This Week in MLB Betting By the Numbers
by Aaron Smith - 8/19/2013
How good have the Los Angeles Dodgers been of late? It has become big news when the team loses. As a baseball team, if it is big news when you lose one game, you know you are on an amazing run. The Dodgers 42-8 run in 50 games was one of the best in baseball history. Their 3-2 loss at Philadelphia on Sunday made all the sports headlines, but they now have the second-best record in the National League.
The National League Central looks like a division where the drama will go all the way down to the final weekend. Pittsburgh leads the division by a single game over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cincinnati Reds are just 2.5 games back. The Reds play Pittsburgh in six of their last nine games this year. All three of these teams may make the playoffs, but who comes out on top in the NL Central is very important for the purpose of home-field advantage.
Baseball is a numbers-driven game, and keeping track of the data can put you one step ahead of most bettors. Here is a look at some important numbers to keep an eye on when betting on baseball in the week ahead.
0- The Baltimore Orioles are 6-0 in Miguel Gonzalez’s last six home starts against a team with a winning record. He’ll start at home on Tuesday against the Tampa Bay Rays in the middle of a very important series for both teams. Baltimore is playing .500 baseball since the break, and they’ll have to get hot if they want to stick around in the AL East race.
14- The Chicago Cubs are 3-14 in their last 17 home games. The Cubs are 24-38 at home this year. They are 29-32 on the road. Some statistics just don’t make much sense, and this one fits into that category. All I can tell you is if the Cubs can’t win at Wrigley Field, where the home crowd support is always very good, then they simply aren’t a good team.
18- Max Scherzer easily leads the majors with 18 wins so far in 2013. Scherzer has been the Tigers best pitcher this year. Wondering why the Tigers are so highly thought of by the oddsmakers? This is no longer a pitching staff with Justin Verlander and a bunch of question marks.
19- The New York Yankees are 19-7 in their last 26 games against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankees are 36-15 in their last 51 home games against the Blue Jays. Some believe the Yankees big win at Fenway Park on the Sunday Night Baseball big stage will propel them to a hot streak. This is their opportunity, and they really need to get it going right away.
27- The St. Louis Cardinals are 27-11 in their last 38 games against the Milwaukee Brewers. They start a three-game series against the Brewers on Monday night. Milwaukee isn’t even close to the same team without Ryan Braun in the lineup. Can the Cardinals take advantage and move to the top of the NL Central?
32- The “under” is 32-8-5 in the last 43 meetings between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Cincinnati Reds in Cincinnati. Tuesday night’s pitching matchup is one of the best in baseball this week. Patrick Corbin will take on Tony Cingrani in what should be a very entertaining game. These two will be two of the best lefties in the league for many years to come, so this is a preview of two top young pitchers.
106- The Boston Red Sox are 106-46 in their last 152 interleague games. Needless to say, the Red Sox have to be glad to see some more interleague action on their schedule this week. Boston heads to the left coast to take on the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers this week.
285- The Los Angeles Dodgers are listed at +285 to win the World Series, according to odds from Bookmaker. They are now officially the World Series favorites, just ahead of the Detroit Tigers. It was only a matter of time after the Dodgers got on such a ridiculously hot run. Who would want to step in front of that train right now?
600- The Pittsburgh Pirates are listed at +600 to win the National League Pennant according to odds from Bookmaker. The Pirates are tied for the second-best record in the National League right now, but this number tells me that oddsmakers still don’t believe in Pittsburgh. What does this team have to do to get some respect? Holding on to win the very tough NL Central would definitely garner them some serious respect from many in the industry.
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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