College Basketball Betting: Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks
by Aaron Smith - 12/15/2014
College basketball might not be the primary sport being talked about this early in the season, but there are definitely spots to make money. With so many games on a daily basis, there are always going to be some soft spots to take advantage of as a bettor.
Doc's Sports is going to test out an experiment this year on difficult/strange scheduling spot plays in college basketball. We wanted to put together a weekly article to track teams who are in difficult spots and see if fading those teams can be profitable. How will it work? We'll point out teams that are in odd spots and then suggest a 1-Unit play on that team. Since the lines are not available until the night before the game, we'll simply be recommending a play and then grading that play based on the opening line from Bookmaker. Each week we'll go back and look at the prior week's results and keep a running tally at the end of each article. This article is simply a test, and we hope it will be helpful to college basketball bettors.
Let's take a look at the first week's schedule spot fade plays.
Play #1 - Play on Old Dominion (Fade Georgia State) on Wednesday, Dec. 17
The Georgia State Panthers are a very good basketball team, but they do have some clear weaknesses. The biggest weakness they have is they lack an inside game. Georgia State is loaded with talent in the backcourt, but the frontcourt is very thin. The Panthers often get outrebounded by a large margin. What makes this a bad scheduling spot for Georgia State? They haven't played since Dec. 4, when they routed a very good Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix team. The long layoff between games isn't good for a team like Georgia State that relies so heavily on outside shooting. It's easy to be rusty after being off for that long of a time, and I think it's also a bit concerning that Georgia State won big so they are likely feeling good about themselves. Old Dominion plays tough defense, and they have already beaten several quality teams this year. I like the Monarchs chances of covering here.
Play #2 - Play on South Carolina (Fade Clemson) on Friday, Dec. 19
There are all kinds of reasons to fade the Clemson Tigers in this game. First of all, Clemson is playing in their first road game of the season. We're more than a month into this college basketball season, but Clemson has either been at home or on a neutral floor in all of their games thus far. The Tigers have already lost at home to Winthrop and Rutgers and lost on a neutral court against Gardner Webb. Clemson's schedule has been among the easiest in the country so far this year . The Tigers schedule strength ranks 327th out of out 351 Division I teams. For those unfamiliar with the area, Clemson and South Carolina definitely have a strong rivalry going, too, and Clemson blew South Carolina out last year. The Gamecocks get a chance to get revenge on Friday night. The fact that they get to deliver some revenge against a Clemson team that is untested in many different ways makes this one particularly juicy. South Carolina will be favored in this game, and we'll lay the points.
Play #3 - Play on Oklahoma (Fade Washington) on Saturday, Dec. 20
This game will be played at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Washington will come into this game unbeaten because there aren't going to lose to Grambling on Wednesday night. The Huskies have played an extremely soft schedule, though, and that makes them very vulnerable. Three times this year Washington has trailed late in the second half (Long Beach State, UTEP, and Eastern Washington), and they've been able to escape with a win. The Huskies schedule strength number comes in at 277 out of 351 teams, so they clearly haven't been pushing themselves all that hard as far as opponents go. On the other hand, Oklahoma has played Wisconsin, Butler, UCLA, Creighton, and Tulsa. The Sooners were a successful team last year, and Washington suffered through a disappointing season. While I think Washington is improved, I don't think the Huskies are as good as their record, and this large step up in competition makes this a tough spot for them.
Play #4 - Play on Vermont (Fade St. Louis) on Sunday, Dec. 21
The St. Louis Billikens played Wichita State on the road and were blown away, but they haven't played another good team all year. St. Louis is a team that has been one of the best in the Atlantic 10 in the past few years, but this year's team is nothing like that team. St. Louis has continually pulled out close wins against terrible teams even on their home floor. The Billikens needed late pushes to beat North Carolina A&T as well as SIU Edwardsville. They were beaten at home by Texas A&M Corpus Christi as well as South Dakota State. Vermont has been testing themselves all year long, and this Catamounts program has been solid for a long time. While St. Louis is playing Texas Pan American on Wednesday, Vermont will be playing against Yale. Vermont should come into this one well-prepared. I think the Catamounts win outright.
Schedule Spot Fade Plays Season Record- 0 Wins 0 Losses ($0)
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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