We have come to the final week of the inaugural season in the American Athletic Conference, and four teams have already qualified for a bowl (Central Florida, Louisville, Cincinnati and Houston), and two others (Rutgers and SMU) need one more victory to become eligible. I am guaranteed a winning season with my AAC ‘pick of the week’ with a 10-4 record in the first 14 weeks, but my year-to-date unit total took a hit when this past Friday’s Houston vs. SMU game stayed “under” the total.

The 3-Unit setback using Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System lowered my year-to-date total to +23 units, which equates to a profit of $2,180 on a $100-per-unit bet. My goal was to deliver a $1,000 profit on my AAC picks over the course of the entire season, so it is hard to complain about that loss.

The following is a brief betting report for all the Week 15 games in the AAC as well as my top pick of the week. All the lines quoted have been provided by 5Dimes.

Thursday, Dec. 5

No. 19 Louisville Cardinals (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats  
Total Line: 51.5

Louisville has only one straight up loss on the year against 10 wins, but since it was to Central Florida in the conference, it will end up costing the Cardinals an outright AAC title and BCS Bowl berth. They are a costly 4-7 against the spread but a solid play on the total line with nine of the 11 games staying under the total. Louisville is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games against Cincinnati.

The Bearcats still have a shot at claiming a share of the AAC title with a win on Thursday coupled with a Central Florida loss to SMU on Saturday. They come into this game 9-2 SU overall and 6-1 SU in conference play. Cincinnati is averaging 314.7 passing yards a game while scoring an average of 34.2 points. The defense is ranked 10th in the nation in points allowed (18.5), and it has only given up more than 20 points in four of 11 games.

Saturday, Dec. 7

No. 16 Central Florida Knights vs. SMU Mustangs OFF    
Total Line: OFF

UCF is in the driver’s seat in the AAC at a perfect 7-0 SU. It has had a number of close calls this season as a favorite, but the net result has always been a SU win. The Knights are 10-1 SU overall with a 7-4 record ATS. Coming into this season finale, their offense is scoring 34.6 points a game to complement a defense that has held teams to 20.2 points a game this year.

The Mustangs’ offense was shut out last week against Houston with quarterback Garrett Gilbert on the shelf with a knee injury. He remains questionable for this Saturday, which continues to have an impact on the lines for this game. SMU’s offense has averaged 351.1 passing yards and 28 points a game, but the defense has given up an average of 34.8 points.

Memphis Tigers (-1) vs. Connecticut Huskies  
Total Line: 43

The Tigers have just one SU victory in the AAC this season and an overall record of 3-8 SU. They are coming off a 41-21 loss to Temple as eight-point home favorites that dropped them to 6-5 ATS. The total went “over” the 49-point totals line after staying under in their previous three games. Memphis is averaging just 20.4 points a game but holding teams to an average of 22.7 points.

The Huskies lost their first nine games this season SU, but they have shown signs of life the past two weeks with back-to-back victories over Temple and Rutgers. They were 2.5-point home underdogs in the 28-17 victory over the Scarlet Knights. Connecticut is 4-7 ATS overall and 3-3 ATS at home. The total has stayed under in four of the last five home games.

AAC Pick of the Week

South Florida Bulls vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-6)   
Total Line: 46.5

South Florida came dangerously close to pulling off the biggest upset in the AAC this season in a 23-20 loss to Central Florida this past Friday as a 27.5-point road underdog. The loss dropped the Bulls to 2-9 SU overall and 2-5 SU in conference play. Look for the hangover from this heart-breaking defeat to carry over into this game, especially on an offense that is averaging just 14.5 points a game.

This has been a disappointing campaign for Rutgers after starting the season with serious aspirations of competing for the AAC title. The only solace to a 5-6 SU mark heading into this season finale would be one more win to send the Scarlet Knights to a bowl game. For the most part they have been able to beat the teams they were supposed to. Behind an offense that has doubled up the Bulls this season in scoring, they should have no problem covering the six points at home. Rutgers is 6-2 both SU and ATS in this series.

3-Unit Play Take Rutgers (-6) vs. South Florida (Saturday, Dec. 7, 7:30 p.m.)

Year to Date Record:  10-4 (+ 23units +$2,180)

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Read more articles by Dave Schwab