MLB World Series Betting: Game 6 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 10/27/2014
This will be my last opening line report story of the 2014 baseball season. Hopefully you found these informative and won a few dollars at the sportsbook of your choice. Spring training is less than four months away!
Let's hope the Kansas City Royals win Game 6 of the World Series back at home vs. San Francisco on Tuesday, although I did project Giants in six before the Fall Classic began. I'd definitely like to see a Game 7, although I will have to switch back and forth from the baseball to the Bulls-Knicks NBA opener on Wednesday. The last Game 7 of a World Series was in 2011 when the Cardinals -- at home -- beat the Texas Rangers. Before that you had to go back to 2002 when the Angels beat the Giants in seven games. I do think another World Series title stamps San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy's ticket to Cooperstown.
Should the World Series end Tuesday, I think it's fair to expect that Giants ace Madison Bumgarner will win the World Series MVP Award. He was dominant in a Game 1 victory and even better in Game 5 on Sunday, throwing a complete-game four-hitter. He is now an amazing 4-0 with a 0.29 ERA in four career World Series starts with just 12 hits allowed in 31 innings. That's the lowest World Series ERA ever for a pitcher with at least 25 innings. There hadn't been a World Series complete-game shutout since 2003 by the Marlins' Josh Beckett in the clinching Game 6 against the Yankees. I would imagine that Bumgarner would be available for an inning or two out of the bullpen if needed in a potential Game 7. No road team has won Game 7 of the World Series since the 1979 Pirates, and only four road teams have won a Game 6 since 1980 -- the 2003 Marlins, 1997 Indians, '92 Blue Jays and '81 Dodgers.
In Kansas City's last World Series trip it also trailed 3-2 in the series to St. Louis but won the next two back at home. Since 1982, teams down 3-2 going home for Games 6 and 7 have won eight of 10 World Series. However, of the previous 41 Fall Classics where the series was tied at two, the Game 5 winner took it home 27 times. San Francisco is a -260 series favorite at Sportsbook.ag with the Royals at +220. On the total games prop, six is +120 and seven -150. yet Giants winning in six is the +120 series exact result favorite. Giants and Royals in seven are both +250.
Game 6: Giants at Royals (-137, 7)
On the "over/under," the over is a -115 favorite. The Giants are -180 on the runline with the Royals at +157. Jake Peavy gets the call for San Francisco on Tuesday in what could be his final start in a Giants uniform, although I'm guessing the team does make a concerted effort to re-sign the free agent. San Francisco has lost his past two playoff starts. He went in Game 2, a 7-2 Royals home victory. Peavy allowed four earned runs and six hits in five innings -- he also faced two batters in the sixth, allowing a Lorenzo Cain single and walking Eric Hosmer. Peavy was then pulled despite throwing only 66 pitches in favor of Jean Machi. Billy Butler immediately greeted Machi with a two-run single. Overall in the postseason, Peavy is 1-4 with a 7.05 ERA in eight starts in his career. Last year pitching for the Red Sox against the Cardinals in Game 3 in St. Louis, Peavy was pulled after four innings, allowing two runs on six hits. He was potentially set up to start a Game 7 had there been one.
Peavy didn't face the Royals during the regular season. Butler hammers him, going 14-for-33 with three homers and eight RBIs. He will be back in the lineup with the designated hitter back in play. Butler only pinch hit in one of the three games in San Francisco. Alex Gordon also hits Peavy well, going 10-for-28 with a homer and five RBIs. Alcides Escobar is 9-for-22 with two homers and eight RBIs off him.
Rookie right-hander Yordano Ventura goes for the Royals. He is 0-0 with a 4.42 ERA in four playoff appearances. He also pitched in Game 2, allowing two runs and eight hits in 5.1 innings. Gregor Blanco hit a leadoff homer off him in the top of the first. Brandon Belt hit an RBI double in the top of the fourth. Ventura was relieved after Hunter Pence reached on an infield single in the top of the sixth, putting runners on first and second. Kelvin Herrera got the next two guys out. San Francisco no doubt will use Michael Morse as its DH. He had a hit in each of the first two games as the DH in Kansas City.
Key trends: The Giants are 5-0 in Peavy's past five starts on five days of rest. They are 7-1 in Peavy's past eight with the total set between 7-8.5 runs. The Royals are 7-0 in their past seven when their opponent allows two runs or fewer in its previous game. K.C. is 12-2 in its past 14 against right-handers. It is 6-1 in Ventura's past seven starts at home. The over/under has gone over in four of Peavy's past five as a dog. The over is 5-1 in Ventura's past six.
Early lean: Weather won't be a factor, although it may be slightly chilly by first pitch. But zero percent chance of rain, so that's good. Ditto Wednesday. I like K.C., with Butler's bat back in the lineup, forcing a Game 7. Go over.
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