NFL Totals Betting: Week 13 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 11/30/2011
For the second week in a row the oddsmakers struck a perfect balance on the total line with eight games going ‘over’ the total and eight games staying ‘under’. Unfortunately, we endured a second-straight sub-par performance with a 1-2 record on our top plays. Our year-to-date record for these free NFL picks still remains well over .500 at 22-14.
Despite the fact that the NFL lines continue to get sharper with each passing week, there is always some value to be found in the numbers as long as you know where and how to look. The following are this week’s top three picks for NFL totals betting with the total line provided by BetOnline.
Sunday, December 4
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Baltimore remains neck-and-neck with Pittsburgh in the AFC North at 8-3 with four wins in its last five games. It is ranked seventh in the league in scoring this season, but has only managed to average 21.8 points in its last four games.
Cleveland’s season has already hit the skids at 4-7 mostly due to an offense that cannot find the end zone. The Browns are ranked 28th in the NFL in scoring with an average of just 15 points a game. Their defense remains fairly stout in holding their opponents to an average of 19.6 points a game.
The total line for this game opened at 37 and has actually crept up half a point. It’s now December in Cleveland with possible rain and snow in the forecast for Sunday. Also, the total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the last eight meetings there.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Arizona Cardinals
Dallas is sensing some blood in the water with the demise of both Philadelphia and New York in the NFC East, so this game presents a chance to possibly extend its lead with a win. The calendar has turned the page, but Tony Romo and the Cowboys’ offense will look to continue their trends from November of scoring an average of 28.5 points a game.
Arizona feels confident that Kevin Kolb will be able to return to the lineup for this game. While this does not mean that the Cardinals will win this game, it could point to a more productive output on offense as the team averaged just 17.5 points a game in his absence.
The line for this game opened at 46 and has slid down slightly to 45.5, which is a good sign. The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of the Cowboys last 11 games on the road and in 11 of their last 15 games as favorites. The total has also gone ‘over’ in five of the Cardinals last six home games.
Monday, December 5
San Diego Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
San Diego comes into this prime-time matchup reeling from six-straight losses that pretty much assure it will miss the postseason for the second-straight year. During this slide, Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ offense have averaged just 21.5 points a game.
Jack Del Rio may be gone as head coach, but that will do little to improve a Jacksonville offense that is ranked last in the NFL in total yards and points. The only bright spot on this team is a defense that has held its opponents to just 18.2 points a game.
The line opened at 41 and has dipped down to 39 over the last few days. While we normally do not like chasing the public’s betting trends, the sharps could have a hand in this much of a drop. The total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of the Chargers last 10 games on Monday night. It has also stayed ‘under’ in 10 of the Jaguars 11 games this season. Trends like these make my Monday Night Football predictions easy.
Allen Eastman is on a roll for his NFL picks. His incredible 411 System, the top NFL betting system in the nation, is on a 5-1-1 run the last few weeks and it is 81-47-4 the last four years overall. He will have a 7-Unit Game of the Year on his weekend card this week and a one-week package is only $99. Also, check his Insider’s Page HERE for free sports picks daily.
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