MLB Betting Advice: Hot and Cold Teams for Runline Wagering
by Ricky Dimon - 7/1/2014
We are right at the halfway point of the Major League Baseball season and rapidly approaching the all-star break. It cannot come soon enough for the Tampa
Bay Rays, who are the worst team in the business both overall and against the runline. Another division cellar-dweller, Houston in the American League
West, has as many runline wins as any other team in the bigs.
All odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
Pittsburgh Pirates - All anyone could and should talk about last week was Josh Harrison's epic rundown against the Mets, in which he successfully dodged, ducked, dipped, dove, and dodged his way to third base during a 3-2 Pittsburgh win. But people better take note of the Pirates in the money-making department as they are 13-5 against the runline since June 11. For the entire month, they boast a 20-7 runline record. Andrew McCutchen is hitting .343 with eight home runs and 25 RBIs in June.
Chicago White Sox - No team has covered the runline more frequently in losses than the White Sox over the past two weeks. Chicago is a modest 4-6 overall in its last 10, but it is 7-3 against the runline in those games, with four losses by one run. The team has been playing close games left and right of late; seven of its last 12 contests have been decided by one run, and an additional three during the current stretch have ended with a margin of two runs. The White Sox are +10000 to win the AL Pennant; Oakland is a +160 favorite.
Cincinnati Reds - The Reds have won five in a row (5-0 runline) and eight of their last nine (7-2 runline). To the delight of its backers, Cincinnati generally wins big when it wins. It has won three straight games by four runs, and eight of its last nine victories have come by more than one run. That being said, the Reds do by far their most prolific work as underdogs. They are 30-14 against the runline as underdogs compared to just a 14-23 runline mark as favorites.
Minnesota Twins - In a four-game stretch between June 15 and 18, Minnesota covered the runline in four consecutive one-run losses. Fast forward two weeks and the Twins are cold in general and now cold against the runline, too. They have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine outings, a stretch that includes three straight one-run wins in which opponents won against the runline. Six games in a row saw Minnesota give up at least five runs before the team notched a 3-2 victory at Texas on Sunday.
Miami Marlins - Miami managed to cover its game spread in a pair of losses to Oakland on Saturday and Sunday, but to say this team has still not been profitable of late would be a considerable understatement. The Marlins are 5-14 against the runline since June 11. You may not want to fade this team, however, when Henderson Alvarez takes the mound. The 24-year-old righty is helping to compensate for the loss of Jose Fernandez with a 5-3 record and 2.42 ERA in 16 starts. In games started by Alvarez, Miami is 8-0 in its last eight (6-2 runline) and 10-1 in its last 11 (9-2 runline).
Texas Rangers - Recently, the Rangers have been dismal overall (2-9 in their last 11 games) and just as bad against the runline (2-9). They are a whopping 14 games out of first place in their division, although part of that can be attributed to playing in an AL West that hosts baseball's best team (Oakland at 51-30). Interestingly, Texas owns a decent runline record (21-19) on the road but it has an abysmal 13-28 runline mark at home. The Rangers (Saunders) are +1.5 underdogs at Baltimore (Jimenez) on Monday.
Houston Astros - Don't look now, but Houston has the most wins against the runline this season (tied with Seattle and the New York Mets at 49). The Astros are a mediocre 4-6 overall in their last 10 games, but they have won four in a row and five of six against the runline. They have a runline record of 17-8 since June 3. Jose Altuve is batting .414 in June with seven doubles and 15 stolen bases. The 24-year-old second baseman has stolen two bases in four consecutive games and has at least one swipe in six straight outings.
Tampa Bay Rays - The Rays are 4-1 against the runline in their last five games, but with a runline record of 30-54 they are still comfortably in last place in the entire major leagues in that department (San Diego has the second worst runline mark at 32-50). Tampa Bay's 35-49 overall clip leaves it tied in the MLB's cellar with Arizona and 10 games back of first-place Toronto in the AL East. If there is some good news in Tampa, it's that David Price has made six straight quality starts and has went at least eight innings in his past four outings.
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