MLB Totals Betting Trends Report
by Aaron Smith - 7/23/2014
The all-star break is in the rear view mirror, and now it is time for the true contenders to step up. Most of the divisions are still totally up for grabs, and there are plenty of teams that have a real opportunity if they heat up at the right time. With the extra wild card in place now, there are even more teams that have a realistic shot at the postseason. A little more than two months is left in the regular season. The boys of summer are front and center in the sports world right now.
Betting on totals can be a wise way to make money when betting on baseball. Following trends can be a profitable strategy over the course of the long baseball season. Doc's Sports is going to keep a close eye on baseball totals trends through the 2014 season. This will be a bi-weekly article designed to help you get an edge on the books. The data in this particular article is for games played between July 1 and July 21.
Top Five "Over" Teams (Over Listed Then Under)
1. Philadelphia Phillies (12-5) The usually-hapless Phillies offense has awoken from its season-long slumber a bit the last few weeks. Philadelphia's offense lit up Milwaukee's pitching in a surprising sweep of the Brewers at Miller Park right before the break. At the same time, the pitching staff is far from what it used to be. This is a team that is firmly pointing in the wrong direction.
2. Chicago Cubs (10-5-1) Here's another offense that has been bad the majority of the season, but they are heating up in a big way lately. Arismendy Alcantara has been a great spark for the offense. Chicago has scored at least five runs in five of their last nine games overall. The team now has 88 home runs, which is good for 12 th in the majors.
3. Texas Rangers (11-6) Texas is used to contending for the World Series, but right now they are in the cellar in the AL West. It doesn't take long to figure out why they are in such bad shape. Texas is dead last in the majors in team WHIP at 1.50. That's a ton of base runners allowed. The Rangers are also dead last in errors with 70. The pitching staff isn't any good, and the defense just makes matters worse.
4. Miami Marlins (10-6) Miami's offense has overachieved for much of the year. It's pretty surprising to me to see them at No. 12 in the majors in runs scored per game at 4.14 per contest. Miami is slowly beginning to lose touch with the .500 mark though, and I think a poor stretch from the offense is likely. I'm looking for spots to take the under with Miami in the coming weeks.
5. Tampa Bay Rays (8-5-2) It sounded crazy a few weeks ago, but the Tampa Bay Rays are at least within striking distance in the American League East. Baltimore leads by four games, but the rest of the division is a big logjam. Tampa Bay's recent hot streak has been spurred by some much improved hitting. The next couple weeks are crucial for the Rays.
Top Five "Under" Teams (Under Listed Then Over)
1. Colorado Rockies (10-3-3) The Colorado Rockies offense has finally cooled off. Injuries have started to catch up to this team. Justin Morneau has been great for Colorado, but he just went on the disabled list. Troy Tulowitzki has missed the last couple games, and missing him crushes the offense. Carlos Gonzalez doesn't seem completely healthy. The Rockies are 14-39 in their last 53 games.
2. Seattle Mariners (11-5) Seattle's pitching staff has surprised everyone this year. King Felix is always great, but the rest of the rotation has been a major positive. In addition, the Mariners have the top-ranked bullpen at this point in the year, which is nothing short of stunning. Seattle's team ERA is an impressive 3.11. The offense has been up and down, but the pitching staff is carrying this team.
3. San Diego Padres (10-5-1) It wouldn't be a totals trends report if the Padres weren't on the Top 5 of this side of the report. This offense is historically bad. San Diego is averaging 2.97 runs per game and is hitting .215 as a team. Don't expect that to improve now that they traded away Chase Headley, who has been one of their most consistent hitters. The pitching staff is good overall, and the bullpen is excellent. For the year, the Padres have had 64 games finish under the total and just 30 go over.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (10-5-1) Arizona played like the worst team in baseball early this year, but they have finally been competitive of late. The Diamondbacks aren't going to have one of the worst records in the league, but they are going to be a disappointment regardless. Paul Goldschmitt is a beast, but the rest of the offense isn't good enough. Arizona needs to make some moves to improve this coming offseason.
5. Toronto Blue Jays (6-10) Toronto's offense is suffering without Edwin Encarnacion. He's become a great run producer, and Toronto is relatively thin on the bench, so he's very tough to replace. Toronto is now just 51-49 and four games back in the AL East after having a large lead earlier this year. I don't see things getting better anytime soon for the Jays.
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