Looking Back at the Week in College Football Betting
by Trevor Whenham - 9/17/2012
We’re back for another week of looking back at the college football week that was from a betting perspective. This week was proof that what makes college football great is that there will always be shocks, upsets, surprises, and general craziness. Each week we’re going to look back at those shocks and surprises. We’ll see the games that made bettors feel invincible, and those that make them feel stupid. We’ll look at the highest of highs for bettors, and the lowest of lows.
There are nine games that fit the bill this week:
Penn State 34, Navy 7
For the first time all year Penn State didn’t have too much go wrong. They missed an extra point, but beyond that it was pretty smooth. It would be a mistake to get too excited about the prospects of the Nittany Lions after this one, though, because the biggest thing we learned is that Navy is really bad. They had a week off to prepare for this one, yet they looked as unprepared as when they got beaten up by Notre Dame in their opener. We don’t know anything more about Penn State than we did on Friday.
Fresno State 69, Colorado 14
Colorado has a good shot at being the worst major conference team we have seen in a long, long time. Last week they lost at home to a FCS team, but this week they found a new low. It’s bad enough that a Pac-12 team is a legitimate 14.5-point underdog heading to play a Mountain West team that isn’t Boise State. Even worse, though, is that Fresno State had wiped out the spread halfway through the first quarter. There is not a single positive thing you can say about this Colorado team. Next week at Washington State is their best look at a win. If they don’t pull that off — and chances are they won’t — then 0-12 is a very real possibility. If they don’t improve dramatically then 0-12 ATS could happen as well.
Wisconsin 16, Utah State 14
It was a thrilling finish to this game. The Badgers scored late in the third to take their first lead of the game, and Utah State missed a late field goal to come up short. Exciting. The only problem is that Wisconsin was favored by 14 and there was no reason this game should have been even remotely close. Wisconsin, 0-3 ATS, has been very hard to trust, and there are obviously a whole host of internal issues. That hasn’t changed yet.
Stanford 21, USC 14
Sometimes the strongest trends are the easiest to ignore. Stanford had beaten USC three times in a row and four of five times heading into this one, yet there weren’t more than a handful of people outside of Palo Alto who really expected the streak to continue. It continued, though, at the same time that Matt Barkley’s Heisman campaign came to a grinding halt. From a betting perspective what was most interesting to me is that Stanford had such an easy time getting to Barkley on the final drive. You can’t win without an offensive line, and USC’s was pitiful on the day. Without improvement this won’t be the last spread USC doesn’t cover, and it may not be the last game they lose.
Pitt 35, Virginia Tech 17
Every time you think you have this sport figured out a game like this comes along to humble you. Two weeks ago the Panthers got manhandled at home by Youngstown State. Last week they were crushed by Cincinnati. This week they looked invincible, and they manhandled 13th-ranked Virginia Tech like it was nothing. Tech, now 0-3 ATS, was clearly overrated. As to what this means for Pitt, though, your guess is as good as mine.
Alabama 52, Arkansas 0
We learned two things in this game. First, Arkansas is really not a good team — especially not without Tyler Wilson. At the very least, the Razorbacks are a team without a shred of heart to go with their talent. Second, Alabama is at least as good as we thought they were. Three games and not a single hint of mortality so far.
Notre Dame 20, Michigan State 3
Michigan State was favored by 4.5, so it was a very easy cover for the Irish. Going forward, though, the result leaves me more confused about both teams than ever before. Notre Dame looked very good defensively, but on offense the Irish were questionable. Everett Golson struggled to find his receivers, and the running game wasn’t explosive. The defensive positivity is tempered somewhat by the fact that Michigan State, again, looked mostly inept on offense. So, how good is Notre Dame? How about Michigan State? We have big puzzles coming up for both teams — the Irish against Michigan next week, and the Spartans hosting the Buckeyes the week after.
Utah 24, BYU 21
The Holy War was thrilling this year, but that’s just expected in this rivalry. The result wasn’t a huge upset — the Utes were only 3.5-point underdogs. The outcome taught us a whole lot about the Utah, though. They were hosting a very good team just one week after their QB and leader, Jordan Wynn, had been forced to quit football. That could have given them an excuse to quit — or at least to perform at a substandard level. Instead, they let it motivate them. This is a team with a whole lot of heart and determination. When it’s a close call in their games down the road, that heart could put them over the top.
Florida State 52, Wake Forest 0
The Seminoles have allowed just three points in three games. They have scored 176. Impressive. Also completely meaningless. They have played Murray State, Savannah State, and Wake Forest. If that’s not the weakest schedule in the country it’s certainly in the ballpark. We know the team is solid, but assuming anything else beyond that is an instant formula for overvaluing them.
Doc’s Sports wants to give you a great offer to try out our expert college football handicappers for free with no obligation, no credit card required and no salesman ever! These are the same college football picks that our clients receive from any of our Advisory Board handicappers and you can get $60 in picks credit in minutes. Click here for more details and to take advantage of this free $60 picks credit today.
Most Recent College Football Handicapping
- Bowl Game Schedule - College Football Bowl Schedules for 2019-2020
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Big Bowl Game Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Bowl Game Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Championship Week Opening Line Report and Picks
- College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Dec. 12-13
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 15 Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 14 Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 13 Opening Line Report and Picks
- NCAA Football Betting Predictions: Week 12 Opening Line Report and Picks
- College and NFL Football Biggest Line Moves for Nov. 14-15