Five to Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, May 7, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/6/2014
Some unique scheduling on Wednesday as three interleague series -- Blue Jays-Phillies, Rangers-Rockies and White Sox-Cubs, continue with their four-game set, but the series move to the opposite city starting Wednesday for the final two games. Bovada will offer live betting on four games Wednesday: Giants-Pirates, Mariners-A's, Cubs-White Sox and Yankees-Angels. Here are what I believe are five interesting matchups.
Royals at Padres (-105, 6.5)
This opened as the only "pick'em" and has the lowest total. It's two struggling offenses -- the Padres are flat-out terrible at the plate -- and two very good pitchers in the series finale. James Shields (3-3, 3.11) has for some reason been way better on the road (13-4, 2.09) than at home in since being acquired by the Royals. In fact, Shields was lit up in his last start, at home, by Detroit. Only a few Padres have faced him. Meanwhile, San Diego's Andrew Cashner (2-4, 2.72) has generally been good but gets no run support. The Padres have scored 13 runs for him in his seven starts. Not many Royals have seen him.
Key trends: The "under" is 10-1 in Cashner's past 11 after a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 6-2 in Shields' past eight starts during Game 3 of a series.
Early lean: My favorite under of the day despite the low number.
Phillies at Blue Jays (-115, 7.5)
Toronto will be missing a regular for this game and at least a couple more as third baseman Brett Lawrie left Monday's game because of tightness in his right hamstring. Lawrie (.229, 6 HRs, 21 RBIs) has decent numbers overall but had entered Monday red hot with multiple hits in seven of his past 10 games. He was hitting.467 (14-for-30) over his past seven before Monday, when he was 0-for-2 before exiting. The Jays need all the offense they can get against Philly's Cliff Lee (3-2, 3.00). Melky Cabrera is 5-for-15 with a homer off Lee. The Jays start fellow lefty Mark Buehrle (5-1, 2.25). He has been great except for one start. Perhaps Jayson Nix gets a spot start here (DH?) as he's 6-for-16 with two homers off Buehrle.
Key trends: The Phillies are 4-0 in Lee's past four road starts. The Jays are 10-4 in Buehrle's past 14 at home. The under is 8-0 in Lee's last 11 on Wednesday.
Early lean: Should be another pitching duel. Go under here (+100) as well.
Cardinals at Braves (+119, 7)
Atlanta is the biggest home dog on the board. The Braves are scuffling so bad offensively that they used pitcher Aaron Harang in the eighth batting spot in the order on Monday instead of the normal No. 9. They have lost seven straight entering Tuesday and totaled 13 runs. Thus, lefty Mike Minor may have to pitch a shutout for Atlanta to win. He allowed just two runs in seven innings in his season debut last time out vs. the Giants but lost because Atlanta managed a single run. Matt Holliday is a career .333 hitter with a homer off Minor. The Cards start Adam Wainwright (5-2, 2.16). He was shelled last time out at the Cubs. Wainwright was 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two 2013 starts vs. the Braves.
Key trends: The Cardinals are 1-8 in their past nine road games against lefties. Atlanta is 8-2 in Minor's past 10 against teams with a winning record. The Braves are 4-0 in Minor's past four vs. St. Louis.
Early lean: Atlanta will snap out of this at some point. So take the Braves as solid dog value.
Rockies at Rangers (-125, 9.5)
To no surprise this is the highest total on Wednesday even though the series shifts from Denver to Arlington. Do you still think playing 81 games a year in Coors Field doesn't inflate the statistics of the Rockies hitters? Entering Tuesday, Troy Tulowitzki, as one example, is batting an obscene.596 at home compared to .250 on the road. He has never faced Texas starter Colby Lewis (2-1, 4.22). Neither has third baseman Nolan Arenado, who entered Tuesday on a 25-game hitting streak. The Rockies start Jorge De La Rosa (3-3, 5.11). The team has won his past three starts. Prince Fielder is a .273 hitter with four RBIs off him.
Key trends: Colorado is 6-1 in De La Rosa's past seven against teams with a winning record. The Rangers have lost four straight at home.
Early lean: Texas ends its home skid.
Yankees at Angels (-130, 8.5)
Let me make it clear this won't happen, but it's time for the Yankees to make Derek Jeter a part-time/platoon player. He has three hits in his past 30 at-bats entering Tuesday and is batting .250 with no power whatsoever. Jeter is also not a good defensive player. This will be his final big-league game in L.A./Anaheim barring a playoff meeting with the Halos or Dodgers. Jeter is 3-for-5 with a home run in his career off Angels starter Hector Santiago (0-5, 5.01). Santiago pitched in Yankee Stadium on April 26 and allowed four runs in 4.1 innings. New York starts fellow lefty Vidal Nuno (0-0, 6.87). He allowed three runs in 4.1 innings on April 26 against the Angels. Mike Trout hit a two-run dinger off him.
Key trends: The Yankees are 1-4 in their past five against lefties. The "over" is 10-0-1 in L.A.'s past 11 at home against left-handers.
Angels should batter Nuno, who shouldn't be in the rotation. Take them and the over at +100.
Doc's Sports MLB handicapping team is offering $60 worth of member's baseball picks absolutely free - no obligation, no sales people - Claim your free MLB picks here now.
Read more articles by Alan Matthews
Most Recent Baseball Handicapping
- 2020 World Series Predictions with Expert Analysis
- Free MLB Picks Thursday 10/1/2020 and Opening Line Report
- Free MLB Picks Wednesday 9/30/2020 and Opening Line Report
- Free MLB Picks Tuesday 9/29/2020 and Opening Line Report
- Free MLB Picks Saturday 9/26/2020 and Opening Line Report
- Free MLB Picks Friday 9/25/2020 and Opening Line Report
- Free MLB Picks Thursday 9/24/2020 and Opening Line Report
- Free MLB Picks Wednesday 9/23/2020 and Opening Line Report
- Free MLB Picks Tuesday 9/22/2020 and Opening Line Report
- Free MLB Picks Saturday 9/19/2020 and Opening Line Report