NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 13: Advice and Predictions
There are just six weeks to go in the NFL regular season, and we have reached the two-thirds point of the year. Surviving until this stage of the season is impressive, but the job is far from over. These last six weeks will be the most challenging of them all. Doc’s Sports will be providing free survivor pool advice, as we rank each choice this week from most to least confident. Last week, both our official and contrarian selections won outright, as the Patriots and Rams made it look easy in their respective victories. All thirty-two teams are in action this week, so let’s get right into the survivor pool picks.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
Seattle Seahawks (-11.5) Over Minnesota Vikings
The Seattle Seahawks are the top selection of the week, and this is a great time to pull the trigger if you haven’t already. The Seahawks are the better team on both sides of the ball, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba is truly unstoppable right now. The Vikings have serious flaws on offense, and a strong Seattle defense will look to force turnovers early and often. Seattle only has the Rams and Colts left at home this season, making this the last safe time to use Seattle.
Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders
The Chargers are an excellent pick as they come off their bye week and will be our official selection of the week. Justin Herbert knows how to navigate his struggling offensive line, and the Raiders' secondary will leave receivers open down the field. Las Vegas hasn’t been truly exposed on defense thanks to a strong pass rush combined with a lack of elite opposition quarterbacks this season. Herbert will slice them apart, and firing Chip Kelly won’t suddenly bring the Raiders offense to life. There are several big favorites this week to choose from, but it doesn’t get much safer than the Los Angeles Chargers.
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) Over Carolina Panthers
Matthew Stafford is playing the best football of his career. The MVP favorite has strung together 25 touchdown passes since his last interception, and a lackluster Panthers defense will not disrupt his rhythm. Injuries and suspensions for the Panthers will have a big role to play, and a banged-up defense will be helpless against the mighty Rams. The Panthers also don’t mount many comebacks with their reliance on the run game, and a lot would have to go wrong for them to pull out the win. We have already used the Rams this year, but this is absolutely a safe pick if you haven’t.
Denver Broncos (-6) Over Washington Commanders
As long as Jayden Daniels doesn’t play, there is nothing special about the Commanders. They have lost the most games due to injury this season, they have dropped six in a row, and there is little hope of a turnaround. This is exactly the type of game Washington can win with Daniels, but they are truly helpless without him. Denver’s strong defense will shut down Marcus Mariota, while Bo Nix and company will do enough on offense to eventually pull away. The Broncos do have the Raiders on tap next week, but I don’t touch divisional road teams in survivor pools. This is a great chance to use up Denver as they are still a top pick this week.
New England Patriots (-7.5) Over New York Giants
Drake Maye showed he was human last week, but the Patriots still strung together a ninth consecutive win. New England’s defense turned up against a dangerous Bengals offense, and they will be able to easily shut down Jameis Winston on Monday night. Maye will get back into his groove with a strong showing, and the Patriots are a great pick to make. New England does still have the Dolphins and Jets in the final two weeks of the year, but it is better to use up the elite teams before they potentially rest their stars before the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) Over Arizona Cardinals
Tampa Bay will be our contrarian selection this week, as they have no choice but to beat the Cardinals. The Buccaneers' firm grip on the NFC South has slipped, and they are suddenly looking vulnerable heading into the business end of the season. Luckily, they have an easy matchup against the Cardinals to get back on track, and they will do exactly that on Sunday. Baker Mayfield will be desperate to rebound after his poor showing on primetime, and a free-falling Cardinals defense is the perfect victim.
Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) Over Houston Texans
The Colts aren’t as big a favorite as some of the other games this week, but they are still an excellent selection. They went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs last week; they are at home, and Davis Mills simply isn’t a starting quarterback in the NFL. The Colts need this game with the Jaguars hot on their heels, and it would be truly shocking to see an upset. Houston’s strong defense can only get them so far, as the Colts will completely shut down Mills and the offense.
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) Over Cleveland Browns
It’s not the time to buy into the Shedeur Sanders hype train. Picking apart the Raiders is one thing, but the 49ers are a much tougher task. The return of Brock Purdy invigorated the San Fran offense, and more of the same should be expected in Cleveland. Road teams can be scary to take as anything can happen on any given week, but the 49ers have too many advantages all over the field to lose this one.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) Over Tennessee Titans
The Titans are already looking at next year's draft, while the Jaguars have stormed into a Wild Card spot in the AFC. It is a very tight race in the AFC, and Jacksonville simply can’t lose this game. That usually isn’t justification enough to automatically tail, but the Titans' dreadful defense makes this a solid pick in Week 13.
Baltimore Ravens (-7) Over Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens are big favorites, but who knows what Joe Burrow’s return will do to the Bengals. He won’t fix their defense, but Burrow adds an extra variable we will look to avoid in survivor pools. The Ravens are dominant, but there are still good options left later this year, and this one has too many question marks to feel confident pulling the trigger.
Miami Dolphins (-5.5) Over New Orleans Saints
This is a good one with the rest of the season in mind, but it is hard to trust the Dolphins with your survivor pool life. They edged past the truly terrible Commanders in Miami two weeks ago, and still have a minimal but legitimate hope of making the playoffs. The Dolphins will find a way to win, but it won’t be pretty, and they will be one Tua Tagovailoa turnover away from defeat. I don’t hate the Dolphins this week, but they definitely aren’t the strongest pick.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) Over Dallas Cowboys
Both of these teams are fighting for a playoff spot, making this an incredibly intense Thanksgiving matchup. Kansas City gets the nod thanks to its defensive advantage, but it is never wise to fade this Dallas offense in the survivor pool format. Kansas City still has the Raiders and Titans down the line, so there is no need to get cute with so many other solid picks.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) Over Buffalo Bills
This one is best left alone. We can’t trust the Bills to give Josh Allen enough to work with, while we also can’t trust the Steelers, given their quarterback situation. The slight edge goes to Pittsburgh, provided that Aaron Rodgers plays, but there are better, much safer options up the list.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) Over New York Jets
Despite their placement on the list, the Falcons are still a decent choice this week. There aren’t many top teams left to choose from in Week 13, and taking Atlanta this week will keep your options open in the final month of the year. The Jets used to be dangerous on the defensive side of the ball, but even Kirk Cousins can pick them apart after their trade deadline fire sale.
Detroit Lions (-2.5) Over Green Bay Packers
The NFC North could be decided by this matchup, and this will be a fiercely competitive game. High stakes and a tight matchup are two things we look to avoid in survivor pools, and taking either of these elite contenders would be a massive mistake.
Chicago Bears (+7) Over Philadelphia Eagles
There is no reason to take Chicago this week, but I do think they have an edge in this matchup. Take their placement on the list as a real warning to stay away from this game.
Official Pick of the Week: Los Angeles Chargers Over Las Vegas Raiders
Contrarian Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over Arizona Cardinals
Teams Used: Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots
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