MLB Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Teams for Runline Wagering
by Ricky Dimon - 7/17/2014
Last year, Boston won it all, and Texas finished just one game out of a playoff spot with an impressive 91-72 record. Well, 2013 ain't walkin' through that
door. The Red Sox and Rangers are now two of the eight worst teams in baseball and two of the three worst teams against the runline. Meanwhile, teams like
the Mets, Padres and White Sox are making bank for their backers.
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San Diego Padres - The Padres scored a laughable 279 runs in the proverbial first half of the season. No other team in all of Major League Baseball crossed the plate fewer than 360 times. On the bright side, though, San Diego has allowed only 329 runs, and it is fourth in the bigs with a team ERA of 3.18. Pitching is why the Padres are hot against the runline right now even though they are relatively cold overall. They lost three of their last four games prior to the break but sported a 4-0 runline record during that stretch, losing 1-0 twice and 2-1 once. San Diego is 9-4 in its last 13 against the runline.
Chicago White Sox - Masters of the close loss, the White Sox are six games under .500 (45-51) overall but six games over .500 against the runline (51-45). They have covered the spread in two of their last three setbacks, and they have come through for bettors in seven losses since June 20. Chicago's runline record is 9-2 in its last 11 games, during which it is 6-5 straight up. Rookie sensation Jose Abreu is batting .360 with four home runs in July. With 29 homers in total, Abreu is -180 to lead the majors in that prestigious department.
Los Angeles Angels - The Angels are so good in general (57-37) that they inevitably have been a boon for any and all of their backers (53-41 against the runline). Mike Trout and company beat people and usually beat them bad. L.A. has a run differential of +89, which is second-best in the majors behind American League West-rival Oakland (also the only team with a better record than the Angels). Against the runline, the Angels are 4-0 in their last four, 7-2 in their last nine, and 15-6 in their last 21.
Milwaukee Brewers - Milwaukee was the team to beat at the start of the season, but to say things have gone downhill in July would be an understatement. The Brewers are 1-7 in their last eight games (1-7 runline) and 2-11 in their last 13 (2-11 runline). Pitching has suddenly become a serious problem as the team gave up 39 runs in a stretch of five losses before finally winning a game last Sunday against St. Louis. That 11-2 victory signaled the first time Milwaukee limited an opponent to fewer than three runs since July 5, also the last date on which they had won a game.
Boston Red Sox - What happens when you get a defending World Series Champion with high expectations heading into the following season that is suddenly in last place in its division? You get an awful runline record, of course. Boston is 43-52 overall and a horrendous 39-56 against the runline, the latter mark leaving the team as third worst in baseball in that department. The Red Sox are 4-1 in their last five overall, but they failed to cover in one of those games, and they are 3-10 in their last 13 against the runline. Mike Napoli and Xander Bogaerts are batting .205 and .132 in July, respectively.
Los Angeles Dodgers - The Dodgers may be on top of their division, but while their L.A. rivals are tearing it up against the runline, they are not doing much for their bettors. Despite having won three of their last four games, Yasiel Puig and friends have a 0-6 runline record in their last six. They are 2-10 in their last 12 against the runline. Each of their last three victories and five of their last seven have come by just a single run. That being said, L.A.'s runline record is 26-20 on the road (compared to 20-29 at home). The Dodgers' first nine games after the break will come as visitors. They are +500 favorites to win the World Series.
New York Mets - You cannot make this stuff up, folks: the New York Mets are the most lucrative team in baseball at the all-star break. They are 57-38 against the runline, three games clear of Seattle in that department and 3.5 games better than the Angels and Royals. New York has won six of its last eight contests (6-2 runline). Overall, the team is 3-0 in its last three and 7-1 in its last eight. In his last three starts, Zack Wheeler is 2-0 with just three runs allowed in 19.1 innings. The Mets are +5000 to win the National League East; Washington is a -200 favorite.
Texas Rangers - Tampa Bay had a stranglehold on last place against the runline for much of the season, but no more. Texas' runline record is currently 35-60, one game worse than the Rays' 37-50 clip. No other team has fewer than 39 runline wins, and only one other club has fewer than 41 (Boston). Yes, the Rangers are bad. At 38-57 overall (worst team in baseball), they have lost eight in a row (0-8 runline), 14 of 15 (1-14 runline), and 19 of 21 (3-18 runline). Yu Darvish is +2500 to win the American League Cy Young Award; Felix Hernandez and Scott Kazmir are +250 co-favorites.
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