NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 9: Advice and Predictions
There is no greater feat than surviving an entire season in an NFL survivor pool. It takes in-depth knowledge of the league, the ability to plan ahead, and a little bit of luck, and Doc’s Sports will be right beside you from Week 1 until Week 18. Each week, we will rank the survivor pool picks from most to least confident, with an official and contrarian selection each week. Last week, we took the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Indianapolis Colts for our official selection, which was a sweat-free 42-7 win. We also took the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Cleveland Browns for our contrarian pick, which was another easy winner. The only big favorite to fall was the Dallas Cowboys against the Arizona Cardinals, which we had down at sixth place as I smelled an upset brewing. Two teams have a bye this week which gives us 15 matchups to choose from, and there are lots of sizable favorites to choose from. Let’s dive in.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5) Over Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville is coming off the largest margin of victory for any team this season, and now takes on a free-falling Ravens side. Lamar Jackson is on IR, Tyler Huntley is out for the season, and third-string Joe Fagnano is set to start. Fagnano looked acceptable during his appearance against the Bills, but it is hard to imagine him doing too much on a short week while he is hobbled with an injury. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is looking like a legitimate Super Bowl threat and have their sights set on the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They have three wins by 24+ points this year, and this has all the makings of another beatdown. They still have two games against the Titans, and face off against the Colts and Commanders later this season, making them a good team to save if you didn’t use them last week. The most confident pick of the week, but potentially not the wisest with so many big favorites.
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders
The San Francisco 49ers are coming off their bye week, which means they had two long weeks to think about their first loss of the season. They will be coming out angry against the Raiders in this one, who don’t have enough on either side to realistically stay competitive in this one. Las Vegas has the worst defense in the league with 397 yards allowed per game this season thanks to no pressure up front and a vulnerable secondary. That is a recipe for disaster against Brock Purdy and the 49ers, who should make this look easy. Other than a Week 17 matchup against the Eagles, San Francisco doesn’t have too many layups left on the schedule, so they will be our official survivor pool pick of Week 9.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) Over New York Jets
The New York Jets have dropped three straight games including ugly losses to the previously winless Dolphins and the Raiders, who were on a four-game skid. They now take on the Kansas City Chiefs, and this looks like a massive mismatch. The Kansas City offense has somehow gotten even better with Kenneth Walker III in the backfield, giving Patrick Mahomes the best run support of his career. Couple that with a dominant defense, and New York is outmatched nearly everywhere on the field. Kansas City takes on Arizona in two weeks, which is a good spot to use them, but that is their last big spread on the schedule before a potentially meaningless Week 18 tilt against the Raiders. If you already have someone else picked for Week 11, taking the Chiefs now is the way to go.
Seattle Seahawks (-12.5) Over Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks are the biggest favorite of the week, and while I still have them quite high as I expect them to win, I am less confident here than the other three favorites by more than nine points. The Cardinals have looked awful during stretches of this season, but have two big upsets over the Rams and Cowboys under their belt. The defense has been able to bend and not break, and now they have new life with Gardner Minshew getting his first start of the season. Seattle is the reigning Super Bowl champions for a reason with a truly excellent defense, but Sam Darnold has looked a bit shaky on the other side of the ball. Will the Seahawks win? Probably. But the Cardinals have pulled off miracles before, and that is not a team we want to fade in the punishing survivor pool format.
Detroit Lions (-6.5) Over Miami Dolphins
The Detroit offense has struggled on the road compared to at home, but this is a prime matchup to run up the score. Miami got a win this year, congratulations, but their defense has serious holes against both the pass and the run. More than half of their salary cap is tied up in dead money, giving the Lions an advantage in both the skill positions and depth in this one. Detroit cannot afford to lose ground in a very tight NFC North race, and while they tend to make things harder on themselves than they need to be, it is hard to see them losing in Miami.
Houston Texans (-4.5) Over Los Angeles Chargers
Will the Chargers win this year? It has been a complete disaster for Justin Herbert and company, and things are not going to get any easier against a punishing Texans defense. Houston will cause chaos up front, and as long as C.J. Stroud doesn’t repeatedly turn the ball over to give the Chargers short fields, I don’t see how Los Angeles wins this one. It is hard to call it a contrarian selection against an 0-7 Chargers side, but with a short spread and lots of other options, this is still a pick against the grain and will be our official contrarian selection of the week.
