NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 10: Advice and Predictions
We have officially ticked into the second half of the NFL season. Surviving this long has not been easy, as fewer than 10% of the survivor pool entries remain from the start of the season. Week 9 was another eventful week in the world of survivor pools, as the Green Bay Packers lost outright as -13.5 point favorites. The Lions also lost as -8.5 point favorites, as the favorites went a disappointing 8-6 straight up. That knocked out more than 30% of the remaining survivor pool entries, but we were fortunate enough to stay away as we went with the Rams over the Saints. Our contrarian pick made us sweat, but the Bears clawed back to stun the Bengals, giving us a perfect 2-0 record last week. No double-digit spreads this week means we have our work cut out for us, as we look to survive a tricky slate of Week 10 games. Here are the survivor pool picks for Week 10, ranked from most to least confident.
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Detroit Lions (-8.5) Over Washington Commanders
This is the top play of the week. Washington is incredibly banged up, missing Jayden Daniels among ten Week 1 starters expected to miss this matchup. This was already an old and shallow team heading into the year, and the injury bug has completely derailed their Super Bowl dreams. On the other side of the field, the Lions have revenge on their mind from last year’s playoffs and will want to get back in the win column after last week’s defeat. Detroit still has a home game against the Giants scheduled for a couple of weeks from now, but otherwise has a tough remaining schedule. The Lions are the most confident Week 10 survivor pool pick, and I see no reason to wait any longer on pulling the trigger with Detroit. If you haven’t used them already, the Lions are the pick of the week.
Buffalo Bills (-9.5) Over Miami Dolphins
Divisional games are always worrisome in survivor pools, but the Bills' recent dominance over the Dolphins still makes this a safe pick. Buffalo has won 14 of the last 15 matchups between these two teams, and Miami just sold their best defender at the trade deadline. Anything short of a Bills blowout would be a surprise, as they are a great pick for this week. However, the Bills still have several easy matchups to go, so if you have other solid options in Week 10, saving the Bills for at least one more week is the way to go.
Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) Over Atlanta Falcons
You never know what you are going to get from the Falcons on a weekly basis, but what you do know is that this Colts offense will roll. They scored 20 points last week despite turning the ball over six times, and they will be able to put up 30+ points against a helpless Falcons defense. Atlanta doesn’t have the same consistency on offense, and it would take a defensive masterclass to pull off this upset. The Colts have a few winnable games left on their schedule, but they are still a strong selection if you have already used the Lions.
Carolina Panthers (-5.5) Over New Orleans Saints
The Panthers are above .500 with a 5-4 record and have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Saints sold Rasheed Shaheed at the trade deadline and will use the rest of this season to evaluate talent for next year. New Orleans has nothing to look forward to at this stage of the season, and the Panthers will be able to run their way to victory. This one won’t be a blowout, but when the Saints can’t stop the run, the Panthers will emerge victorious.
Chicago Bears (-3.5) Over New York Giants
The Giants are a complete mess right now, losing three straight, including back-to-back double-digit defeats. Meanwhile, the Bears' offense is firing on all cylinders with four wins in their last five games. Chicago has been overlooked due to previous disappointments, but a confident quarterback with a seasoned head coach is a dangerous duo. The Bears will be able to pick this win up with ease, for the second straight week, they will be the contrarian pick. A short spread will deter many survivor pool veterans, but the Bears are a great pick to make before sitting back and hoping for some upsets.
Denver Broncos (-9.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders
The Broncos' offense has a bad habit of falling asleep for three of the four quarters each week. Luckily for them, the Raiders are bad enough on both sides of the ball that it won’t take much to win on Thursday night. Denver doesn’t have too many easy games left on their schedule after the Raiders, and will undoubtedly be a very popular pick this week. While I am still relatively confident they will win, the Broncos are long overdue for the bounces to stop falling their way. They’re a good, but not great pick this week, considering that most of the remaining entries may go in this direction.
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) Over Arizona Cardinals
A divisional matchup like this sounds off alarm bells, but the Seahawks still should pick up this win. Rasheed Shaheed joins an already dangerous passing attack and is poised to break out with the spotlight on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Cardinals' defense was able to shut down a potent passing attack from the Cowboys last week, but they didn’t look that dominant outside of crucial fourth-down stops. Seattle’s passing offense is too strong for Arizona, which will ride with Jacoby Brissett as its starter for the time being.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) Over Pittsburgh Steelers
This is a sneaky good pick this week. The Steelers are overvalued after a season-high six takeaways last week, but have been otherwise quite underwhelming. The Chargers have a difficult second half to navigate, and this will be one of the last times to use them if you haven’t already. Justin Herbert will get the ball out of his hands quickly to neutralize the Steelers' pass rush, and I don’t see how they lose this one on Sunday Night Football.
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) Over Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore got back in the win column last week with Lamar Jackson’s return, and extra rest will allow them to cruise past the Vikings in Week 10. An early skid dropped Baltimore down the power rankings, but there is simply too much talent on this roster for that to have continued. Minnesota has been able to stay competitive this season with a revolving door at quarterback, but a win over the Ravens is too much to ask.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) Over New York Jets
The New York Jets shipped out their two best players at the trade deadline as they shift into tank mode for the rest of the campaign. If you want to get crazy, the Cleveland Browns are a great pick to make with the future in mind. A strong Browns defense will shut down the Jets, while New York gets used to life without their best defensive pieces. Putting your survivor pool life in the hands of the Browns is a daunting proposition, but with a crumbling Jets side across the field, it isn’t a bad call.
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) Over Green Bay Packers
The Monday Night Football matchup could go either way, but the Eagles’ physicality will allow them to prevail. The Packers offense has been inconsistent this season, faltering against the Browns and Panthers in a pair of ugly defeats. The Eagles know how to grind their way to wins, and don’t be deterred by these underdog odds. However, even though the Eagles are a decent pick this week, they still have a game against the Raiders and a pair against the Commanders, where saving them may come in handy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) Over New England Patriots
The Buccaneers are rested, having just taken their bye week, and that extra time will allow them to roll out a healthier roster against the Patriots. Drake Maye and the New England offense have looked great so far, but a soft first-half schedule has been a contributing factor. This will be a great measuring stick for how good New England really is, and I expect them to fall just short.
Houston Texans (-1.5) Over Jacksonville Jaguars
Uncertainty around CJ Stroud makes this one a pass. If the Texans quarterback is good to go then maybe you can justify taking Houston, but one hit could also knock him out of the game with another concussion. If Stroud sits, then the Jaguars become a viable pick.
San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) Over Los Angeles Rams
This divisional clash has unpredictability written all over it. Both of these quarterbacks have been excellent, and this feels like a game where whoever has the ball last will win. Two strong teams facing off is not what we are looking for in survivor pools.
Official Pick of the Week: Detroit Lions Over Washington Commanders
Contrarian Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Chicago Bears Over New York Giants
Teams Used: Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Rams
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