NBA Odds and Predictions: Friday, November 28 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 11/27/2014
The Thanksgiving day off in the NBA schedule is a good time to check out some updated NBA futures at Sportsbook.ag as every team is about 20 percent through its schedule or will be soon. Not much has changed. Cavs-Spurs remains the NBA Finals favored matchup, albeit at a longer +650. Cavs-Warriors is next at +800. Cleveland has risen to +120 to win the East, and San Antonio up to +250 to take the West. LeBron James remains the MVP favorite at +140, but Anthony Davis and Stephen Curry (+300) are right on his tail. Here's a look at every Friday matchup on a busy day.
Bulls at Celtics (TBA)
Rare weekday matinee on Black Friday here. And of course the line is TBA because of the ultra-frustrating Derrick Rose. He played Monday but lasted only 10 minutes on Tuesday when he felt some tightness in his left hamstring. Rose doesn't think this one is serious, but I fully expect him to sit. Joakim Noah sat out Tuesday's loss in Denver with a minor eye injury and fluid in his surgically-repaired knee. I'd be surprised if he plays. And expect power forward Taj Gibson to sit a third straight game with an ankle injury. Boston enters having lost five of six but surprised the Bulls 106-101 in Chicago on Nov. 8. I take little from that because neither Rose nor Rajon Rondo played.
Key trends: The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their past four on the road. The "over/under" has gone over in seven of Boston's past nine following a loss.
Early lean: Too early to tell, but if those three guys all sit take Boston to win outright.
Warriors at Hornets (+8, 199.5)
With all due respect to Memphis or Toronto, I think that Golden State is the best team in the NBA right now. The Warriors enter this one on a seven-game winning streak and are a terrific 7-1 on the road. Curry is on fire right now, hitting 63.2 percent from the field for 40 points in a blowout win in Miami on Tuesday and then 9-for-13 for 28 points in a blowout win in Orlando the next night. Charlotte has lost seven straight, and Coach Steve Clifford benched Lance Stephenson for much of the second half in Wednesday's loss to Portland. On Nov. 15 in Oakland, the Warriors trashed Charlotte 112-87.
Key trends: Golden State is 11-2 ATS in its past 13 after a win. The over is 4-0 in Charlotte's past four overall.
Early lean: This total seems way too low with how bad defensively the Hornets have been. Like over more than the side.
Pelicans at Hawks (-3, 204.5)
First meeting of the season between these two, and both enter off a loss Wednesday. The Pelicans were beaten 99-89 at home by Sacramento. Davis had a rare off game with 14 points on just 12 shots. The good news was that starting center Omer Asik returned after missing four games with a back injury, although he had just three points and seven boards in 26 minutes. Atlanta lost 126-115 at home to Toronto last time out. Bit of a trap game there as the Hawks had won in Washington the night before. The Hawks played without swingman Thabo Sefolosha due to an illness, but he should return.
Key trends: Atlanta is 3-13 ATS in its past 16 vs. the West. The over is 8-1 in the Pelicans' past nine vs. the East.
Early lean: Atlanta and under (so I clearly don't care about the trends).
Mavericks at Raptors (-3, 208.5)
This should be an entertaining matchup as Dallas is No. 1 in the NBA in scoring and Toronto No. 2. The Mavs ended their first two-game skid of the season on Wednesday with a harder-than-it-should-have-been 109-102 home OT win over a Knicks team missing Carmelo Anthony. Former Knick Tyson Chandler set season highs with 17 points and 25 rebounds. Dallas is still waiting on the season debut of point guard Raymond Felton, acquired with Chandler from the Knicks this summer. It could come here. Toronto (13-2) is atop the Eastern Conference and enters on a six-game winning streak. The Raptors scored a season-high 126 points in Wednesday's win in Atlanta.
Key trends: Dallas has covered six straight Friday games. It is 0-4 ATS in its past four in Toronto.
Early lean: Toronto and over.
Bucks at Pistons (TBA)
It's a good thing that Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy is his own boss, because Detroit (3-12) is awful and enters this one on six-game skid in which the Pistons haven't reached triple digits in any of them. They played the last two without starting point guard Brandon Jennings due to a thumb injury, and he's questionable (thus the TBA). On Tuesday the Pistons lost 98-86 in Milwaukee despite 23 points and 10 rebounds from Andre Drummond. The Bucks followed that win with a 103-86 victory in Minnesota on Wednesday night. Detroit did beat visiting Milwaukee 98-95 on Nov. 7.
Key trends: The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The under is 5-2 in Milwaukee's past seven on the road.
Early lean: Actually think Detroit wins whether Jennings plays or not.
Magic at Pacers (-5, 191.5)
Two offensively-challenged teams here. The Magic have lost three straight and not scored more than 96 in any of them. Tobias Harris returned from a two-game injury absence in Wednesday's 111-96 loss to Golden State and had 16 points and 10 rebounds. He's having a nice season. No team has had more injury problems than Indiana, and it's not clear if center Roy Hibbert will return for this one after missing two straight with a sprained left ankle. There's an outside shot David West makes his season debut. Point guard George Hill won't, however.
