NBA Handicapping: Good Bet-Bad Bet for the Indiana Pacers
by George Monroy - 2/27/2013
The Indiana Pacers are one of those ATS teams that might be flying under a sports bettor’s radar. They do not have any superstar players or a high-profile coach, and they simply get overlooked because they play in a small market. The general public may not have noticed yet, but the Pacers have one of the best ATS records in the league and are covering around 58 percent of their spreads. The team in currently second in the east by a full game, and, because they are locked in a tight playoff race, they should continue to cover spreads for the remainder of the season.
Since Indiana has been such a solid bet all year, let’s take a closer look at their ATS record in this edition of good bet, bad bet.
Good Bet: Indiana Pacers as an Against the Spread favorite
The Pacers are 24-11 as an ATS favorite and are covering an astounding 68 percent of their games. The team has been winning sports bettors savvy enough to bet them $34 for every $100 wagered on them. The Pacers are a team that the public normally does not run out and bet, so sportbooks are less inclined to move their lines around and inflate their spreads. Wagering on Indiana as an ATS favorite is as solid of a proposition that you can find in the NBA at the moment.
(Note: all profit margins are calculated using a -105 vig from 5Dimes).
Bad Bet: Pacers as an ATS underdog
The Pacers have struggled to cover spreads and an underdog this entire season. The team currently has a 9-13 record as an ATS underdog and is only covering 40 percent of their lines. Overall, Indiana has been an underdog in roughly 38 percent of their games. Wagering on the Pacers as an ATS underdog would definitely be considered a bad bet, especially because they are doing so well in other areas. The team has been losing bettors $23 for every $100 wagered on them as an ATS underdog.
Good Bet: Pacers at home
The Paces are covering spreads at a solid rate when at home. The team has a 19-10 home ATS record and has been winning bettors $28 for every $100 wagered on them. Having a good home ATS record is not necessarily a given, since many NBA teams receive larger-than-usual lines when playing at home and fail to cover them on a regular basis. The Pacers are a very good home ATS team, and sports bettors would be wise to try and take advantage of it.
Bad Bet: Pacers on the Road
The Pacers are simply a poor road team any way you look at it: ATS or straight up. The team has a 14-14 road ATS record, which is not horrendous, but it does not really show any value either. Betting on the Pacers to cover a spread on the road is closer to a coin-flip than to a smart, educated bet. I would advise to stay away from the Pacers on the road altogether. There are so many other spots to get excellent value on a wager, and Indiana on the road is not one of them.
Good Bet: Pacers as a favorite of four points or less
The Pacers have been excellent in more than a few ATS areas, but the one area where they have shown the best value is a small favorite of four points or less. The team has been a four-point-or-fewer favorite 11 times this season and has covered nine of those games. The Pacers have seen lines of four points or less around a third of the time that they are a favorite, and have been covering those spreads at an 81-percent rate.
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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