Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: UNLV Rebels Week 9
by Aaron Smith - 10/24/2013
The eighth edition of the college football mid-major betting report is here. This year the team in focus is the UNLV Rebels. After four straight wins, UNLV was humbled last week in Fresno. The Bulldogs controlled the game throughout. Can UNLV respond and get back on track to fight toward a bowl berth? I’ll be keeping a close eye on press conferences from the program, beat writers, as well as Twitter feeds all season long. By becoming an expert on the UNLV Rebels, I hope to show how specialization is one of the most profitable sports betting strategies.
At the end of each mid-major betting report, I’ll make a selection on that week’s game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This should allow readers to follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks. In the first two years of the mid-major report, $100 per-unit bettors were up $1,410.
Last Week’s Game
The Rebels knew they were in for a much tougher test against Fresno State, and UNLV didn’t pass the test. The Rebels were held scoreless in the second half, and the offense really never got going all game long. Fresno State rolled up 641 yards of total offense, but the Bulldogs were in no hurry once the game got out of hand. The fourth quarter went scoreless. In the end, my selection on the “over” was a loser due to the very low scoring in the second half.
Fresno State averaged 5.3 yards per rush in the game, and the Bulldogs threw for 435 yards against a UNLV secondary that had good numbers up until the last couple weeks. UNLV didn’t turn the ball over, while they were able to force Derek Carr into an interception. Unfortunately, the Rebels weren’t able to do anything offensively. UNLV gained just 294 yards in the game against a Fresno State defense that is allowing 420 yards per game for the season overall.
Shaq Murray-Lawrence ran for a 73 yard touchdown run, and he has really developed a name for himself with his long touchdown runs. Caleb Herring didn’t turn the ball over at all, but he threw for just 161 yards on 42 pass attempts.
Notes of Interest
-Tim Cornett was injured during the Fresno State game, and he is listed as “doubtful” for this week’s game. Cornett is the heart and soul of this UNLV offense, so his absence would definitely be a huge loss. Murray-Lawrence has been a great second option this year, and it looks like he’ll get plenty of chances this weekend at Nevada.
-Herring and the UNLV offense needs to hope they have a whole lot more success than they did last time they traveled to Nevada. Herring was 1-for-14 throwing the football for eight yards at Nevada two years ago. The Rebels gained a measly 110 yards in total during that game. Nevada won the game, 37-0.
-Bobby Hauck said after last week’s game that the Fresno State coaching staff got the best of them in that matchup. Fresno State’s two-deep zone forced Herring into a ton of short passes, and that was something the Rebels weren’t prepared for.
-This week’s contest at Nevada is a long-time rivalry game. UNLV and Nevada square off each year for the Fremont Cannon. How big is this game in the state of Nevada? These are the only two football-playing teams in the state, and Friday is a state holiday in the Silver State.
-UNLV is 11-39-4 ATS in their last 54 road games.
-The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.
-Nevada is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.
-The “under” is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two at Nevada.
UNLV vs. Nevada College Football Odds
There has been a lot of line movement for this week’s game. Nevada opened as a 4.5 point favorite at most books, but then the line jumped to 6 and even 6.5 in some spots. UNLV money has come back in, and the line has now settled at 5 at most books. The posted total opened at 67 points and has edged down to 66.5.
UNLV vs. Nevada College Football Picks
UNLV is still a team that has to prove it can win on the road. Their win at New Mexico was solid, but the Lobos are one of the worst teams in the conference. Nevada has a solid home-field advantage, and the Wolfpack have a star at quarterback in Cody Fajardo. The Wolfpack defense is terrible against the run, but being without Cornett should hurt UNLV quite a bit in this game.
Nevada’s offense creates a lot of problems for the UNLV defense. With the number at just five points, I’ll make a two-unit selection on Nevada -5 in this one.
Pick: #170- Take Nevada -5 for 2 Units
Season Results: 2 Wins 5 Losses (-0.7 Units)
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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