The Week in Baseball Betting By the Numbers
by Robert Ferringo - 6/21/2011
The game of baseball is an allegory of pre-industrial America and is the elemental sport in our national consciousness. However, it is also a very sophisticated mathematical construct, a symphony of statistics and a physical interpretation of integers that create the foundation of the sport. Baseball is a perfect dichotomy and every action within its natural framework - from pitch selections to hitting matchups to player positioning – is dictated by the digits.
To be a winning baseball bettor you need to understand these numbers. You need to immerse yourself in these integers and really get at the core of how things are developing on the diamond.
Each week we will take a quick trip around the fringes of the Major Leagues and look at some of the numbers that are at work on the diamond. From quirky to critical, these are all numbers at the core of the sport that dominates the summer betting boards.
With that in mind, here is a look at this week’s Baseball Betting By the Numbers:
6 – Max number of weeks that the Cardinals expect to be without Albert Pujols. Look for them to get a little bump forward – fueled by adrenaline – in the first week that he’s gone. But after a week or two that will wear off and the reality of playing without one of the league’s best players will set in for this fragile team.
7.26 – ERA for Chad Billingsley over the course of his last six starts. The erstwhile Dodgers ace is a perfect illustration of the fact that the Dodgers starting pitching has hit the skids. L.A. had finished in the Top 10 in team ERA in four of the last five years, and in the Top 10 in starters ERA in the last three years. However, they are currently No. 22 in team ERA and No. 20 in starters ERA.
13 – Number of runs of support that Ricky Romero has received in the nine losses the Jays have accrued in his starts. Toronto is 6-9 in his 15 outings this year and, not surprisingly, Romero then called out his lineup (well, anyone not named “Bautista” or “Lind”). We’ll see how this plays out, especially considering that the Blue Jays are fourth in the A.L. in runs scored.
55 – Percentage of games this year where the Orioles have scored four runs or fewer.
26 – Millions of dollars the O’s spent this offseason to pick up Vlad Guerrero, J.J. Hardy, Derek Lee and Mark Reynolds.
75 – Percent of interleague starts won by Mark Buehrle. He is 24-6 in his last 30 interleague starts, making him one of the best bets in the business.
1200 – Dollars that a $100 bettor would have earned so far this year by backing Jason Marquis in his 14 starts. The Nationals are 11-3 on the season in the 14 outings that their “ace” has made. This roll has come just one year after Marquis went 2-9 with a 6.60 ERA in 13 starts.
1200 – Dollars that a $100 bettor would have lost so far this year by backing Ubaldo Jimenez in his 13 starts. The Rockies are 3-10 on the season in the 13 outings that their “ace” has made, just one year after he went 19-8 and was nearly unhittable for most of the year.
4 – Number of ballparks that average 10 or more combined runs per game this year. Texas, Boston, Colorado and Toronto all average 10.0 runs or more in their home games this season.
10 – Number of ballparks that averaged 10 or more combined runs per game back in 2006. Just another example of how the lack of steroids has had a major impact on scoring in the Major Leagues.
7 – Times during Florida’s recent 11-game losing streak where the team scored one run or less.
52.6 – Percent of Florida’s losses this month that have come by one run. The Marlins started the year 14-5 in one-run games, but they have gone 0-10 since that point. And that, my friends, is statistical regression at its finest.
8 – Number of presidential administrations that Jack McKeon has managed an MLB game under. For those of you keeping track, that means that he filled out his first lineup card while Richard Nixon was still in the White House. Nixon.
30,000,000 – Approximate amount of the Los Angeles Dodgers payroll due on June 30. It has been reported that current owner Frank McCourt has “no chance” of coming up with the $30 million to pay his employees and when that happens it will open the door for Major League Baseball to seize the team and put it up for sale.
8,000,000 – Dollars of that $30 million June 30 payroll that is due to Manny Ramirez.
.690 – The winning percentage of the American League in Interleague Play last weekend. That came after the A.L. was just .500 against the Senior Circuit through the opening wave of IL play this year. The American League is presently 47-34 (.580) this year against the National League.
6.17 – ERA for Cleveland “ace” Fausto Carmona. That is the worst ERA in the Majors for any qualifying starting pitcher. Cleveland is 6-10 in his 16 starts this year and, I gotta say, I have no idea how they have won six games with that dude on the mound.
67 – Number of RBI this year for Adrian Gonzalez. That includes the three that he racked up on Monday against his former team, San Diego, in a 14-5 demolition. Gonzalez is also batting .353 and is pretty much dominating right now. Poor Padres.
70 – Points of OPS difference between current Braves shortstop Alex Gonzalez and former Braves shortstop Yunel Escobar. Escobar, who was traded last summer, has been playing well and made his return to Turner Field this week. Naturally, despite all mathematical logic, local media have been reporting the story as if the Braves are much better off without Escobar because the current players “like” Gonzalez more.
Robert Ferringo is a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. He is considered one of the top MLB handicappers in the country and has turned a profit in four of the last five years on the diamond with his baseball picks. He closed 2010 with $6,000 in earnings over the last four months and is looking forward to continuing his exceptional earnings.
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