NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 11: Advice and Predictions
There is no greater accomplishment than surviving an entire NFL season without taking a single defeat. Navigating 18 weeks of a survivor pool is no easy task, but Doc’s Sports will be guiding you every step of the way this season. Last week, both our official and contrarian picks won for the third consecutive week. The Detroit Lions made it look easy against a helpless Washington side, while the Chicago Bears took care of business against the New York Giants. There were a couple of major upsets last week, as the Panthers (-5.5) and Bills (-9.5) both lost outright. The Panthers were one of the most popular choices in Week 10, so if you survived, you are now looking at less than 10% of original entries still alive. There is only one double-digit favorite in Week 11, with 11 of the 15 spreads coming in at 5.5 points or less. Lots of close matchups mean more blood could be shed in Week 11, so let's dive right into your survivor pool picks ranked from most to least confident for this week.
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Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) Over Cleveland Browns
The Ravens are the top survivor pool pick you can make this week. Baltimore has won three in a row to save their season, and now faces a Browns team coming off a loss to the lowly New York Jets. A divisional game can raise red flags in a survivor pool, but a rejuvenated Ravens side looks poised for a big win. Lamar Jackson has picked up where he left off since returning from injury, while the Ravens' defense can match the Browns’ intensity. At 4-5, this is still a must-win game for the Ravens, and the Browns' 29th-ranked offense will be unable to keep up. Baltimore has the Jets next week, but that is their last easy game on the schedule, making this the perfect opportunity to pull the trigger.
New England Patriots (-12.5) Over New York Jets
The Patriots are the biggest favorite of the week and will certainly be a popular pick against the New York Jets. However, this is a divisional matchup, and the Jets have won two in a row. That being said, the Patriots are still a very confident pick for this week, just slightly less than the Ravens. Drake Maye has emerged as the MVP favorite, and the Jets' pass defense will really struggle to contain him. New England still has the easiest remaining schedule this year, so there is no rush to use them if you haven’t already.
Houston Texans (-7) Over Tennessee Titans
Houston is expected to get CJ Stroud back for this one, but even Davis Mills is capable of beating the Tennessee Titans. Cam Ward hasn’t lived up to expectations, and the Titans' defense falls apart week after week. Even though they are coming off their bye, the Titans still don’t have the firepower they need to beat a team like Houston. The Texans have an easy home game against the Raiders in a few weeks, but their schedule is littered with difficult opponents the rest of the way.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) Over Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh cooled off after its hot start, but this is a great spot to use them if you haven’t already. The Steelers defense will be able to hold the Bengals to 20 or fewer points, and we can’t say the same about Cincinnati’s defensive unit. The Bengals are still without Joe Burrow, their defense is a complete disaster, and the Steelers don’t have many winnable games left on their schedule.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders
The Cowboys' offense is a very consistent unit, and a weak Raiders defense will be their next victim. Dak Prescott’s MVP-caliber play has been overlooked, but make no mistake, this is a team that we can absolutely trust to beat up on bad teams. The Raiders certainly fit in that category, and their offense will be handcuffed without Jakobi Meyers. It’s a short point spread, but that won’t matter when the Cowboys eventually run away with it. If you are looking to mix it up, take Dallas as our official contrarian pick of the week.
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) Over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bills need a win to keep pace with the surging Patriots, and they are facing the ice-cold Buccaneers at the right time. Tampa Bay’s injuries are finally catching up to them, and they will struggle on the road in upstate New York. The only easy home game left for Buffalo is against the Jets in Week 18, but depending on the playoff situation, that game might be meaningless for Buffalo. This feels like an odd time to use a team as strong as the Bills, but they are a solid pick for Week 11.
Green Bay Packers (-7) Over New York Giants
The Packers will be a very popular pick this week against Jameis Winston and the Giants, but I am not running to take them in a survivor pool. Their inconsistency on offense makes them hard to trust, as they have been held to 13 or fewer points on three different occasions this year. New York has a defense capable of stealing games, and Winston adds another variable to their offense. This one has upset potential written all over it, so while I side with the Packers, I would look elsewhere if possible.
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) Over Washington Commanders
The Commanders have lost four games in a row by 20+ points, and they are an easy fade in the survivor pool format. Even though Miami hasn’t been overly impressive itself, its offense has been consistent with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa. Washington’s abysmal defense will be helpless against Miami, and we can’t trust Marcus Mariota to keep pace with 30+ points of his own.
Chicago Bears (+3) Over Minnesota Vikings
The Bears may be underdogs this week, but they are still a solid selection against the free-falling Vikings. Chicago is playing well on both sides of the ball; they have a tough schedule in the final weeks of the season, and this is a crucial game for their playoff aspirations. It may feel controversial to take an underdog in a survivor pool, and that is because it is. However, if you haven’t used the Bears yet this season, this may be one of your last chances to do so.
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) Over Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers have been winning the close games that the Cardinals wish they could have back. There isn’t much to separate these two in terms of total yards, but the 49ers have been much better inside both red zones. They get the nod, but should only be used if all the previously mentioned teams have already been burned.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) Over Denver Broncos
The Chiefs are a strong pick against the Broncos, but fading Denver’s seven-game win streak is a recipe for disaster. The Broncos haven’t looked convincing in their wins, which is why they are home underdogs, but it is still unwise to fade them with our life on the line. Kansas City will most likely win, but with several winnable games left, it would be a mistake to use them in this spot.
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) Over Detroit Lions
The Eagles' physical brand of football will be on full display against the Lions. Detroit’s flashy offense will have its moments, but when it is all said and done, the Eagles will find a way to win. Do we want to touch either of these teams in the survivor pool format? Absolutely not. These are two strong sides facing off, which is a textbook matchup to avoid in Week 11.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) Over Carolina Panthers
I guess we will take the Falcons? Carolina just got shut down by the Saints, and gave the Falcons a recipe for success on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta has the safety talent to go one-on-one with Carolina’s receivers while piling up the tackle box to stop the run. They are the pick, but if you are touching Atlanta, given their recent form, you are probably already dead in your survivor pool.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) Over Los Angeles Chargers
We can’t trust either of these teams. Los Angeles’s fragile offensive line means they are always one play away from disaster, while the Jaguars just blew a 17-point lead against Davis Mills last week. There are many better options on the board than either of these two.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) Over Seattle Seahawks
Just no. Both teams are on four-game win streaks, and the winner goes on top of not only the NFC West but the entire NFC. Pass.
Official Pick of the Week: Baltimore Ravens Over Cleveland Browns
Contrarian Survivor Pool Pick of the Week: Dallas Cowboys Over Las Vegas Raiders
Teams Used: Denver Broncos, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions
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