This Week in MLB Baseball Betting By the Numbers
by Aaron Smith - 5/29/2013
Two months into this year’s MLB season, and it is the St. Louis Cardinals with the best record in baseball. The Cardinals are 34-17 and putting on quite a show for their fans. Heading into the season, everyone knew the Cardinals had a terrific lineup. However, few could have guessed that the Cardinals would have the best team ERA in baseball at this point in the year. To say that the young starters for St. Louis have been great this year is a major understatement.
It’s all interleague action this week, which means there are lots of intrastate and even intercity rivalries on the field. The home and home back-to-back series is something new for the game, and it should be popular with fans.
Who would have guessed that the best three records in baseball would all come from the same division two months into the year? The Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates are really setting up for a nice battle at the top of the NL Central.
Baseball is a numbers-driven game, and keeping track of the data can put you one step ahead of most bettors. Here is a look at some important numbers to keep an eye on when betting on baseball in the week ahead.
0- The Arizona Diamondbacks are 10-0 in the 10 games that Patrick Corbin has started so far this year. Most people knew Corbin was going to be good, but no one saw this utter domination coming so quickly! With Corbin pitching the way he is, it’s no wonder the Diamondbacks lead the NL West.
1- The return of Jered Weaver should make Mike Scioscia one very relieved manager. While Scioscia is still on the hot seat, getting a true No. 1 starter back should help the Angels quite a bit. In hindsight, the Angels pitching staff as a whole was probably overrated in the preseason. Other than Weaver (who has been injured almost all year), the Angels really don’t have another guy who is better than a No. 3 or 4 starter at this point.
6- The Pittsburgh Pirates are 6-0 in Jeanmar Gomez’s starts this year. Gomez only joined the rotation because the Pirates had some injury problems and needed someone to fill in. This is a classic example of, “Look what we found!” The Pirates have found a lot of nice players to fill in the holes so far this season.
7- The Cincinnati Reds have lost seven straight games against the Indians in Cleveland. The Reds enter Wednesday and Thursday’s games as one of the hottest teams in baseball, but Cleveland has had a way of cooling them down in the past.
11- The Oakland Athletics haven’t had any luck when playing at AT&T Park in San Francisco. Oakland is 1-11 in their last 12 games against the Giants in San Francisco. Thursday’s game will pit Barry Zito against his old team in what should be an interesting matchup.
17- Chris Davis leads all of baseball with 17 home runs this season. Davis is in the middle of an amazing breakout season for the Orioles. He has three home runs more than anyone else in baseball. Behind Davis’ lead, the Orioles are second in the big leagues in runs scored per contest.
22- The “over” is 22-8-1 in the Blue Jays last 31 games. Jose Bautista is heating up, and Edwin Encarnacion is racking up the RBI once again. Toronto might not get back in the AL East race, but this team is going to score plenty of runs between now and the end of the season.
38- The Texas Rangers are 38-15 in Derek Holland’s last 53 starts. You have to wonder how much longer Holland is going to be underrated by the oddsmakers. Holland has very quietly become one of the most reliable left-handed pitchers in the American League.
71- The home team is 71-32 in umpire Mike Muchlinski’s last 103 games behind home plate. That fits perfectly into the definition of a “homer” in my book! Short-term runs like this can be discounted as unimportant, but over the course of 103 games the home team shouldn’t win 71 times. Be very wary of taking the road team if you see Muchlinski behind the dish.
1122- The amount that $100 per game moneyline bettors who have backed the Cardinals in each of their road games this year are now up for the season. St. Louis has been great everywhere so far this year, but where they have really made their mark is on the road. The Cardinals are 20-9 away from home so far this season.
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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