NBA Playoffs: Ranking the Home ATS Records of the Bottom-Seeded Teams
by George Monroy - 4/25/2013
The NBA Playoffs will be shifting gears over the next few days as the bottom-seeded teams each have a chance to defend their home court and get back into their respective matchups or even take a 2-1 series lead in some cases. The Chicago Bulls and Golden State Warriors managed to even up their matches by controlling Game 2 and stealing any momentum their opponents had after the first game of the series. The Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics are simply hoping to win a game at home and get back into their matchups before it is too late.
For basketball bettors, the only issue that matters is finding teams that can cover spreads. If the Milwaukee Bucks get swept out of the first round but cover the majority of their spreads at home, backers will move on to the second round happy and content about the Bucks playoff performance. There might not be many upsets in the first round, but a few of the bottom-seeded teams have a legitimate chance at covering spreads over the next two games. Let’s take a quick look at the home ATS records of the bottom-seeded teams and rank them from the best to worst.
4) Los Angeles Lakers: 19-21-1, 47.5 percent - the Lakers are a below-.500 ATS home team and are probably going to be swept out of the playoffs without covering a single spread. Once the series shifts to Los Angeles, the Lakers will be a small underdog but still have trouble covering a spread.
3) Memphis Grizzlies: 22-18, 55 percent - the Grizzlies were able to cover their spread during Game 2 against the Clippers and will probably split the next two games at home by covering one spread. Memphis is a solid home ATS team, but expecting them to win both games against a very good Clippers team is asking a lot. The Grizzlies are a 4.5-point favorite heading into Game 3, according to the Sportsbook.ag lines.
2) Golden State Warriors: 23-18, 56.1 percent - the Warriors are heading back home with a tied up series and a 2-0 ATS lead. The team has an excellent 23-18 home ATS record and are a one-point favorite heading into Game 3. This is a matchup that will probably go back-and-forth, so expect Golden State to cover only one spread over the next two games.
1) Houston Rockets: 24-17, 58.5 percent - Houston played a much better Game 2 against the Thunder and were only down by a point with under two minutes left in the game. The Rockets have the best home ATS record of the lower-seeded teams and should be able to cover at least one spread over the next two games. Houston will probably not be a favorite in either Game 3 or Game 4, so wagering on them plus points might not be a bad idea.
4) Chicago Bulls: 13-28, 31.7 percent - the Bulls split the first two games against the Nets and are heading back to Chicago with a 1-1 ATS record. The Bulls have a horrendous ATS home record and are currently a 3.5-point favorite over the Nets. The team will probably split the next two games but could have trouble covering either one of them.
3) Atlanta Hawks: 14-25-2, 35.9 percent - Atlanta couldn’t cover a spread against the Pacers and lost both games by double-digits. The Hawks are simply not a good home ATS team, but they have a chance to win, and cover, at least one game in this series.
2) Milwaukee Bucks: 16-25, 39 percent - the Bucks were able to cover their Game 2 spread against the Heat, not because they were playing better, but because the spread was so large. The Bucks are currently a 7.5-point underdog heading to Game 3 and will probably lose by double-digits again. Expect Miami to win and cover both of the next two games.
1) Boston Celtics: 21-17-2, 55.3 percent - the Celtics couldn’t cover either of their spreads in New York, but they will have a significantly better chance in Boston. The Knicks will probably not sweep the Celtics and will drop one of the next two games. Boston is currently a three-point favorite heading into Game 3 and could win the next game based off of muscle-memory alone.
Read more articles by George Monroy
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