibly difficult to expect an upset anytime soon for the Dolphins. I fully expect Miami to finish the season 0-17, potentially 1-16, which makes them a great fade candidate on a weekly basis. They take on the Vikings this week, who have started the year 3-0. Minnesota’s defense has been an immovable object, and the Dolphins simply don’t have the playmakers healthy or available to pull off this upset. The Vikings still have a few questions to answer offensively themselves, but they are more than good enough to take care of business. I am not too worried about saving the Vikings compared to the other big favorites this week, so they will be our official survivor pool pick of the week.

Baltimore Ravens (-11.5) Over Tennessee Titans

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense look to be in full rhythm through the first three weeks of the season, and they have a very winnable matchup in Week 4. Derrick Henry is a machine on the ground, Jackson is capable of magic in the pocket, and Baltimore has played complementary football up to this point in the season. Meanwhile, Cam Ward and the Titans have looked dreadful, and just lost to a Jameis Winston-led Giants side who didn’t even find the endzone. There is no doubt the Ravens deserve first or second spot on this list this week, but we will opt to save them for another day with the Vikings a better team to burn.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) Over Los Angeles Chargers

The Seattle Seahawks got upset last week by the Washington Commanders, but they will get right back on track in this matchup. They outgained Washington by nearly 200 yards, and still only lost by two despite turning the ball over three times. On the other side of the field, the Chargers have looked completely lost on offense, not yet scoring 17+ points in a game this season. Seattle’s defense is what carried them to a Super Bowl victory last year, and this is a nightmare matchup for the Chargers to try and secure their first win of the season. If you want to avoid the two double digit favorites and root for a season-changing upset, the Seahawks are a great choice to target.

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) Over New England Patriots

New England is due for some positive regression from Drake Maye, but that will not come this week against Buffalo. The Bills overcame five turnovers last week to still edge the Chargers, while New England got utterly destroyed by Jacksonville. It appears as though Drake Maye is hitting a sophomore slump during his second full season as the starter, and things won’t get easier on the road against the Bills. Looking forward, the Bills still have a pair of games against Miami where they will be double digit favorites, which means it is wise to look elsewhere rather than use them up this week.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders

The Kansas City Chiefs are an excellent option if you want to avoid the four heavy favorites. The Raiders are a surprising 3-0 to start the year, as are the Chiefs, but a soft schedule allowed them to get where they are. Kansas City’s offense with a healthy Patrick Mahomes, a rejuvenated Travis Kelce, and an elite running back in Kenneth Walker III will not be slowed down. Las Vegas’s dream start will come to an end here, as it is only a matter of time before Kirk Cousins falls apart.

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) Over Denver Broncos

There isn’t a large spread in this matchup, but seeing the 49ers lose their first game of the season against Denver would come as a surprise. The Broncos have only scored 10 first half points across their three games this season, as they have been coming out flat and needing late game heroics to win. The 49ers are at home, and haven’t even found themselves in a close game yet this season. While they are relatively high on the list, they are still a tier below the top four teams, and will have lots of easy matchups down the stretch. Taking a Super Bowl favorite in a heavyweight clash is not a good long term strategy in season-long survivor pools.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) Over Cleveland Browns

The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns face off in a tantalizing AFC North clash on Thursday night. If you want to get your survivor pool sweat over early, the Steelers are a quietly solid choice. Aaron Rodgers has been able to turn back the clock with a strong showing last week, but I am not fully convinced he will make it all the way to Week 18. The Steelers haven’t looked great otherwise, which means this is a team we may want to use up early while we still can. Cleveland’s defense allowed them to take over against the Panthers last week, but inconsistent offensive play caps their ceiling. This will be our official contrarian pick of the week, as using Pittsburgh at a time like this may be a decision we look back fondly at later this year.

Los Angeles Rams (-3) Over Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles laid a goose egg against the Bears on Monday night, and they now take on the mighty Rams on a short week. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense was flat, their defense has still yet to generate a turnover, and they take on a motivated Rams side looking for revenge. There are still question marks surrounding Puka Nacua, who is unlikely to play, but the Rams have enough pass-catching talent to offset his absence. From a long term point of view, there are better options with the Rams favored in nearly every game this season, but this is still a better pick than others further down the list.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) Over Carolina Panthers

Detroit is lucky to be 2-1 heading into this matchup, but I don’t expect this one to even be close. Carolina’s defense was already struggling before losing several starters to injury, and it now looks impossible to expect many Lions punts in this Sunday night matchup. Bryce Young has looked serviceable at quarterback, but keeping up with a high-flying Lions offense will be another story. While I am confident the Lions win, there will be better times to use them as they have the easiest schedule in the league.

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) Over New Orleans Saints

This one smells fishy, but I am okay with taking the Falcons in the underdog role if you don’t like the other options. They have extended rest having played on Thursday last week, and look like a new team with Michael Penix Jr. under center. Penix has realized that he doesn’t have to do too much with playmakers like Bijan Robinson and Drake London to aim at, and a conservative approach will lead to success against the Saints. Tyler Shough will force the ball when he should live another down, making the Falcons a great pick if you think upsets are brewing this week.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) Over Jacksonville Jaguars

While the Bengals should win this game more often than not, it is usually best to stay away from these kinds of matchups for the same reasons as the Broncos vs 49ers tilt. Jacksonville has looked great, albeit against struggling teams this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals offense is humming as usual, and now they finally have the defensive support to start putting wins on the board. As long as this defense doesn’t give up 30+ points to a red hot Lawrence, Cincinnati will prevail.

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) Over Washington Commanders

Strange things happen in international games, but the pick is still the Colts as relatively sizable favorites. Washington is coming off an upset against the Seahawks and is due for a letdown spot, and they needed three turnovers to snatch victory from Seattle. Indianapolis runs the ball well, and the Commanders defensive line still needs a bit more time together before they can get consistent stops. Daniel Jones is 2-1 in international games in his career, while Marcus Mariota lost his only trip to London. If you are looking to take a chance, the Colts aren’t a bad pick for Week 4.

Chicago Bears (-3.5) Over New York Jets

Can Case Keenum do it again? His Monday night miracle was quite the show, but doing it again up against a strong Jets defense could be a different story. The Bears are comfortable favorites, but everything went right for them last week and expecting more of the same may be too much to ask. They still get the nod over Geno Smith and the Jets, but this game is far less confident than the spread suggests.

Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) Over New York Giants

This is a matchup between two of the worst teams in the league, which means this could be a diamond in the rough if you want to get aggressive and save the top dogs for later in the season. The slight lean goes to Arizona as the Giants looked to be the lesser of two evils last week, but putting your life in the hands of either of these sides is asking for trouble.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Two weeks ago, this looked like a great matchup. Now? Far from it. Baker Mayfield is out with a thumb injury, paving the way for undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels to start. For the Packers, they looked truly terrible against Atlanta on both sides of the ball, which makes this nearly a must win game on the road. The lean goes to Green Bay, but an unknown Daniels and a sputtering Packers offense has this near the bottom of the list.

Houston Texans (-2.5) Over Dallas Cowboys

What happens when a movable object comes up against a stoppable force? The Cowboys defense has been the worst unit in the league on several metrics this season, while the Texans offense looks utterly disastrous with C.J. Stroud at the helm. How Houston’s defense fares against a strong Cowboys offense will be interesting, but there is way too much variance in this matchup to confidently take either side.

Official Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Minnesota Vikings Over Miami Dolphins

Contrarian Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers Over Cleveland Browns

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Start:	September 29, 2026 @ 9:05 PM
Expert:	Raphael Esparza (VSI)
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