MLB Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Teams for Runline Wagering
by Ricky Dimon - 5/8/2014
More than a month into the season, teams have been given time to fluctuate wildly both on the field and in terms of profitability. Out of nowhere, the
Braves have become far and away the best team for bettors to fade. Meanwhile, the Rockies are making an impressive move in the other direction.
All odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
Detroit Tigers - The Tigers are 8-0 in their last eight overall and 10-1 in their last 11. They are not quite as on fire against the runline due to a pair of one-run victories in the current eight-game stretch, but they are still 6-1 in their last seven in that department. Detroit is 20-9 overall but still a mere 13-16 against the runline. After all, it takes a while to overcome its start (the last time we checked in, Detroit was dead last against the runline at 2-9). The current best team in baseball is 7-2 in one-run games, second best in Major League Baseball behind Tampa Bay.
Los Angeles Dodgers - The Dodgers' 22-13 runline mark is the second best in baseball. They have lost three of their last five games overall, but they are 4-1 in their last five against the runline. L.A. covered in one-run road losses at Miami on Sunday and at Washington on Wednesday. Adrian Gonzalez has helped ease the pain of Clayton Kershaw's absence with nine home runs and 26 RBIs. Kershaw returned from injury on Tuesday in an 8-3 win over the Nationals. The Dodgers (Beckett) are -139 home favorites over San Francisco (Vogelsong) on Thursday . They are +150 to cover the -1.5 runline.
Minnesota Twins - Minnesota is just 3-4 in its last seven overall, but it is 5-2 against the runline during that span. The team is in fourth place in the American League Central (15-17) but also fourth place in all of Major League Baseball in terms of the runline (19-13). Two of the Twins' last four losses have come via 4-3 decisions in which they covered; one against the Dodgers and again versus Cleveland on Wednesday.
Atlanta Braves - The second-best team in baseball as recently as April 28, the Braves are suddenly in the midst of a historically bad runline stretch. Even worse than losing eight of their last nine overall, they are 0-10 in their last 10 against the runline. They have not covered a runline since beating Cincinnati 4-1 back on April 26. The problem is that Atlanta cannot score, which is a big reason why eight of its 18 wins have come by one run-including a whopping five by margins of either 1-0 or 2-1. Atlanta's 105 runs scored are second worst in the bigs.
Cleveland Indians - The Indians made a memorable push to the playoffs last season with a 92-70 record before losing the wild-card game to Tampa Bay. They are off to a slower start this time around, with a 15-19 overall mark and a 14-20 effort against the runline. Cleveland's runline record is a horrendous 3-9 in its last 12. The team has scored only 131 runs, second fewest in the American League. It has crossed the plate more than four times in a game only once since April 24.
Boston Red Sox - Boston is not particularly cold, but it has dropped three consecutive games against the runline despite having won two straight overall. The defending World Series Champions defeated Cincinnati 4-3 on both Tuesday and Wednesday, covering on neither occasion. Their runline record is 2-5 in their last seven and a modest 14-20 for the season. The Red Sox are +650 to win the AL Pennant and +1400 to win the Fall Classic.
Colorado Rockies - Colorado is an impressive 22-14 overall, good for the third-best record in the National League and the fourth-best in all of baseball. The Rockies are 24-12 against the runline, 1.5 games better than NL West foe Los Angeles. They have not lost two games in a row since April 13-14. They lost two straight against the runline from May 3-4 for the first time since their first two games of the season. Colorado is still just +800 to win its division.
Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa Bay's 15-19 record is better than the mark of four National League teams and considerably superior to Houston's 10-24 clip. In terms of the runline, however, nobody is worse than the Rays. They are 11-23 in that department, which can be explained by the fact that six of their 15 victories have come by just a single run (they are a stellar 6-1 in one-run games). Tampa is a +250 second choice along with Boston to win the American League East; the Yankees are +180 favorites.
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