Chicago Bears (-6.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chicago sent the league a message with their Monday night win over Seattle, and this matchup has all the makings of a good old-fashioned, violent football game. Tampa Bay won without completing a pass last week, while the Bears are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. The difference will be on the defensive side of the ball, where Chicago has an advantage in the trenches. The Bears defensive line got even better with the addition of Jeffery Simmons, allowing them to play complementary football. They still have the Saints next week and the Dolphins later this year, so while you can pull the trigger on Chicago, there is also value in holding firm.
Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) Over Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders got dealt more bad injury news with defensive linemen Javon Kinlaw and Daron Payne suffering serious injuries. Their defense was already struggling, and now they will find it harder to generate any pressure up front against Matthew Stafford. The Rams’ offense is a balanced and deep unit with Puka Nacua getting plenty of attention, which makes it hard to see Washington slowing them down. The slight hesitancy is with Los Angeles making the trip across the country with an early start time, especially since they have struggled with long flights in the past. However, the talent gap is wide enough that it shouldn’t be a problem.
Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) Over Indianapolis Colts
The Cowboys threw the game away last week against Arizona, and it will be interesting to see how they manage to lose against the tanking Colts. In all seriousness, if Dallas loses this game, it may be time for heads to start rolling on that sideline. The Cowboys offense is playing incredible football right now, and they come up against a Colts side currently holding a fire sale for all available talent. Dallas is still in the NFC East race, and this is a game where their offense will be able to outscore any defensive lapses.
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) Over Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings suffered their first defeat of the season last week, and will likely make it two straight when the Bills come to town. Buffalo’s league-leading offense against the Vikings league-leading defense will be a treat, but the real matchup is on the other side of the ball. Kyler Murray has tweaked his hamstring, which means Carson Wentz may be forced to start this one. Even if Murray is good to go, the Bills defense is good enough to keep Minnesota behind the sticks and force them into third-and-longs. The Vikings won’t convert often enough to win, but it is still probably better to look elsewhere with the Bills having several easy games still to come this year.
Denver Broncos (-2.5) Over Carolina Panthers
The Broncos keep finding ways to win games, and they are not a team to fade in survivor pools. However, going on the road against a desperate Panthers side is far from an easy win, which has them relatively far down this list. The Denver defense will stifle Bryce Young and company, but I am not convinced that Bo Nix and the Broncos offense will do enough to pull away. The Panthers have a young and potentially explosive offense that will not go down easily.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) Over Atlanta Falcons
The Bengals and Falcons clash in Madrid this week, and it will be interesting to see how Atlanta responds after their wet and wild defeat against the Buccaneers. The Bengals also had a shaky showing in which they needed overtime to beat the 1-7 Titans, making this one a hard one to predict. The Bengals offense has been the most consistent unit in this matchup, but the return of James Pearce Jr. from suspension for the Falcons could throw a wrench in that plan. Too many variables here to be too confident in the Bengals, who also have more winnable matchups later this year.
New England Patriots (-3) Over Green Bay Packers
The Packers have been incredibly inconsistent this year, looking like a coherent unit one week, and an utter disaster the next. The Patriots have been more consistently average this season, and that should be enough to take advantage of Green Bay’s mistakes. However, there are better options up the board.
New York Giants (-3.5) Over Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants should win this game to extend their lead at the top of the NFC East, but anytime the Giants should do something, they usually do the opposite. Any road team in a divisional matchup should be avoided in survivor pools, as this is the game the Eagles have circled on their calendar to play spoiler. New York’s health advantage should allow them to prevail, but I wouldn’t put my survivor pool life in their hands at this stage of the season.
Cleveland Browns (+1.5) Over New Orleans Saints
The Browns have just seen Deshaun Watson enter concussion protocol, while the Saints are a complete disaster on both sides of the ball. The edge goes to Cleveland with their superior defense, but the Saints are at home and coming off a bye week. Just stay away.
Official Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: San Francisco 49ers Over Las Vegas Raiders
Contrarian Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Houston Texans Over Los Angeles Chargers
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