Tracking the Nationals: Season-Long MLB Picks and Handicapping for Washington Baseball
by Dave Schwab - 6/2/2014
If you like to wager on MLB games and you are looking for an edge to building your bankroll, you should consider the betting strategy of specialization. Doc's Sports has decided to release free MLB picks each week for the Washington Nationals during the entire MLB regular season to help prove the point that concentrating your handicapping efforts on a single team results in building familiarity, which in turn helps make that team more predictable. My goal with these free picks is to earn a long-term profit using this betting strategy with Washington as that single team.
Doc's Unit Betting System is a vital part of a proper money management plan for wagering on sports, so I will include a recommended unit value with all my picks. Doc's will publish these free picks once or twice a week, so be sure to take advantage of this specialized betting approach by checking our home page daily to follow along with my progress.
Washington Nationals Free Picks, Odds and Predictions
Tuesday, June 3, 7:05 p.m. EST (Nationals Park)
Philadelphia at Washington MLB Free Picks, Odds and Predictions
The Washington Nationals will wrap up their current nine-game homestand with a three-game series against the NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies starting with Game 1 this Tuesday night in a 7:05 p.m. start.
The Phillies will first have to try to close out an extended five-game series against the New York Mets with a win on Monday after losing three of the first four games this past weekend. The Phillies are now six games off the pace in the NL East with an overall record of 24-30. They have actually played better on the road this season with a 12-12 record in 24 games away from Citizens Bank Park.
Washington's bats exploded for a total of 19 runs in back-to-back victories over Texas in the first two games of this past weekend's three-game interleague series, but the Nationals could not pull off the sweep in a 2-0 loss on Sunday as +107 home underdogs on the closing moneyline. They are now 3-7 in their last 10 games and 3.5-games in back of Atlanta in the division title race. Washington is 16-15 at home this year.
Philadelphia at Washington Betting Storylines
It was not all that long ago that Philadelphia had one of the most feared starting rotations in the majors as well as a solid bullpen to back it up, but those days have obviously come to an end over the past few seasons. This year's staff is ranked 13th in the National League with a team ERA of 3.98. The Phillies' bats have also struggled to provide some solid offensive support with a total of 214 runs in 54 games, which is ranked 10th in the NL. A few of the bright spots so far have been the resurgence of Ryan Howard with 39 RBIs and 11 home runs and Marlon Byrd's 32 RBIs and eight homers.
Look for David Buchanan to take the mound for Philadelphia as Tuesday's starter. The 22-year-old right-hander has begun his MLB career on a strong note with back-to-back quality starts. He allowed four runs on seven hits in last Thursday's loss to the Mets in 6 2/3 innings after holding the Los Angeles Dodgers to two earned runs on five hits in five innings of work on May 24 in his MLB debut.
The Nationals are hoping to get third baseman Ryan Zimmerman activated from the disabled list for Tuesday night, but his official status at this time remains questionable. He could add a much-needed spark to a lineup that has proven to be potent at times but lacks the consistency needed to string together some multiple series wins. They have gotten a strong effort from Ian Desmond (32 RBIs and 10 home runs) as well as from Adam LaRoche and Anthony Rendon, who are tied for second on the team in RBIs with 27 apiece.
Jordan Zimmermann will be in the lineup for Game 1 as the Nationals' starter. May was a rough month for the right-hander after he watched his ERA go from 2.92 to 4.07 over the course of his last four starts. Last time out against Miami he was tagged with four runs on eight hits in five innings of work. Overall, he is 3-2 in 11 previous starts and he has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last seven outings. Zimmermann has not lasted longer than six innings in six of those seven games.
Philadelphia at Washington MLB Betting Odds and Key Trends
The Phillies are 14-29 in their last 43 road games against a right-handed starter and 3-8 in Game 1 of their last 11 series. The total has gone "over" in six of their last nine games against a team from their division.
The Nationals are 26-10 in Zimmermann's last 36 starts in Game 1 of a new series and 7-2 in their last nine starts against the NL East when he takes the mound. The total has gone over in 12 of their last 16 division games.
Philadelphia won two of three at home in the first series meeting this season, but it is 1-6 in its last seven road games against Washington. The total has gone over in four of the last five meetings overall.
Philadelphia at Washington Free MLB Picks and Betting Predictions
There are some solid betting trends for a play on the over in this matchup, but I like the Nationals' chances to take advantage of the Phillies' trend of slow starts in a new series with a 3-Unit play on a victory at home in Game 1 on Tuesday night.
Year-to-Date Betting Record: 5-5 (+$214)
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