Betting Odds and Free Picks for MLB Props for Monday
by Dave Schwab - 4/6/2015
A new season of MLB action is officially underway, making it a perfect time to take advantage of a number of special season prop bets as released by BetOnline. These props cover everything from the "over/under" for how many no-hitters will be thrown to the top batting average for any player in the league.
I have gone through all of BetOnline's current special season props to come up with my top three plays that have the best chance to pay off.
Highest Win Total for Any Pitcher
The betting odds for this prop have been set at +140 for over 21.5 wins and at -170 for under. Looking back at the last five seasons, Roy Halladay posted 21 wins in 2010 with Adam Wainwright a close second at 20 wins. Since that point, Justin Verlander led the way the next season with 24 wins, and Gio Gonzalez posted 21 wins in 2012.
Max Scherzer came close to eclipsing this total with 21 wins in 2013 while with Detroit, and this season he is now a part of a stellar starting rotation in Washington. Last season, Clayton Kershaw led the way with 21 wins while Johnny Cueto and Wainwright each posted 20 wins on the year.
The magical mark of 22 wins or more has only been surpassed once in the last five seasons, but I am going with the added value in the over line for this prop given just how close a number of these quality starters have come to matching this feat in recent years.
Highest Win Total for Any Team
The prop bet odds for the over/under on total wins by any team has been set at -120 for over 97.5 wins, and it drops to -110 for the under. Last season, the Los Angeles Angels posted the best record in the Majors at 98-64. That total dropped to 97 wins in 2013 by both Boston and St. Louis, but if you go back even further in time you would find that at least one team has won more than 97 games in four of the previous five seasons.
The Washington Nationals led the majors in pitching last season with a team ERA of 3.03, and we all know that pitching is the key to winning in the MLB. The addition of Scherzer to this lineup has made the Nationals prohibitive favorites to win the NL East this season. Given that they posted 96 wins last year to win the NL East by 17 games, I am taking the over in this prop behind a team that should be able to win at least 100 games this time around in a fairly watered-down division.
Highest RBI Total for Any Batter
The total line for this player prop has been set at -130 for over 124.5 RBI, and it is listed at an even +100 betting odds for the under. There was a major drop off last season at the top of the list for RBI with the Dodgers' Adrian Gonzalez leading the way with 116. Going back from there, this total has not dropped below 126 RBI since the 1994 season, and it has surpassed the 135 mark in 16 of the last 18 seasons.
There is no doubt that the quality of pitching in the Majors could be at an all-time high, but this is a clear situation where the past trends point to some solid value in the over line for this prop despite the added risk in the current money line. I am banking on someone like Nelson Cruz in his new surroundings in Seattle or the Angels' Mike Trout posting a monster year to take this total over the 124.5 RBI mark.
Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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