Five to Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, June 11, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/10/2014
I think we are at the point technologically in this world that every stadium built from this point on should have a retractable roof. There's just no reason there should be rainouts these days unless it's in Boston or the North Side of Chicago in a 100-year-old-plus ballpark back before they could dream of retractable roofs. The Yankees were rained out Monday night in Kansas City, so they pushed back Masahiro Tanaka's start on Tuesday in Seattle to Wednesday. That cost baseball fans the Tanaka vs. Hisashi Iwakuma matchup that everyone wanted to see. Here's a look at five interesting games on Wednesday's schedule.
Yankees at Mariners (-150, 6.5)
Tanaka leads the American League with a 2.02 ERA and is second to Toronto's Mark Buehrle in wins. Tanaka has begun his career with 12 straight quality starts, the fourth-longest such streak to start a career in MLB history. The record is 16 by Montreal's Steve Rogers in 1973. Tanaka has allowed one earned run or less in his past three starts, all New York wins. He's 5-1 with a 2.13 ERA away from Yankee Stadium. The Mariners had no reason to push back their guy, so we get Chris Young on Wednesday. He is 6-0 with a 2.84 ERA career at Seattle's Safeco Field, including 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA there this season. Ichiro Suzuki is 8-for-22 with two home runs and six walks career off Young.
Key trends: The Mariners are 4-1 in their past five Game 2s of a series. The "under" is 4-0 in Young's past four starts.
Early lean: As good as Young has been at home, the M's are great value at +150.
Cubs at Pirates (-118, 7.5)
Sometimes an injury can be a blessing in disguise. Pittsburgh lost second baseman Neil Walker to the 15-day DL on Monday due to an appendectomy. He had played in every game his season and was hitting .280 with 11 HRs and 35 RBIs. So while that's a big loss in the Pittsburgh lineup, it also opened up a spot for top prospect Gregory Polanco, and he was set to debut Tuesday. Polanco is good enough to make the type of impact rookie Wil Myers did for the Rays last year as a June call-up. Polanco will face off against Cubs righty Jason Hammel on Wednesday. He's going to be traded sooner than later. Hammel (6-3, 2.53) hasn't allowed a run over his past two starts, striking out 16, and his value will never be higher. He's 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in 2014 against Pittsburgh. The Pirates start Brandon Cumpton (1-2, 6.51). The rookie has never faced the Cubs.
Key trends: The "over" is 4-1 in Hammel's past five starts. The over is 4-0 in Cumpton's past four .
Early lean: The Cubs' totals have been going over in Hammel's starts because they've been scoring, not his bad pitching. I like Chicago here.
Braves at Rockies (+130, 10)
Colorado players are falling like flies these days, and the team is sinking in the standings. Now outfielder Michael Cuddyer, the reigning NL batting champion, is out up to two months with a fractured shoulder. He would have had solid trade value but now likely won't be back before the deadline. The Rockies also have to give lefty Tyler Matzek his big-league debut on Wednesday because highly-touted Eddie Butler went on the DL after his first major-league start Friday. Atlanta starts Julio Teheran (6-3, 1.89). The Braves have won his past four starts, in which Teheran has allowed just four total runs. He blanked Colorado over six innings on May 25.
Key trends: The Braves have lost six straight Wednesday games. Colorado has five straight Game 3s of a series. The under is 6-0 in Teheran's past six road starts against teams with a losing record.
Early lean: I understand why this is set at 10, being at Coors Field and all, but Teheran is a stud. Go under.
Dodgers at Reds (-116, 7)
The pitching matchup of the night looks to be in Cincinnati. Lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-2, 3.08) goes for L.A. He has won all four starts since returning from the DL, allowing more than two runs just once. On May 26 he allowed three runs on three hits over seven innings against the Reds. Jay Bruce has a homer off him in three at-bats. Johnny Cueto gets the call for Cincinnati. The Reds have lost three of his past four. He also pitched May 26 against L.A. and allowed four runs over 6.1 innings. Matt Kemp is 6-for-12 with two homers off him.
Key trends: The Dodgers are 8-0 in Ryu's past eight against the NL Central. The Reds are 2-8 in their past 10 against a lefty. They are 11-0 in Cueto's past 11 at home against teams with a winning record.
Early lean: Hard to ignore that last Cueto trend above. Take the Reds.
Red Sox at Orioles (-140, 9)
That Stephen Drew signing looks like wasted money for the Red Sox. They have gone in the tank since Drew made his season debut on June 2, and Drew is not only hitting just .071 but now has a strained oblique that could cost him a few games. There's actually talk the Red Sox may try to trade him, not that Drew has much value at the moment. That Red Sox lineup, with or without Drew, faces Orioles lefty Wei-Yen Chen (6-2, 4.13) on Wednesday. He faced Boston on April 21 and allowed three runs over five innings. Dustin Pedroia is 12-for-24 with six extra-base hits and five RBIs off him. Rubby De La Rosa (1-1, 2.84) starts for Boston. He hasn't faced Baltimore and barely any Orioles have ever seen him.
Key trends: The Sox have won 13 of their past 17 road games against lefties. Baltimore is 1-7 in its past eight Game 3s of a series.
Early lean: Boston likes those lefties.
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