Heat vs. Pacers Series Predictions and Props Odds
by George Monroy - 5/21/2013
The Miami Heat escaped their series with the Chicago Bulls relatively unscathed and continue to be a healthy ball club focused on winning another title. The team has only lost one game in the postseason but should receive a stiff challenge against an Indiana Pacers club that held a 2-1 lead and took them to six games during last year’s playoffs. The Heat are a substantial favorite to beat the Pacers and make a third straight finals appearance, but that does not mean this series won’t be competitive or that bettors won’t have plenty of opportunities to wager on both sides of the matchup.
Let’s take a closer look at the Heat versus Pacers Eastern Conference finals matchup and go over the possible wagers that gamblers can make on the series with some betting predictions.
Heat: -700 (Sportsbook.ag)
Indiana is a big team that plays tough defense and can rebound, which at times has been Miami’s worst type of matchup. However, the truth here is that the Pacers have very little chance at stopping the Heat in a seven-game series. Miami won’t roll over the Pacers like many people will predict, but they are just a better team and will not lose this series. Basketball can be a superstar-driven game, and Miami simply has the best player in the league. There is very little value in wagering on the Pacers at +500. If you have the bankroll to support it, betting on Miami is a very solid wager to make.
Exact Games Prop
Heat in four: +200
Pacers in four: +10000
Heat in five: +110
Pacers in five: +5000
Heat in six: +500
Pacers in six: +2000
Heat in seven: +600
Pacers in seven: +2500
According to the lines, the oddsmakers are expecting Miami to win in either four or five games, which is a bit dismissive of Indiana. The Heat are playing in the NBA Playoffs and are not going against a bunch of D-leaguers. The Pacers were the third-seed in the East and are one of the better teams in the entire NBA. Miami may be a great team, but great teams lose in the playoffs all the time, and that’s not even mentioning that they nearly lost two games to the undermanned-and-injury-plagued Chicago Bulls. The line with the best value seems to be the Heat in six games at +500.
Game 1 Lines
Heat: -8, moneyline:-420
Pacers: +8, moneyline: +330
The Pacers have an 8-4 postseason ATS record as compared to the Heat’s 6-3 record. Both teams have been covering spreads at the same rate, and the only difference is that Miami has not been an underdog once this postseason. As a bettor, it’s so much easier to wager on the favorite, but during this series Indiana will cover spreads. I’d advise gamblers to keep an eye on the Pacers plus the points, as those lines seem to have a lot of value — especially if they are going to stay around eight points.
Player to Score the First Points
LeBron James: +350
Dwyane Wade: +500
Paul George: +600
David West: +700
Chris Bosh: +700
George Hill: +750
Mario Chalmers: +800
Roy Hibbert: +850
Lance Stephenson: +1000
Udonis Haslem: +1800
These bets are always a shot in the dark because even if the odds are likely that LeBron James will take the first shot, a miss and a tip in can change everything. Each of the top six lines on this list has excellent value and a decent shot at winning the wager. Chris Bosh and David West seem to have the best value, as they will both be near the basket and ready to scoop up the round on a missed shot and could easily put it back up for the first score of the game.
Read more articles by George Monroy
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