MLB Totals Betting Trends Report
by Aaron Smith - 7/1/2014
In the last totals trends report I mentioned the fact that the 'over' had consistently been ahead of the 'under' in the season-to-date numbers. I also mentioned that there were likely going to be some major fluctuations as the season continued. As it turns out, the under has been on amazing run throughout baseball in the past couple weeks. In the past month, the under has cashed in 210 times and the over just 181 times. In the past seven days, the under is cashing in at a 55.3% percent rate. This under streak has totally changed the overall season numbers as well. For the season thus far, the under is now 591- 581. Needless to say, on this report it was much easier to find teams on an under streak than teams on an over streak.
Betting on totals can be a wise way to make money when betting on baseball. Following trends can be a profitable strategy over the course of the long baseball season. Doc's Sports is going to keep a close eye on baseball totals trends through the 2014 season. This will be a bi-weekly article designed to help you get an edge on the books. The data in this particular article is for games played between June 10 and June 30.
Top Five "Over" Teams (Over Listed Then Under)
1. Colorado Rockies (14-3-2) There was one notable exception to the massive under trend in Major League Baseball in recent weeks, and it was the Colorado Rockies. You might think that without Gonzalez, Arenado, and Cuddyer that this offense would struggle. In reality, the offense has held up its end of the deal. It has been the starting rotation and the bullpen that has completely collapsed. Colorado is just 2-12 in their last 14 games despite having the best batting average in the majors at .285.
2. San Francisco Giants (11-7) Anything that could go wrong has gone wrong for the San Francisco Giants in recent weeks. The Giants are 3-12 in their last 15 games overall. They had built up a substantial lead in the NL West, but it's already gone. The bullpen that was the best in baseball for a while has struggled in the last couple weeks. Matt Cain has had a monumental struggle on the mound all year, and he is a guy this team counts on in the rotation.
3. Kansas City Royals (11-8) There isn't a streakier team in baseball. One week they look like World Series contenders, and the next week they look like cellar-dwellers. The offense started the season ice cold, it has steadily picked up its production in the past few weeks. Kansas City is dead last in home runs, but they have the fourth best batting average in baseball at .265. This is a team that needs to manufacture runs in order to win.
4. Milwaukee Brewers (11-8-1) Milwaukee has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. This was a team that was pegged by many to be right around .500, but they have led right from the beginning in the very difficult NL Central. They'll have to keep their foot on the gas, because they have some high-quality teams behind them. Everyone knows Ryan Braun is a hitting star, but Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez have been key for this offense this season.
5. Detroit Tigers (10-8-1) The Detroit Tigers have the best combination in the middle of the order in baseball with Cabrera and Martinez. This is a team that is going to score a bunch of runs this year. At the same time, the bullpen is among the worst in baseball, and the starting rotation hasn't been nearly as good as many expected.
Top Five "Under" Teams (Under Listed Then Over)
1. San Diego Padres (15-4-1) The oddsmakers just can't set a low enough number on Padres games. How bad is this offense and how good is the pitching staff? San Diego has won twice this year by getting only one hit. That is the first time a team has done it twice in the same year since 1965 when the Dodgers did it twice. The Padres actually did it twice in the month of June. At what point do the oddsmakers catch up to this awful offense and strong pitching staff?
2. St. Louis Cardinals (13-4-2) The St. Louis Cardinals offense has underachieved all year. This is an offense that I expected to be the best in the National League. I still think they'll get better, but their current level of 3.70 runs per game is just abysmal. Allen Craig, Matt Holliday, and Jhonny Peralta are all in a serious slump. If the oddsmakers start lining the Cardinals games too low, don't be afraid to start taking the over. This offense is certainly better than it has shown.
3. Minnesota Twins (12-4-3) The Twins offense lit it up early in the season. It's coming back to earth quickly. Chris Colabello led the team in RBIs early this year, but he's now in Triple-A working on his swing. Joe Mauer is having a subpar season by his standards, and this team really lacks hitting stars. Minnesota has an overall team batting average of .243.
4. Boston Red Sox (14-6) There's really no way to spin this one into a positive. Boston is here because their offense hasn't been any good all season. This is an offense that everyone assumed would be right at the top of the majors in runs scored. Instead, they are short-handed and searching for answers with their lineup.
5. Baltimore Orioles (14-6) Baltimore is third in the majors with a .265 overall team batting average. It's not so much the offense getting way worse or the pitching staff being tons better that has them here, but rather it's the oddsmakers just lining their games a little too high. It's a case of the numbers just getting too high. This should level out soon.
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