College Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Akron Zips Week 9
by Aaron Smith - 10/22/2014
Week 9 of the college football mid-major betting report is here. This is the fourth year Doc's Sports has offered this report. The goal of this weekly article is to try to show bettors that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. It's a strategy many of the top bettors in the world use. There are 128 FBS level teams in college football, so specialization is even more relevant in this sport than just about anywhere else.
I'm following the Akron Zips from the Mid-American Conference in every way possible this season. Akron is a program on the rise under Coach Terry Bowden. I'll be following the team on Twitter, listening to their press conferences, and reading reports from Zips beat writers to try to find information that could help me become an expert on this team. At the end of each mid-major report I'll make a selection on that game. Doc's Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
Through the first three years of doing this report, the record for the mid-major betting report selections is 18-12, and the overall profit is $1,590.
Kyle Pohl was ruled out of last week's contest against Ohio, and Akron was forced to go solely with backup quarterback Tommy Woodson. Woodson threw for 268 yards and was the team's leading rusher as well with 44 yards on the ground. Overall, he played a solid game. Woodson did throw two interceptions, though, and those proved costly. Akron turned it over three times in all. And in a game where they lost by only three points, those turnovers were the key to the game. Akron was heavily penalized once again, racking up 10 penalties for 83 yards. That's a long-term trend for this team that really needs to be broken. Ohio ended up edging Akron 23-20 in a game that was sloppy all the way around. Akron was 3-for-13 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth down in the game.
The mid-major betting report selections suffered some awful luck last week. First, the 2-Unit play on the 'under' lost by half a point. The under 42.5 was selected early in the week before most books opened the line, and the total for last week' s contest ended up jumping all the way up to 49 points by game time. Hopefully most readers who took the under were able to cash in. The Akron against the spread pick looked good as well until the Zips fumbled as they neared midfield late in the game. That turnover ended up setting up Ohio's game-winning field goal.
Notes of Interest
-Pohl was back in action on Tuesday at practice, and it appears he will play this Saturday. Coach Bowden said he still hasn't decided who will start this week at Ball State, though he did make it clear that both quarterbacks will play. Pohl said after practice, "I have felt good since the middle of last week. Just wanted to go through all the precautions. I am ready to go."
-What did Coach Bowden think of Woodson's first start at quarterback? At this week's press conference he said, "Tommy played like a redshirt freshman. He's an aggressive throwing quarterback. He runs aggressively. He makes plays, but he makes freshman mistakes. There were some things we got away with."
-Akron and Ball State have met 21 times overall, with the series record sitting at 10-10-1.
-Akron football's Twitter account retweeted a tweet from the Lou Groza Award "Perfect Watch" where they mentioned all placekickers who have made all their field goal attempts as well as extra points so far this year. Akron kicker Robert Stein was on the list. He has made all seven of his field goal attempts this year and all 14 of his extra point tries.
-Akron is 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a losing record.
-The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a loss.
-Ball State is 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
-The under is 21-5 in Akron's last 26 games overall.
-The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
Akron vs. Ball State College Football Odds
The Akron Zips opened as a one-point road favorite over Ball State in this one. There hasn't been much movement here, but the Zips are now favored by two points. The posted total opened at 49 points, but it has edged up to 50.
Akron vs. Ball State College Football Picks
Based on Bowden's comments, I'm going to assume that Pohl plays the majority of this game at quarterback for the Zips. Ball State won at Central Michigan last week, but a closer look at that box score shows the Cardinals benefited from five turnovers from the Chippewas. Ball State still has a lot of offensive problems after Keith Wenning graduated at the end of last year. The Cardinals aren't likely to be able to move the ball consistently on a solid Akron defense. I don't have any strong feelings on this game, but I do think this sets up as a sloppy and relatively low-scoring affair. The under is a 1-Unit selection for this contest.
Pick: #127- Take Akron/Ball State UNDER 50 for One Unit
Season Results: 3 Wins 4 Losses ($-380)
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