This Week in MLB Baseball Betting By the Numbers
by Aaron Smith - 4/15/2013
Opening Day is now two weeks old, and the baseball season is up and running in full swing. A winning season can’t be made in the course of two weeks, but bad betting habits can go a long way toward making the season a failure in two weeks if you aren’t doing your homework.
The Atlanta Braves came out of the blocks faster than anyone else. Atlanta has a dangerous combination of hitting power and pitching depth that could make them a really tough team to beat all season. Miami and San Diego have stumbled out of the blocks, and it should be a very long season for both of those clubs.
San Diego has been in the news for all the wrong reasons of late. Carlos Quentin charged the mound and hurt the Dodgers Zack Greinke last week. Don Mattingly is really ticked off (and who can blame him?), so don’t think for a minute that this will be the last we hear of the Padres vs. Dodgers battle. Watch out for a battle in Los Angeles early this week. Also, watch out for Matt Kemp to blow up as he looked like a man possessed after last week’s fight.
Baseball is a numbers-driven game, and keeping track of the data can put you one step ahead of most bettors. Here is a look at some important numbers to keep an eye on when betting on baseball in the week ahead.
0- There are plenty of reasons why zero is an important number surrounding Barry Zito’s performance of late. The San Francisco Giants are 7-0 in Barry Zito’s last seven road starts. They are 8-0 in Zito’s last eight starts following a quality start in his previous appearance. In addition, Zito has given up zero runs in his two starts this year. Zito will be 35 years old next month. Who said a crafty left-hander couldn’t reinvent himself in the latter stages of his career?
1- Classic call of the Padres vs. Dodgers battle by Vin Scully. Scully may be 85 years old, but he is still one of the top sports broadcasters in the world. How could one describe Matt Kemp’s outburst regarding what had just happened in the brawl? Scully was quoted as saying, “That’s fertilizer says Kemp over and over.” Leave it to an 85 year old man to come up with a brilliant way to describe an expletive-laced outburst! You’re the man Vin!
7- The Colorado Rockies have won seven straight games at Coors Field. They host the New York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks this week. The weather forecast calls for some snow early in the week, so don’t be surprised if there are some delays or cancellations in Denver.
9- The Milwaukee Brewers have failed to cover the run line in nine of their first 11 games this year. $100 bettors have lost $919 betting on the Brewers run line in each game this season. It’s amazing how far the Brewers have fallen from just a couple years ago.
11- The “over” is 11-1 in the Oakland Athletics first 12 games this year. Yoenis Cespedes and Scott Sizemore are on the disabled list, and Coco Crisp is out with a strained groin. Oakland’s offense isn’t going to stay in the Top 5 in the majors for long. Don’t let this 11-1 run toward the over fool you; this Athletics team is still going to play a lot of low-scoring games.
64- The Texas Rangers are an impressive 64-24 in their last 88 games following a loss. There isn’t another team in the league with such amazing numbers when it comes to bouncing back from a loss. Look for spots to play the Rangers coming off a loss for some good value.
78- The New York Yankees are 78-35 in their last 113 Interleague home games. They’ll host the Arizona Diamondbacks for three games at Yankee Stadium starting Tuesday. Arizona is 10-25 in their last 35 Interleague road games against a team with a winning record. Don’t be afraid to look for a spot to back the Yankees in this series.
307- The Detroit Tigers have a team batting average of .307 through the first two weeks of the season. To say that the Tigers offense is raking right now is a major understatement. The Tigers team batting average is more than 100 points higher than that of Tampa Bay, Miami, and Pittsburgh.
1,079- The amount of money $100 per game bettors have made betting on the Atlanta Braves moneyline so far this season. The Braves have lapped the field in this regard. Oakland has been the second most profitable team to beat on each game this year at $535.
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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