Key trends: The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their past seven on the road. The under is 4-0 in Indiana's past four at home. The under is 4-0-1 in the past five meetings.
Early lean: Under, under, under!
Clippers at Rockets (TBA)
No line here due to the status of Houston's Dwight Howard. He's recovering from a strained knee that prompted him to get platelet-rich plasma injections last week. Howard has missed four straight games, three of which Houston won, and I wouldn't look for him Friday. Ditto point guard Patrick Beverley (hamstring). The Clippers have won two straight and four of five on their seven-game road trip. Los Angeles swept Houston last year, and none of them were very close.
Key trends: The Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The under is 9-0 in Houston's past nine at home.
Early lean: Clippers win outright and go over with Houston missing two key defenders.
Knicks at Thunder (-6.5, 187)
This is the most intriguing game of the night even though the Knicks and Thunder are each near the bottom of their conference. That's because it looks as if Russell Westbrook will make his season debut for Oklahoma City, and there's even a chance that Kevin Durant will too. At 4-12, OKC really has to start winning soon if one presumes it will take at least 48 victories to reach the playoffs in the ultra-deep Western Conference. Thus, Westbrook and Durant may be rushing back a bit to save the season. Don't look for New York star Carmelo Anthony here after he sat out Wednesday's game with back spasms.
Key trends: New York is 1-7 ATS in its past eight vs. teams with a losing record. OKC is 1-9 ATS in its past 10 vs. the East. The under is 5-0 in the Thunder's past five at home.
Early lean: How can there possibly be an opening line on this game? Seriously, I am baffled. Hold off for now.
Kings at Spurs (TBA)
Sacramento avoided disaster Wednesday when star center DeMarcus Cousins suffered a knee injury a loss in Houston. He went down in the third quarter grabbing the knee in pain. It certainly didn't show in the stat line as Cousins, who didn't even leave the game, had 29 points, 17 rebounds and six assists. He says he's fine and should play here. However, the Kings don't know about their starting backcourt of Darren Collison and Rudy Gay. Both missed Wednesday's game with injuries, but they are considered minor and both could return. The Spurs have won five straight and played without Coach Gregg Popovich on Wednesday due to a minor medical procedure. He's not expected on the bench here, either. Ettore Messina became the first European-born coach to run an NBA team in the regular season in Pop's place Wednesday. The Spurs lost in Sacramento 94-91 on Nov. 15. It ended San Antonio's nine-game winning streak in the series.
Key trends: The Kings are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 6-2 in the Spurs' past eight at home.
Early lean: Spurs roll here.
Suns at Nuggets (-2.5, 219.5)
It's the second of a home-and-home between these two. On Wednesday in Phoenix, the Suns won 120-112 as Gerald Green's 24 points led seven Phoenix players in double figures. The Suns were without leading scorer Isaiah Thomas, who was on the bench in street clothes with his 15.5 points per game and bruised right ankle. He's questionable for this game. The Nuggets played without guard Randy Foye and center JaVale McGee. Foye is out for weeks, and McGee is probably out at least a few more games. Danilo Gallinari is questionable after missing the second half Wednesday with soreness in his surgically-repaired knee.
Key trends: The Suns are 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 5-1 in the past six.
Early lean: Phoenix and over.
Grizzlies at Trail Blazers (-3.5, 194.5)
Might this be the most interesting matchup of the season thus far? The Grizzlies have the best record in the West, take a three-game winning streak and the NBA's best defense (technically No. 3 in scoring defense, but it's the best) into Portland. The high-scoring Blazers have won an NBA-high nine straight games and have just one home loss, back on Nov. 2 against Golden State. The West is just sick! The Grizzlies won two of three vs. Portland last year but lost the one in the Pacific Northwest. That ended the Blazers' five-game overall losing streak in the series.
Key trends: Memphis is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 4-0 in Portland's past four at home vs. teams with a winning home record.
Early lean: Sportsbooks obviously expecting a Memphis-style pace. I like Portland and over.
Timberwolves at Lakers (TBA)
Two franchises I consider polar opposites in terms of future plans. The Wolves traded their superstar and are undergoing a full-on rebuild with some very nice young pieces. They know they can't lure top free agents. The Lakers won't/can't trade their superstar and have no young talent to rebuild around other than maybe Julius Randle, who is out for the season. L.A. is banking on luring stars through free agency in the next year or two. Minnesota has lost three straight and eight of nine. Point guard Mo Williams, who has been starting with Ricky Rubio out indefinitely, missed the last game with an illness but should return. L.A. has lost three straight and has one home win all season: Nov. 9 vs. Charlotte. The Wolves and Lakers are the two worst defensive teams in the NBA.
Key trends: The Wolves are 1-8 ATS in their past nine. The over is 6-1 in Minnesota's past seven.
Early lean: Really not sure why no line here. It can't be for Mo Williams! Lakers will win, and go over regardless of number.
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