MLB Handicapping: Hot/Cold Pitchers and Hitters Betting Report
by Ricky Dimon - 7/8/2013
Tampa Bay is failing to make up ground on division-leading Boston, but the Rays have done extremely well to stay within striking distance. Both teams are 8-2 in their last 10 games and Tampa has won four in a row. A big reason for recent success is Matt Moore, who is so good right now that even allowing a single run can be considered a disappointment. The Yankees are also hanging around in the American League East, thanks in large part to Robinson Cano.
Pitchers – Hot
Homer Bailey (Reds) – Bailey has not exactly been consistently on fire, but anyone who has thrown two no-hitters since the last time anyone else hurled one deserves a mention. The Reds’ righty blanked San Francisco in both the runs and hits categories last Tuesday while striking out nine hitters and walking only one. Cincinnati (Bailey) is a -140 road favorite against Milwaukee (Kyle Lohse) on Monday night.
Matt Moore (Rays) – After shutting out the White Sox over 6.1 innings on Saturday, Moore has gone two straight outings without allowing a run (13.1 innings of work). He has given up only one run in his last 20 innings. Moore also has 26 strikeouts in his last three starts. The Rays have won his last four starts and he has recorded the win in all four.
Jered Weaver (Angels) – Weaver has been on fire in his last three starts, which feature similar stat lines: seven innings, one run, six strikeouts; seven innings, one run, five strikeouts; and 6.1 innings, no runs, six strikeouts on Sunday night against the Red Sox. In his last three appearances he has 17 Ks to just four walks and he has not allowed a homer.
Pitchers – Cold
Yovani Gallardo (Brewers) – In his last three outings, Gallardo has not lasted more than six innings or allowed fewer than three earned runs. Last Monday at Washington, he surrendered nine hits and eight runs in a mere three innings of work. This has come out of nowhere for Gallardo, who had given up a total of zero earned runs in his three previous starts.
Drew Pomeranz (Rockies) – To say Pomeranz’s season is off to a rough start would be a bit of an understatement. In two appearances, the 25-year-old has yielded 12 hits, a ridiculous nine walks, and nine runs in just 8.1 innings. The Rockies have been outscored a combined 16-3 in Pomeranz’s starts, obviously losing both games. Colorado is +1200 to win the National League pennant.
Jeremy Bonderman (Mariners) – Bonderman walked five and gave up six runs in a 13-4 loss at Cincinnati on Saturday. Seattle’s veteran righty has surrendered 10 earned runs in his last two starts, a span of 8.1 innings. Bonderman has gone four straight outings with at least as many walks as strikeouts. His last recorded win came six starts ago on June 7.
Hitters – Hot
Brian McCann (Braves) – The Braves are borderline frigid right now, but McCann is getting on well enough…to say the least. Atlanta’s catcher has hit safely in eight straight games and a whopping seven of those have been of the multi-hit variety. In his last eight, McCann has 19 hits, six doubles, two home runs, seven RBI, and nine runs scored.
Kyle Seager (Mariners) – Seager is in the midst of a seven-game hitting streak and four of those seven have been multi-hit performances (including a pair of three-hit outings). Seattle’s third baseman has three dingers, seven RBI, and eight runs scored in this current stretch. In his last five, Seager has drawn three walks without striking out.
Robinson Cano (Yankees) – New York is struggling to keep pace with rival Boston in the AL East, but it is no fault of Cano. The lefty slugger has hit safely in eight of his last 10 games, with six of those eight featuring multiple hits. In his last 10 outings, Cano has 16 hits, four homers, 12 RBI, and nine runs scored. He is +15000 to lead the majors in homers this season.
Hitters – Cold
Buster Posey (Giants) – The Giants are a shocking 2-11 in their last 13 contests and now 6.5 games back of Arizona in the NL West. Posey has been a mess. San Fran’s catcher is hitting just .136 in his last seven games. In his last six, he has zero extra-base hits, zero RBI, and zero runs scored.
J.J. Hardy (Orioles) – Hardy is mired in a similar slump to Posey’s. Baltimore’s shortstop has crossed the plate once in his last seven games, he has no RBI in his last nine, and he has not left the yard in his last 15. That Hardy is still batting .251 with 15 dingers and 46 RBI shows just how precipitous the descent has been. The Orioles are +800 to win the AL Pennant and +1500 to win the World Series.
Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins) – Miami is last in Major League Baseball in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, and runs scored. The rest of the team is so bad that it appears to be dragging Stanton down to its level. Stanton has no home runs or RBI in his last eight games, one extra-base hit in his last nine, and no runs scored in his last five.
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